{"schema":"hormuz-index-v0.2","asOf":"2026-07-21T10:21:10.379Z","updateFrequency":"PT5M","methodologyVersion":"0.5.0","methodologyUrl":"https://straits.live/methodology#hormuz-index","disclaimer":"Informational only. Not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Not a benchmark for any financial instrument.","indices":{"crisisPressure":{"value":91,"confidence":2,"band":"extreme","delta24h":0,"delta7d":1,"indexHealth":"fresh","components":{"aisTransitDeviation":{"raw":11.363636363636363,"score":93.18181818181819,"weight":0.3,"contribution":27.954545454545457,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-07-12T00:00:00Z"},"insuranceMultiple":{"raw":8,"score":90,"weight":0.25,"contribution":22.5,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-07-19T12:00:13.913Z"},"gdeltEventPressure":{"raw":25.921787328553144,"score":96.48044683213828,"weight":0.25,"contribution":24.12011170803457,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-07-21T08:29:01.000Z"},"brentOptionsDread":{"raw":62.07,"score":82.07,"weight":0.2,"contribution":16.413999999999998,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-07-21T10:18:02.903Z"}},"reconciliation":{"rawComposite":90.99,"decayed":91.22,"smoothedValue":91.22,"anchor24h":91,"hoursSincePrevious":0.08,"note":"Components sum to rawComposite (Σ score × weight). The published value applies anti-whipsaw smoothing — asymmetric decay (36h halflife) then per-24h rails (max +25 / -10). smoothedValue rounds to value (91). Method: https://straits.live/methodology#index-smoothing"}},"escalationProbability":{"value":59,"confidence":8,"band":"elevated","delta24h":0,"delta7d":-6,"indexHealth":"fresh","components":{"polymarketAggregate":{"raw":0.4022430973468022,"score":40.22430973468022,"weight":0.5333333333333332,"contribution":21.452965191829446,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-07-21T10:18:09.199Z","totalVolumeUsd":97196860.74063632},"brentTermStructureSlope":{"raw":6.68,"score":66.26666666666667,"weight":0.2666666666666666,"contribution":17.671111111111106,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-07-21T09:52:06.253Z","totalVolumeUsd":0},"manifoldForwardContracts":{"raw":0.35444193306006855,"score":35.44419330600685,"weight":0,"contribution":0,"health":"stale","asOf":"2026-07-21T10:18:09.199Z","totalVolumeUsd":2231.827669319082},"kalshiForwardContracts":{"raw":0.9083168938862707,"score":90.83168938862707,"weight":0.19999999999999996,"contribution":18.16633787772541,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-07-21T10:18:09.199Z","totalVolumeUsd":11211388.84}},"degraded":{"components":[{"key":"manifoldForwardContracts","nominalWeight":0.25,"health":"stale"}],"note":"manifoldForwardContracts (nominal 25%, stale) unavailable this tick. Nominal weight redistributed across the remaining fresh components — the published component weights are renormalized, not the methodology defaults."},"reconciliation":{"rawComposite":57.29,"decayed":58.68,"smoothedValue":58.68,"anchor24h":59,"hoursSincePrevious":0.08,"note":"Components sum to rawComposite (Σ score × weight). The published value applies anti-whipsaw smoothing — asymmetric decay (36h halflife) then per-24h rails (max +25 / -10). smoothedValue rounds to value (59). Method: https://straits.live/methodology#index-smoothing"}}}}