Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker & Monitor, updated 30 OCT 2026 · 1817Z
Closed.
to commercial shipping · by transit count
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries close to a fifth of the world’s oil. This page tracks, live, whether ships are getting through. New here? Start here →
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is under fresh attack, disrupting transit, and the latest official PortWatch count is 2 vessels on October 25 at 2% of typical; 44 sanctioned vessels seen in the Gulf in the past 12 hours, 0 of them heard from in the past hour; crisis pressure at 88 (extreme) and the Escalation Forecast at 60 (high).
Auto-composed from the live figures · not hand-written
DisruptedStrait under attack
The stakes
Pump figure modeled from live Brent · odds market-implied · not forecasts
vs pre-crisis ~$72 ~+63%
Stale · 1h
Hormuz Indexv0.7.22
How this is computed →Our two 0–100 gauges: how disrupted the strait is right now, and how much escalation markets price in. Read the second as a direction of travel, not a forecast for any fixed day.
On OCT 25, IMF PortWatch's most recent published day, commercial transit through the Strait reached 2% of the pre-crisis vessel count: 2 vessels against a typical 85 per day. War-risk insurance for tankers priced at 32.0× pre-crisis as of 7 Oct, our last trade-press read, with 6 P&I clubs having cancelled war cover for charterers and other non-mutual liability in March 2026 (buy-back cover has been offered since).
Commercial transits
OCT 25 · vs typical 85/day
2
−83 vs pre-crisis
Throughput
% of pre-crisis typical
2%
−98pp vs pre-crisis
War-risk insurance
as of 7 Oct
The cost to insure one supertanker for the passage, vs peacetime.
32.0×est.
+3100% vs pre-crisis
PortWatch counts AIS-broadcasting crossings only. Tankers crossing with transponders off are not counted, and trade press reports such crossings, so true flow runs higher than the figure above.
- 01
Reuters and gCaptain report security sources say a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by limpet mines, causing engine failure.
- 02
Brent crude stood at $117.40, up 3.17% over 24 hours, as of 15:06 UTC.
- 03
IMF PortWatch recorded 2 transits on October 25, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day.
Situation
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with the most significant operational development in this window being a limpet-mine strike on a tanker: Reuters and gCaptain report that security sources say the vessel was hit by limpet mines, causing engine failure. The Maritime Executive separately reports a tanker hit by a limpet-mine attack in the strait; the two reports describe what appears to be the same incident, and it is reported once here. On the incident picture, Iranian state media, relayed by The Maritime Executive and Malay Mail, claim a super tanker struck a mine on an unauthorized route; that claim originated with the IRGC. Reuters, citing two independent desks, reports three oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines, a claim first carried by two other outlets on October 29. The UKMTO, cited by outlets including TRT World and Middle East Eye, reported a vessel on fire and a tanker struck by an unknown projectile; those reports were first carried by three other outlets on October 29, and the attacker has not been identified by any maritime authority. The Revolutionary Guard claims two tankers were stopped south of the strait after incidents, a claim carried by 12 outlets in this window including Arab News and Euronews. On October 30, Splash247 reported "Tanker targeted with hull-mounted explosives in Hormuz". On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the high band, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.
AI-assisted · refreshed daily at 12:00 UTC · more often in crisisAll briefs →
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I.
At sea.
Live vessel mix, dark tankers, the carriers who have suspended Hormuz transits, and a rolling reading of stranded-vessel pressure.
Surface effects
Container carriers.
CarriersThe nine largest container carriers by global TEU capacity, with their declared posture for Strait of Hormuz transit and any dollar figure a carrier notice states, per container or per TEU as the carrier quotes it. The surcharge and stranded-vessel figures are indicative editorial estimates, not contracted rates or confirmed tallies; each row links to the carrier’s own advisory.Posture key: Rerouting means Hormuz calls dropped but cargo still moving, via the Cape or escorted convoys; Suspended means no transits and no reroute announced. A carrier’s own advisory may say “suspended” about its Hormuz calls while we class the line as rerouting because its cargo still sails.Read the Hormuz figure, not the posture counts, for whether the strait is being used. Most of these lines moved Asia–Europe services to the Cape of Good Hope, which is a Red Sea decision and says nothing about Hormuz. 5 of 9 advisories describe stopping Hormuz or Gulf service, 0 describe reduced or escorted service still running, and 4 make no claim about the strait either way. The verdict counts only advisories from the last 60 days: that’s 1 of the 5, not all 5.
Hormuz stopped
5
of 9 · 1 in the verdict · 0 limited · 4 unstated
Rerouting
8
0 suspended
Stranded
n/a
no carrier count from the last 60 days
- 01
MSC
Mediterranean Shipping Company routes Asia–Europe services via the Cape of Good Hope. Its March advisory suspended Middle East bookings and told ships in the area to shelter; it has published no vessel count since.
MSC · Customer advisory, March 2026, and Ship & Bunker, 2 March 2026 →Reroutingsince MAR 1 - 02
Maersk
Maersk has suspended bookings to Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Gulf ports, Jordan and most UAE ports. It discharges at Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, outside the strait, and moves cargo overland to Jebel Ali. Its Update 52 of 26 October 2026 says some cargo booked to Khor Fakkan now goes to Jebel Ali by direct discharge where the feeder can transit the Strait of Hormuz, and it charges USD 1,000 a container on any vessel that transits the strait, on top of an Emergency Freight rate. Update 52 sets that rate at USD 1,800 per 20-foot dry container, USD 3,000 per 40-foot dry container and USD 3,800 per reefer, special or dangerous-goods container, on cargo loading from or bound for Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia (Dammam and Jubail), Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Oman (except Salalah). The surcharge figure shown is the USD 1,000 per-container transit fee, not the Emergency Freight rate. It said on 25 June that three of its vessels remained in the Gulf.
Maersk · Middle East Operational Update 52 →Rerouting$1.0k/containersince MAR 2 - 03
CMA CGM
CMA CGM has activated Cape of Good Hope routing for all Asia–Europe services. Its chief financial officer said on the second-quarter earnings call on 30 July that eight of its vessels were inside the Gulf and unable to exit through the strait.
CMA CGM Q2 earnings call, via WorldCargo News →Reroutingsince MAR 58 stranded as of JUL 30 - 04
COSCO
COSCO Shipping suspended all new Middle East bookings on 4 March, then resumed Far East bookings by landbridge on 25 March. Two of its container ships crossed the strait in late March through the Larak Island corridor; it has not published a Gulf posture or vessel count since.
WorldCargo News, Datamar News (4 March 2026), Container News (27 March 2026) →Limitedsince MAR 4 - 05
Hapag-Lloyd
Hapag-Lloyd has suspended Hormuz transits and reroutes via the Cape. On 4 May 2026 it reopened Upper Gulf bookings via Sharjah feeders. By 1 July it had moved all four of its vessels out of the Gulf.
WorldCargo News, Container News (4 May 2026) →Reroutingsince MAR 30 stranded as of JUL 1 - 06
ONE
Ocean Network Express suspended new bookings to and from the Persian Gulf on 2 March 2026, citing safety for crew, vessels and cargo. No advisory newer than that has been found.
ONE · Temporary Suspension of Bookings to and from the Persian Gulf, 2 March 2026 →Reroutingsince MAR 2 - 07
Evergreen
Evergreen Marine suspended new bookings to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia (except Jeddah) and Iraq's Umm Qasr port on 5 March 2026, citing crew and vessel safety. No advisory newer than that has been found.
Container News, 5 March 2026, citing Evergreen Marine advisory →Reroutingsince MAR 5 - 08
HMM
HMM declared a service deviation for cargo linked to the Arabian Gulf, Red Sea and Horn of Africa on 11 March 2026 and said it would invoke its bill of lading rights over affected shipments. The Container News report cites a deviation recovery cost of USD 1,000 per container. No advisory newer than that has been found.
Container News, 11 March 2026, citing HMM advisory →Rerouting$1.0k/containersince MAR 11 - 09
Yang Ming
Yang Ming's revision of its GS2 service was reported on 26 March 2026. Its advisory of 20 April covers Khor Fakkan and Sohar, with normal routing to resume once conditions allow. No advisory newer than that has been found.
Container News, 20 April 2026, citing Yang Ming advisory, and 26 March 2026 →Reroutingsince MAR 26
AIS pulse.
AIS pulseStranded-vessel count suppressed · AIS feed quiet, no fresh aggregate
Per-port pressure across 4 Gulf and bypass ports (counts, tanker mix, congestion scores) at the ports page →
Per-port pressure across Gulf and bypass ports is at the ports page; sanctioned-vessel cross-referencing at the sanctioned-vessels page; pipeline bypass capacity at the pipelines page; LNG cargo exposure and the country-level demand at risk at the LNG-supply page; the Cape of Good Hope reroute, explained, at the reroute page; and peer-chokepoint comparison at the chokepoints page.
II.
Markets.
Prediction-market odds on duration and probability of a wider regional war, and Iran's open-market currency under pressure.
What the market expects.
Prediction marketsImplied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket: public, dollar-weighted markets where traders price contracts on Hormuz, Iran, and broader Middle East outcomes. Forward-looking where the rest of the page is backward-looking.
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket$15.9M volcloses 31 Dec 2026
11%
market price
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Polymarket$4.3M volcloses 31 Oct 2026
<1%
market price
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Polymarket$1.1M volcloses 30 Nov 2026
7%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? (Before Jul 1, 2027)Kalshi1.6M contractscloses 1 Jul 2027
33%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)Kalshi3.5M contractscloses 5 Jan 2027
8%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027? (Before Apr 1, 2027)Kalshi848K contractscloses 1 Apr 2027
18%
market price
Currency pressure
Tehran open-market rate.
Iranian toman274,125
Toman per USD · Tehran open-market mid
Buy 272,750Sell 275,500
24h +1.32%7d +1.03%
The black-market USD rate Tehran’s trading houses quote when transacting. The government’s official rate is an administratively set, subsidized rate that sits far below what the open market charges and is not a price most Iranians can actually buy dollars at; the figure above is the rate they pay.
Watch this number when headlines break. It’s a stress gauge for Iran’s economy: when people rush into hard currency, the rial price of a dollar climbs.
Downstream trade-diversion impact (the extra voyage time, the fleet-capacity squeeze, and the countries most exposed to a prolonged reroute) at the Cape reroute page. War-risk insurance dynamics, how the JWC listing translates into premium multiples and lay-up clauses, at the war-risk insurance page; and how a Brent spike propagates to retail gasoline, diesel, and container freight at the oil-price impact page.
III.
Events.
The indexed chronology of strikes, maritime incidents, formal closures, and diplomatic activity that defines this crisis.
Recent events.
Chronology- 01
Maritime
Tanker in Strait of Hormuz Hit by Limpet Mines, Security Sources Say
A small boat attached two limpet mines to the hull of a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz causing a fire in its engine room and temporarily disabling the vessel, in the first successful use of such explosives in the waterway since the US war with Iran began in February, maritime so…
- 02
Military
Tankers defy sharp escalation of Iranian attacks to keep crude oil flowing through Strait of Hormuz
Soaring freight rates are giving tankers a big financial incentive to run the gauntlet through the Strait of Hormuz.
- 03
Maritime
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reports three tankers on fire in Strait of Hormuz as talks continue
- 04
Military
Iran Navy Says It Destroyed ‘Enemy’ Unmanned Vessel in Strait of Hormuz
- 05
Maritime
Iran says "enemy" USV struck, "violating" tankers caught fire in Hormuz Strait as Qatari delegation visits Tehran
- 06
Maritime
Strait of Hormuz shipping routes cleared of Iranian sea mines, vessels transiting freely: CENTCOM chief
- 07
Military
Oil prices set for sharp monthly rise on Hormuz strikes and US threat to hit Iran
- 08
Maritime
IRGC Claims Third Tanker Exploded by Sea Mine in Strait of Hormuz
Active negotiation tracks, mediators, and back-channel work at the peace-talks page.
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