{"schema":"hormuz-index-v0.2","asOf":"2026-09-07T12:29:04.723Z","updateFrequency":"PT5M","methodologyVersion":"0.6.0","methodologyUrl":"https://straits.live/methodology#hormuz-index","disclaimer":"Informational only. Not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Not a benchmark for any financial instrument.","indices":{"crisisPressure":{"value":90,"confidence":6,"confidenceNote":"Dispersion band, not a certainty score: the weighted standard deviation of the component scores, scaled by 0.4 and clamped 2-15. Higher means the inputs disagree with each other more, not that the reading is more certain; lower means they agree. Method: https://straits.live/methodology#confidence","band":"extreme","delta24h":-1,"delta7d":-1,"indexHealth":"fresh","inputsAsOf":"2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z","components":{"aisTransitDeviation":{"raw":7.0588235294117645,"score":95.76470588235294,"weight":0.3,"contribution":28.729411764705883,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-08-30T00:00:00Z"},"insuranceMultiple":{"raw":40,"score":100,"weight":0.25,"contribution":25,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z"},"gdeltEventPressure":{"raw":71.70490353834997,"score":100,"weight":0.25,"contribution":25,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-09-07T11:26:41.000Z"},"brentOptionsDread":{"raw":44.96,"score":58.266666666666666,"weight":0.2,"contribution":11.653333333333334,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-09-07T12:24:08.992Z"}},"reconciliation":{"rawComposite":90.38,"overrideApplied":false,"preDecayValue":90.38,"decayed":90.41,"smoothedValue":90.41,"anchor24h":91,"hoursSincePrevious":0.08,"note":"Components sum to rawComposite (Σ score × weight). No override applied this tick, so preDecayValue equals rawComposite. The published value applies anti-whipsaw smoothing: asymmetric decay (36h halflife) then per-24h rails (max +25 / -10). smoothedValue rounds to value (90). Method: https://straits.live/methodology#index-smoothing"}},"escalationProbability":{"value":53,"confidence":9,"confidenceNote":"Dispersion band, not a certainty score: the weighted standard deviation of the component scores, scaled by 0.4 and clamped 2-15. Higher means the inputs disagree with each other more, not that the reading is more certain; lower means they agree. Method: https://straits.live/methodology#confidence","band":"elevated","delta24h":1,"delta7d":3,"indexHealth":"fresh","inputsAsOf":"2026-09-07T12:17:14.746Z","components":{"polymarketAggregate":{"raw":0.3078868236623631,"score":30.78868236623631,"weight":0.5333333333333332,"contribution":16.420630595326028,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-09-07T12:17:14.746Z","totalVolumeUsd":84146781.1776563},"brentTermStructureSlope":{"raw":7.71,"score":74.73333333333333,"weight":0.2666666666666666,"contribution":19.928888888888885,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-09-07T12:28:03.876Z","totalVolumeUsd":0},"manifoldForwardContracts":{"raw":0.24034764122872823,"score":24.034764122872822,"weight":0,"contribution":0,"health":"stale","asOf":"2026-09-07T12:17:14.746Z","totalVolumeUsd":2289.3689317441977},"kalshiForwardContracts":{"raw":0.8100424291034889,"score":81.00424291034889,"weight":0.19999999999999996,"contribution":16.200848582069774,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-09-07T12:17:14.746Z","totalVolumeUsd":9216354.23447801}},"degraded":{"components":[{"key":"manifoldForwardContracts","nominalWeight":0.25,"health":"stale"}],"note":"manifoldForwardContracts (nominal 25%, stale) stood down this tick, either unavailable or below its liquidity floor. Nominal weight redistributed across the remaining fresh components: the published component weights are renormalized, not the methodology defaults."},"reconciliation":{"rawComposite":52.55,"overrideApplied":false,"preDecayValue":52.55,"decayed":52.55,"smoothedValue":52.55,"anchor24h":52,"hoursSincePrevious":0.08,"note":"Components sum to rawComposite (Σ score × weight). No override applied this tick, so preDecayValue equals rawComposite. The published value applies anti-whipsaw smoothing: asymmetric decay (36h halflife) then per-24h rails (max +25 / -10). smoothedValue rounds to value (53). Method: https://straits.live/methodology#index-smoothing"},"nearExpiryContracts":{"taperStartDays":14,"contracts":[{"venue":"polymarket","id":"polymarket_3501952","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?","resolvesAt":"2026-09-15T00:00:00Z","hoursLeft":179,"weightRemaining":0.5341,"volumeUsd":1607520.015527},{"venue":"kalshi","id":"kalshi_KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP06-T20","question":"Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 20)","resolvesAt":"2026-09-08T13:00:00Z","hoursLeft":24,"weightRemaining":0.0728,"volumeUsd":12529.22},{"venue":"kalshi","id":"kalshi_KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP06-T30","question":"Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 30)","resolvesAt":"2026-09-08T13:00:00Z","hoursLeft":24,"weightRemaining":0.0728,"volumeUsd":7583.41},{"venue":"kalshi","id":"kalshi_KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP06-T25","question":"Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 25)","resolvesAt":"2026-09-08T13:00:00Z","hoursLeft":24,"weightRemaining":0.0728,"volumeUsd":7493.22},{"venue":"kalshi","id":"kalshi_KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP06-T35","question":"Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 35)","resolvesAt":"2026-09-08T13:00:00Z","hoursLeft":24,"weightRemaining":0.0728,"volumeUsd":6714.67}],"note":"5 contracts feeding this forecast close within 14 days: polymarket \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?\" closes in 179h, $1.61M lifetime volume, carrying 53% of its volume as weight when its venue is active; kalshi \"Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 20)\" closes in 24h, $0.01M lifetime volume, carrying 7% of its volume as weight when its venue is active; kalshi \"Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 30)\" closes in 24h, $0.01M lifetime volume, carrying 7% of its volume as weight when its venue is active; kalshi \"Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 25)\" closes in 24h, $0.01M lifetime volume, carrying 7% of its volume as weight when its venue is active; kalshi \"Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 35)\" closes in 24h, $0.01M lifetime volume, carrying 7% of its volume as weight when its venue is active. Listed here only if it actually matches its venue's Escalation Forecast pattern set (see /methodology); a contract closing soon on a tracked venue that does not feed a component (e.g. it hits no escalation pattern, or Polymarket's dated-agreement exclusion) is left off. Since methodology v0.6.0 a matched contract's weight tapers linearly to zero over its final 14 days, because a dated contract prices the calendar rather than the strait as its deadline arrives, and de-escalation-framed contracts get orientation-inverted so that reads as near-certain escalation. The taper also means these contracts leave the pool carrying almost no weight, so their departure is not a step in the published value. Full contract list: https://straits.live/api/v1/markets"}}}}