{"schema":"hormuz-index-v0.2","asOf":"2026-09-04T16:04:11.781Z","updateFrequency":"PT5M","methodologyVersion":"0.6.0","methodologyUrl":"https://straits.live/methodology#hormuz-index","disclaimer":"Informational only. Not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Not a benchmark for any financial instrument.","indices":{"crisisPressure":{"value":91,"confidence":6,"confidenceNote":"Dispersion band, not a certainty score: the weighted standard deviation of the component scores, scaled by 0.4 and clamped 2-15. Higher means the inputs disagree with each other more, not that the reading is more certain; lower means they agree. Method: https://straits.live/methodology#confidence","band":"extreme","delta24h":0,"delta7d":0,"indexHealth":"fresh","inputsAsOf":"2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z","components":{"aisTransitDeviation":{"raw":7.0588235294117645,"score":95.76470588235294,"weight":0.3,"contribution":28.729411764705883,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-08-30T00:00:00Z"},"insuranceMultiple":{"raw":40,"score":100,"weight":0.25,"contribution":25,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z"},"gdeltEventPressure":{"raw":67.06147491022985,"score":100,"weight":0.25,"contribution":25,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-09-04T13:48:11.000Z"},"brentOptionsDread":{"raw":45.76,"score":59.599999999999994,"weight":0.2,"contribution":11.92,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-09-04T15:54:06.784Z"}},"reconciliation":{"rawComposite":90.65,"overrideApplied":false,"preDecayValue":90.65,"decayed":91.11,"smoothedValue":91.11,"anchor24h":91,"hoursSincePrevious":0.09,"note":"Components sum to rawComposite (Σ score × weight). No override applied this tick, so preDecayValue equals rawComposite. The published value applies anti-whipsaw smoothing: asymmetric decay (36h halflife) then per-24h rails (max +25 / -10). smoothedValue rounds to value (91). Method: https://straits.live/methodology#index-smoothing"}},"escalationProbability":{"value":52,"confidence":9,"confidenceNote":"Dispersion band, not a certainty score: the weighted standard deviation of the component scores, scaled by 0.4 and clamped 2-15. Higher means the inputs disagree with each other more, not that the reading is more certain; lower means they agree. Method: https://straits.live/methodology#confidence","band":"elevated","delta24h":-1,"delta7d":2,"indexHealth":"fresh","inputsAsOf":"2026-09-04T15:58:04.952Z","components":{"polymarketAggregate":{"raw":0.2981536527524855,"score":29.815365275248553,"weight":0.5333333333333332,"contribution":15.901528146799224,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-09-04T16:02:19.761Z","totalVolumeUsd":83930207.64534366},"brentTermStructureSlope":{"raw":7.5,"score":73.33333333333333,"weight":0.2666666666666666,"contribution":19.55555555555555,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-09-04T15:58:04.952Z","totalVolumeUsd":0},"manifoldForwardContracts":{"raw":0.22547566448511566,"score":22.547566448511567,"weight":0,"contribution":0,"health":"stale","asOf":"2026-09-04T16:02:19.761Z","totalVolumeUsd":2277.6365555168504},"kalshiForwardContracts":{"raw":0.7906625399223166,"score":79.06625399223167,"weight":0.19999999999999996,"contribution":15.81325079844633,"health":"fresh","asOf":"2026-09-04T16:02:19.761Z","totalVolumeUsd":9017245.742269598}},"degraded":{"components":[{"key":"manifoldForwardContracts","nominalWeight":0.25,"health":"stale"}],"note":"manifoldForwardContracts (nominal 25%, stale) stood down this tick, either unavailable or below its liquidity floor. Nominal weight redistributed across the remaining fresh components: the published component weights are renormalized, not the methodology defaults."},"reconciliation":{"rawComposite":51.27,"overrideApplied":false,"preDecayValue":51.27,"decayed":52.26,"smoothedValue":52.26,"anchor24h":53,"hoursSincePrevious":0.09,"note":"Components sum to rawComposite (Σ score × weight). No override applied this tick, so preDecayValue equals rawComposite. The published value applies anti-whipsaw smoothing: asymmetric decay (36h halflife) then per-24h rails (max +25 / -10). smoothedValue rounds to value (52). Method: https://straits.live/methodology#index-smoothing"},"nearExpiryContracts":{"taperStartDays":14,"contracts":[{"venue":"polymarket","id":"polymarket_3501952","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?","resolvesAt":"2026-09-15T00:00:00Z","hoursLeft":248,"weightRemaining":0.7379,"volumeUsd":1422150.5917419996},{"venue":"kalshi","id":"kalshi_KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP06-T30","question":"Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 30)","resolvesAt":"2026-09-08T13:00:00Z","hoursLeft":93,"weightRemaining":0.2765,"volumeUsd":5467.11},{"venue":"kalshi","id":"kalshi_KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP06-T35","question":"Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 35)","resolvesAt":"2026-09-08T13:00:00Z","hoursLeft":93,"weightRemaining":0.2765,"volumeUsd":4539.36},{"venue":"kalshi","id":"kalshi_KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP06-T40","question":"Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 40)","resolvesAt":"2026-09-08T13:00:00Z","hoursLeft":93,"weightRemaining":0.2765,"volumeUsd":3788.03}],"note":"4 contracts feeding this forecast close within 14 days: polymarket \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?\" closes in 248h, $1.42M lifetime volume, carrying 74% of its volume as weight when its venue is active; kalshi \"Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 30)\" closes in 93h, $0.01M lifetime volume, carrying 28% of its volume as weight when its venue is active; kalshi \"Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 35)\" closes in 93h, $0.00M lifetime volume, carrying 28% of its volume as weight when its venue is active; kalshi \"Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026? (Above 40)\" closes in 93h, $0.00M lifetime volume, carrying 28% of its volume as weight when its venue is active. Listed here only if it actually matches its venue's Escalation Forecast pattern set (see /methodology); a contract closing soon on a tracked venue that does not feed a component (e.g. it hits no escalation pattern, or Polymarket's dated-agreement exclusion) is left off. Since methodology v0.6.0 a matched contract's weight tapers linearly to zero over its final 14 days, because a dated contract prices the calendar rather than the strait as its deadline arrives, and de-escalation-framed contracts get orientation-inverted so that reads as near-certain escalation. The taper also means these contracts leave the pool carrying almost no weight, so their departure is not a step in the published value. Full contract list: https://straits.live/api/v1/markets"}}}}