Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker & Monitor, updated 12 OCT 2026 · 0537Z
Closed.
to commercial shipping · by war-risk insurance
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries close to a fifth of the world’s oil. This page tracks, live, whether ships are getting through. New here? Start here →
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is under fresh attack, disrupting transit, and the latest official PortWatch count is 4 vessels on October 4 at 5% of typical as the Petroline (East-West Pipeline) bypass runs at reduced capacity; crisis pressure at 88 (extreme) and the Escalation Forecast at 61 (high).
Auto-composed from the live figures · not hand-written
DisruptedStrait under attack
The stakes
Pump figure modeled from live Brent · odds market-implied · not forecasts
vs pre-crisis ~$72 +43.8%
Front-month futures · ~15 min delay
Hormuz Indexv0.7.10
How this is computed →Our two 0–100 gauges: how disrupted the strait is right now, and how much escalation markets price in. Read the second as a direction of travel, not a forecast for any fixed day.
On OCT 4, IMF PortWatch's most recent published day, commercial transit through the Strait reached 5% of the pre-crisis vessel count: 4 vessels against a typical 85 per day. Iran says the Strait remains closed; reports say ships are still transiting. PortWatch's weekly count runs days behind, so it can't yet confirm or rule that out. War-risk insurance for tankers prices at 30.0× pre-crisis on the latest trade-press read, with 6 P&I clubs having cancelled war-risk cover in March 2026. Brent has moved -1.10% since the prior settle.
Commercial transits
OCT 4 · vs typical 85/day
4
contested · see note
Throughput
% of pre-crisis typical
5%
contested · see note
War-risk insurance
VLCC up to $10.0M (27 Jul)
The cost to insure one supertanker for the passage, vs peacetime.
30.0×est.
+2900% vs pre-crisis
PortWatch counts AIS-broadcasting crossings only. Tankers crossing with transponders off are not counted, and trade press reports such crossings, so true flow runs higher than the figure above.
- 01
Two Indian seafarers are missing after a drone struck MT Petro Dolphin in the Strait of Hormuz, per Maritime Gateway.
- 02
Iranian state media claim a supertanker struck a mine and exploded in the strait; no major wire in this feed carries the claim independently.
- 03
Brent stood at $102.83 as of 03:08 UTC, down 1.80% over 24 hours; IMF PortWatch recorded 4 transits on October 4, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day.
Situation
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, with vessel throughput at a fraction of its pre-crisis level. IMF PortWatch recorded 4 transits on October 4, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. The lead development in this window is the fate of two Indian seafarers reported missing after a drone struck the MT Petro Dolphin; Hindustan Times, The Indian Express, and Gulf News all carry the report. India has condemned strikes on commercial ships in the strait, per gCaptain. Separately, Iranian state media claim a supertanker struck a mine and exploded in the southern strait; no major wire in this feed carries that claim independently, and US Central Command has previously disputed Iranian mine claims in the same lanes. The New York Post reports that the US struck a vessel breaking the blockade, reported on October 11, with The New York Post's own headline framing the sequence as Iran setting a supertanker ablaze after the US action; the attacker in that framing is the US, though no maritime authority has independently named a party. blue News reports another tanker was hit in the strait. On the diplomatic track, per Iranian state media, Iran has called the US reply to its seven conditions for reopening the strait insufficient; that claim originates with Iranian state media and has not moved since the October 8 assessment already in the record. Brent stood at $102.83 as of 03:08 UTC, down 1.80% over 24 hours. The feed indexed 58 headlines in the last 24 hours. As of 03:20 UTC, 178 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the high band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.
AI-assisted · refreshed daily at 12:00 UTC · more often in crisisAll briefs →
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I.
At sea.
Live vessel mix, dark tankers, the carriers who have suspended Hormuz transits, and a rolling reading of stranded-vessel pressure.
Transits by type.
Vessel mixCurrently transiting vessels grouped by type. The headline transit count above conflates traffic that energy desks read differently: a Capesize bulker and a VLCC are not the same signal. 149 vessels in the window were seen to move between two position reports, broken down here. A first sighting, or a fix over an hour old, counts as neither moving nor holding, so this isn't a ceiling.
Tankers
Crude, products, LNG and chemical carriers.
9
4 Oct 14h12 Oct 05hCargo
Container, bulk, vehicle and general cargo.
41
4 Oct 14h12 Oct 05hOther
Passenger, fishing, tugs and unclassified traffic.
98
4 Oct 14h12 Oct 05hMilitary
Naval, coast-guard and law-enforcement vessels. A floor, not a census: warships routinely transit with AIS switched off.
1
4 Oct 14h12 Oct 05h
Tankers gone dark.
Dark-tanker count51
tankers · last 24hof 175 screened▼ vs 7d baseline 87.5
Tankers that were broadcasting actively on inside the strait core area and have stopped transmitting for between 3 and 24 hours. The screen is tankers only, with 50 or more sightings, last positioned inside the core area: a narrower population than the 8,659 vessels of every type ever recorded in the wider bbox since monitoring began.
That is 51 of 175 tankers that met the screen. Non-tankers that met the same screen went dark at 25.9% on the identical test. That is close to the tanker rate, so the share attributable to deliberate evasion is not currently distinguishable from ambient dropout. Read the count as a floor on hulls we stopped receiving, not a verified evasion tally.
Baseline averages the count over the last 168 hourly samples.
Dark-fleet identities (API) → Match methodology →
AIS-derived · 23m agoSurface effects
Container carriers.
CarriersThe nine largest container carriers by global TEU capacity, with their declared posture for Strait of Hormuz transit and the surcharge applied to twenty-foot equivalent units rerouted via the Cape. The surcharge and stranded-vessel figures are indicative editorial estimates, not contracted rates or confirmed tallies; each row links to the carrier’s own advisory.Posture key: Rerouting means Hormuz calls dropped but cargo still moving, via the Cape or escorted convoys; Suspended means no transits and no reroute announced. A carrier’s own advisory may say “suspended” about its Hormuz calls while we class the line as rerouting because its cargo still sails.Read the Hormuz figure, not the posture counts, for whether the strait is being used. Most of these lines moved Asia–Europe services to the Cape of Good Hope, which is a Red Sea decision and says nothing about Hormuz. 4 of 9 advisories describe stopping Hormuz or Gulf service, 0 describe reduced or escorted service still running, and 5 make no claim about the strait either way. The verdict counts only advisories from the last 60 days: that’s 1 of the 4, not all 4.
Hormuz stopped
4
of 9 · 1 in the verdict · 0 limited · 5 unstated
Rerouting
8
0 suspended
Stranded
n/a
no carrier count from the last 60 days
- 01
MSC
Mediterranean Shipping Company routes Asia–Europe services via the Cape of Good Hope. Its March advisory suspended Middle East bookings and told ships in the area to shelter; it has published no vessel count since.
MSC · Customer advisory, March 2026 →Rerouting$1.2k/TEUsince MAR 4 - 02
Maersk
Maersk has suspended bookings to Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Gulf ports, Jordan and most UAE ports. It discharges at Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, outside the strait, and moves cargo overland to Jebel Ali, and it charges USD 1,000 a container on any vessel that transits the Strait of Hormuz, on top of an Emergency Freight rate. Its Update 46 of 11 September 2026 sets that rate at USD 1,800 per 20-foot dry container, USD 3,000 per 40-foot dry container and USD 3,800 per reefer, special or dangerous-goods container, on cargo loading from or bound for Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia (Dammam and Jubail), Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Oman (except Salalah). The surcharge figure shown is the USD 1,000 per-container transit fee, not the Emergency Freight rate. It said on 25 June that three of its vessels remained in the Gulf.
Maersk · Middle East Operational Update 46 →Rerouting$1.0k/TEUsince MAR 2 - 03
CMA CGM
CMA CGM has activated Cape of Good Hope routing for all Asia–Europe services. Its chief financial officer said on the second-quarter earnings call on 30 July that eight of its vessels were inside the Gulf and unable to exit through the strait.
CMA CGM Q2 earnings call, via WorldCargo News →Rerouting$950/TEUsince MAR 58 stranded as of JUL 30 - 04
COSCO
COSCO Shipping has suspended bookings to Bandar Abbas and routes Europe-bound services via the Cape. Two of its container ships crossed the strait in late March with Iranian clearance; it has not published a Gulf posture or vessel count since.
WorldCargo News →Limited$600/TEUsince MAR 15 - 05
Hapag-Lloyd
Hapag-Lloyd has suspended Hormuz transits and reroutes via the Cape. By 1 July it had moved all four of its vessels out of the Gulf.
WorldCargo News →Rerouting$1.1k/TEUsince MAR 30 stranded as of JUL 1 - 06
ONE
Ocean Network Express suspended new bookings to and from the Persian Gulf on 2 March 2026, citing safety for crew, vessels and cargo. No advisory newer than that has been found.
ONE · Temporary Suspension of Bookings to and from the Persian Gulf, 2 March 2026 →Rerouting$900/TEUsince MAR 2 - 07
Evergreen
Evergreen Marine suspended new bookings to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia (except Jeddah) and Iraq's Umm Qasr port on 5 March 2026, citing crew and vessel safety. No advisory newer than that has been found.
Container News, 5 March 2026, citing Evergreen Marine advisory →Rerouting$850/TEUsince MAR 5 - 08
HMM
HMM declared a service deviation for cargo linked to the Arabian Gulf, Red Sea and Horn of Africa on 13 March 2026 and said it would invoke its bill of lading rights over affected shipments. No advisory newer than that has been found.
Container News, 13 March 2026, citing HMM advisory →Rerouting$800/TEUsince MAR 13 - 09
Yang Ming
Yang Ming revised its GS2 service on 26 March 2026 and said on 20 April that ships bound for Middle East ports beyond Sohar, Oman would discharge at Khor Fakkan instead, with normal routing to resume once conditions allow. No advisory newer than that has been found.
Container News, 20 April 2026, citing Yang Ming advisory →Rerouting$750/TEUsince MAR 26
AIS pulse.
AIS pulseStranded vessels · 35h
126
holding position away from berth35h range 70–180▼ 22 vs 35h ago
Per-port pressure across 4 Gulf and bypass ports (counts, tanker mix, congestion scores) at the ports page → AIS coverage is lost at Bandar Abbas right now, so no count is published there.
Per-port pressure across Gulf and bypass ports is at the ports page; sanctioned-vessel cross-referencing at the sanctioned-vessels page; pipeline bypass capacity at the pipelines page; LNG cargo exposure and the country-level demand at risk at the LNG-supply page; the Cape of Good Hope reroute, explained, at the reroute page; and peer-chokepoint comparison at the chokepoints page.
II.
Markets.
Prediction-market odds on duration and probability of a wider regional war, and Iran's open-market currency under pressure.
What the market expects.
Prediction marketsImplied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket: public, dollar-weighted markets where traders price contracts on Hormuz, Iran, and broader Middle East outcomes. Forward-looking where the rest of the page is backward-looking.
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket$14.6M volcloses 31 Dec 2026
14%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)Kalshi3.2M contractscloses 1 Jan 2027
12%
market price
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Polymarket$2.2M volcloses 31 Oct 2026
1%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? (Before Nov 1, 2026)Kalshi2.2M contractscloses 1 Nov 2026
2%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? (Before Jul 1, 2027)Kalshi1.6M contractscloses 1 Jul 2027
43%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? (Before Dec 1, 2026)Kalshi1.3M contractscloses 1 Dec 2026
5%
market price
Currency pressure
Tehran open-market rate.
Iranian toman264,375
Toman per USD · Tehran open-market mid
Buy 263,050Sell 265,700
24h -0.15%7d -1.54%
The black-market USD rate Tehran’s trading houses quote when transacting. The government’s official rate is an administratively set, subsidized rate that sits far below what the open market charges and is not a price most Iranians can actually buy dollars at; the figure above is the rate they pay.
Watch this number when headlines break. The rial tends to move ahead of Brent on Iran escalation: capital flight into hard currency is faster than the oil futures re-pricing the same risk.
Downstream trade-diversion impact (the extra voyage time, the fleet-capacity squeeze, and the countries most exposed to a prolonged reroute) at the Cape reroute page. War-risk insurance dynamics, how the JWC listing translates into premium multiples and lay-up clauses, at the war-risk insurance page; and how a Brent spike propagates to retail gasoline, diesel, and container freight at the oil-price impact page.
III.
Events.
The indexed chronology of strikes, maritime incidents, formal closures, and diplomatic activity that defines this crisis.
Recent events.
Chronology- 01
Maritime
IRGC warns vessels violating in Strait of Hormuz
Tehran, IRNA – The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy warns vessels that violate regulations and attempt to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
- 02
Maritime
Iran Warns Ships Using Strait of Hormuz With Tracking Systems Off
- 03
Diplomatic
Iran: US response to conditions for reopening Strait of Hormuz is insufficient
- 04
Closure
Iran insists Strait of Hormuz remains closed until US meets seven peace conditions
- 05
Military
More Tankers Hit in Hormuz as U.S. Strikes Cargo Ship
Two more tankers have been struck in the Strait of Hormuz as U.S. forces disable a cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, extending a sharp escalation in attacks on commercial shipping.
- 06
Military
India condemns Strait of Hormuz attacks; 2 Indian sailors missing
- 07
Maritime
IRGC Navy warns ships against turning off navigation systems
TEHRAN, Oct. 12 (MNA) – Iran’s IRGC Navy chief Ali Azmaei has warned that ships in the Strait of Hormuz that switch off their navigation and identification systems will be classified as hostile and face decisive action.
- 08
Military
Two Indian seafarers missing after vessel hit by drone in Strait of Hormuz
Active negotiation tracks, mediators, and back-channel work at the peace-talks page.
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