{"verdict":{"status":"closed","short":"Effectively no","long":"War-risk insurance has priced commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz beyond the reach of most operators.","basis":"insurance"},"narrative":{"arcUpdated":"2026-09-29","arcUpdatedAt":"2026-09-29T19:33:46Z","summary":"The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since February 28, 2026. Iran re-declared it closed after the July ceasefire collapsed, and the war has spread to a second chokepoint, where Yemen's Houthis now hold the Yemeni side of the Bab el-Mandeb. US forces have destroyed Iranian tankers and Iran has fired missiles at US warships and bases, while merchant ships are still being hit: Iran says it struck and detained a Togo-flagged tanker on September 17 for crossing without its permission, and on the evening of September 28 a projectile hit the Kuwaiti supertanker Al Funtas in the strait, starting a fire its crew put out. Drones launched from Iraq shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the largest route around the strait, on September 11; Reuters and Bloomberg report a low-rate restart on September 22 that Saudi Aramco has not confirmed. How much is moving is now contested: US Central Command says it has escorted more than a billion barrels out in two months and that volumes are at a six-month high, and a US official said about 60 ships crossed on September 24, while independent trackers and our own count still show traffic far below pre-war levels, with Reuters counting nine commodity vessels that day. On September 23 a seafarer was killed when projectiles hit the bulk carrier Cape Dao off Oman. After indirect talks through mediators at the UN General Assembly, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi set out a seven-day plan on September 25: the United States would release frozen assets, lift oil sanctions and end its blockade, fighting would stop, and Iran would reopen the strait on the seventh day. President Trump rejected it in public on September 26, and Iran says it won't soften its terms. Since then the Revolutionary Guard has claimed to seize a US underwater drone, which the US denies, and says it fired warning shots at 19 ships on routes it hasn't approved. NBC News, citing unnamed US officials, reported that eight US Marines were hurt, none seriously, when an Iranian missile hit their ship in the strait on September 14, an attack not disclosed at the time. Iran now threatens to restrict every ship of any charterer that pushes vessels through without its approval, and says Qatar is taking Washington new ideas on meeting its conditions, with Tehran hoping for a US answer on September 29; none had been reported by that evening."},"status":"closed","asOf":"2026-09-30T02:00:11.651Z","hormuzIndex":{"methodologyVersion":"0.7.6","methodologyUrl":"https://straits.live/methodology#hormuz-index","asOf":"2026-09-30T01:59:03.971Z","crisisPressure":{"inputsAsOf":"2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z","value":88,"band":"extreme","confidence":8,"confidenceNote":"Dispersion band, not a certainty score: the weighted standard deviation of the component scores, scaled by 0.4 and clamped 2-15. Higher means the inputs disagree with each other more, not that the reading is more certain; lower means they agree. Method: https://straits.live/methodology#confidence","delta24h":null,"indexHealth":"fresh"},"escalationProbability":{"inputsAsOf":"2026-09-30T01:41:32.000Z","value":54,"band":"elevated","confidence":11,"confidenceNote":"Dispersion band, not a certainty score: the weighted standard deviation of the component scores, scaled by 0.4 and clamped 2-15. Higher means the inputs disagree with each other more, not that the reading is more certain; lower means they agree. Method: https://straits.live/methodology#confidence","delta24h":null,"indexHealth":"fresh"}},"transits":{"count":1,"baseline":85,"throughputPct":1,"basis":"portwatch","baselineSource":"portwatch-precrisis","cadence":"daily","asOfDate":"2026-09-27","asOfAgeDays":3,"stale":false,"provisional":true,"freshestDayNote":"The newest PortWatch row is always a Sunday, because IMF publishes weekly on Tuesday against data carrying a ~2-day lag. Sunday is the lowest-traffic weekday in this series, so the freshest print reads low against the day before it even in a normal week. Compare it with earlier Sundays, or with baselineMedian, rather than with previousNTotal.","cadenceNote":"Completed daily transits (IMF PortWatch crossing count). Not the same as aisConcurrentInZone, which is a snapshot of vessels moving inside the wider Persian Gulf watch box right now, not the Strait channel itself."},"dailyTransits":{"date":"2026-09-27","nTotal":1,"nTanker":1,"nCargo":0,"nContainer":0,"nDryBulk":0,"nGeneralCargo":0,"nRoro":0,"capacity":8866,"capacityTanker":8866,"capacityCargo":0,"baselineMedian":3,"preCrisisBaselineMedian":85,"previousNTotal":4,"previousDate":"2026-09-26","ma7":3.14,"updatedAt":"2026-09-29T21:00:47.435Z"},"aisConcurrentInZone":206,"aisFirstFixInZone":2,"aisFirstFixNote":"aisConcurrentInZone counts only vessels whose movement was measured against an earlier position. aisFirstFixInZone counts vessels seen in the same window for the first time, which have nothing to compare against yet; they are in neither aisConcurrentInZone nor stranded.","aisStaleFixInZone":624,"aisStaleFixNote":"aisStaleFixInZone counts vessels still listed in the window whose last AIS fix is at least 60 minutes old and has not changed since the previous scrape. Their position is where they were, not where they are, so they are in none of aisConcurrentInZone, stranded or strandedOffshore. Of the stale vessels that reported again over three runs on 2026-09-26, 79 had not moved, 36 had moved and 15 had dropped off the feed, so the count left out is part held and part gone. Treat stranded and strandedOffshore as counts of vessels seen holding position within the last hour.","shipsTransiting":206,"stranded":892,"strandedOffshore":239,"throughputPercent":1,"transitsBaseline":null,"aisBasis":"tiled12-active30m-fix60","aisBasisChangedAt":"2026-09-26","aisBaselineNote":"transitsBaseline is withheld (null) until 72 hourly samples exist on the current tiled12-active30m-fix60 basis. The basis last reset on 2026-09-26, when vessels whose last AIS fix is an hour or more old stopped counting as holding position or moving; before that it reset on 2026-07-30 (tiling, counts up roughly 3.4x) and 2026-07-20 (30-minute window). After each reset the median is withheld for about 3 days while samples on the new basis build up. Samples on an earlier basis are not mixed in. It is an AIS concurrent-presence median, a different population from transits.baseline (IMF PortWatch daily crossings); do not divide one by the other.","strandedNote":"`stranded` counts vessels seen holding position within the last hour, including ones at berth working cargo at regional ports such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi; a vessel with a stale AIS fix is left out and counted in aisStaleFixInZone instead, not folded into stranded. `strandedOffshore` excludes vessels within 25km of a working port and is the narrower figure the site's own narrative uses.","brent":103.45,"wti":89.52,"change24h":-1.74,"change24hUsd":-1.83,"oilAsOf":"2026-09-30T01:53:34.188Z","marketClosed":false,"insurance":{"multiple":40,"vlccPremiumLow":250000,"vlccPremiumHigh":10000000,"withdrawnClubs":["Gard","Skuld","North Standard","London P&I Club","American Club","Steamship Mutual"],"sourceUrl":"https://straits.live/methodology#markets","sourceName":"straits.live estimate · Lloyd's List via gCaptain, Breakwave Advisors, carrier advisories","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z"},"insuranceMultiple":40,"aisGaps":null,"vesselRisk":{"high":88,"moderate":145,"low":1749,"total":1982,"updatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:53:09.550Z"},"jwc":{"circularUrl":"https://lmalloyds.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/JWLA-034-Saudi-Arabia.pdf","circularLabel":"JWLA-034","circularDate":"2026-07-29","contentHash":"62c258d97f1ca195","regionScore":29,"arabianGulfMentioned":true,"lastChangedAt":"2026-08-01T13:16:36.907Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-17T13:17:15.625Z","checkedAt":"2026-09-30T01:06:09.978Z"},"tradeImpact":{"worldOilAtRiskPct":25,"worldLngAtRiskPct":20,"dailyEconomicCostUsd":4000000000,"topAffectedCountries":["South Korea","Japan","India","China","EU"],"alternativeRouteExtraDays":14,"sourceUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/","sourceName":"straits.live estimate · EIA/IEA reference data","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z"},"carrierSuspensions":[{"id":"msc","carrier":"MSC","rank":1,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":1200,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-04T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Mediterranean Shipping Company routes Asia–Europe services via the Cape of Good Hope. Its March advisory suspended Middle East bookings and told ships in the area to shelter; it has published no vessel count since.","hormuzPosture":"unstated","sourceUrl":"https://www.msc.com/en/newsroom/customer-advisories/2026/march/middle-east-security-measure-for-transits-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-bab-el-mandeb","sourceName":"MSC · Customer advisory, March 2026","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z","advisoryDate":"2026-03-04T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"maersk","carrier":"Maersk","rank":2,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":1000,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-02T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Maersk has suspended bookings to Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Gulf ports, Jordan and most UAE ports. It discharges at Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, outside the strait, and moves cargo overland to Jebel Ali, and it charges USD 1,000 a container on any vessel that transits the Strait of Hormuz. It said on 25 June that three of its vessels remained in the Gulf.","hormuzPosture":"stopped","sourceUrl":"https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/11/middle-east-operational-update-46","sourceName":"Maersk · Middle East Operational Update 46","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z","advisoryDate":"2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"cma-cgm","carrier":"CMA CGM","rank":3,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":950,"vesselsTrapped":8,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-05T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"CMA CGM has activated Cape of Good Hope routing for all Asia–Europe services. Its chief financial officer said on the second-quarter earnings call on 30 July that eight of its vessels were inside the Gulf and unable to exit through the strait.","hormuzPosture":"unstated","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2026/07/cma-cgm-says-eight-of-its-vessels-remain-trapped-in-the-gulf/","sourceName":"CMA CGM Q2 earnings call, via WorldCargo News","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z","advisoryDate":"2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"cosco","carrier":"COSCO","rank":4,"status":"limited","surchargeUsdPerTeu":600,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-15T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"COSCO Shipping has suspended bookings to Bandar Abbas and routes Europe-bound services via the Cape. Two of its container ships crossed the strait in late March with Iranian clearance; it has not published a Gulf posture or vessel count since.","hormuzPosture":"unstated","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2026/03/two-giant-cosco-container-ships-pass-through-the-hormuz-on-second-attempt/","sourceName":"WorldCargo News","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z","advisoryDate":"2026-03-30T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"hapag-lloyd","carrier":"Hapag-Lloyd","rank":5,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":1100,"vesselsTrapped":0,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-03T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Hapag-Lloyd has suspended Hormuz transits and reroutes via the Cape. By 1 July it had moved all four of its vessels out of the Gulf.","hormuzPosture":"stopped","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2026/07/hapag-lloyd-maersk-and-cma-cgm-move-vessels-out-of-strait-of-hormuz/","sourceName":"WorldCargo News","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z","advisoryDate":"2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"one","carrier":"ONE","rank":6,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":900,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-02T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Ocean Network Express suspended new bookings to and from the Persian Gulf on 2 March 2026, citing safety for crew, vessels and cargo. No advisory newer than that has been found.","hormuzPosture":"stopped","sourceUrl":"https://www.one-line.com/en/news/temporary-suspension-bookings-and-persian-gulf","sourceName":"ONE · Temporary Suspension of Bookings to and from the Persian Gulf, 2 March 2026","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z","advisoryDate":"2026-03-02T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"evergreen","carrier":"Evergreen","rank":7,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":850,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-05T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Evergreen Marine suspended new bookings to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia (except Jeddah) and Iraq's Umm Qasr port on 5 March 2026, citing crew and vessel safety. No advisory newer than that has been found.","hormuzPosture":"stopped","sourceUrl":"https://container-news.com/evergreen-suspends-bookings-for-several-middle-east-ports/","sourceName":"Container News, 5 March 2026, citing Evergreen Marine advisory","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z","advisoryDate":"2026-03-05T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"hmm","carrier":"HMM","rank":8,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":800,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-13T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"HMM declared a service deviation for cargo linked to the Arabian Gulf, Red Sea and Horn of Africa on 13 March 2026 and said it would invoke its bill of lading rights over affected shipments. No advisory newer than that has been found.","hormuzPosture":"unstated","sourceUrl":"https://container-news.com/hmm-declares-deviation-for-middle-east-shipments/","sourceName":"Container News, 13 March 2026, citing HMM advisory","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z","advisoryDate":"2026-03-13T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"yang-ming","carrier":"Yang Ming","rank":9,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":750,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-26T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Yang Ming revised its GS2 service on 26 March 2026 and said on 20 April that ships bound for Middle East ports beyond Sohar, Oman would discharge at Khor Fakkan instead, with normal routing to resume once conditions allow. No advisory newer than that has been found.","hormuzPosture":"unstated","sourceUrl":"https://container-news.com/yang-ming-marine-transport-corporation-reroutes-middle-east-cargo-via-khor-fakkan/","sourceName":"Container News, 20 April 2026, citing Yang Ming advisory","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z","advisoryDate":"2026-04-20T00:00:00.000Z"}],"pipelineBypass":[{"id":"petroline","name":"Petroline (East-West Pipeline)","originCountry":"Saudi Arabia","terminus":"Yanbu (Red Sea)","capacityBpd":7000000,"currentUtilizationPct":0,"status":"offline","notes":"Saudi Aramco's East-West Pipeline carries Arabian Light from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, the single largest non-Hormuz route for Gulf crude. Saudi Arabia shut it as a precaution on 11 September 2026 after drones launched from Iraq struck it in the Riyadh and Medina areas, damaging pipeline equipment. Reuters reported it had been carrying 4 to 5 million barrels a day, close to all of the Saudi crude rerouted away from the strait, though Kpler put its August flow nearer 2 million, the lowest since January. On 22 September Reuters and Bloomberg, citing industry sources, reported a restart at a low pumping rate. On 24 September Reuters reported crude moving through the line to Saudi refineries on the Red Sea coast, but tanker loadings at Yanbu had not resumed. Saudi Aramco and the energy ministry have not confirmed the restart or given a flow figure, and no export cargo has been confirmed, so this row stays offline until loadings resume or a flow figure is confirmed.","sourceUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/","sourceName":"EIA · World Oil Transit Chokepoints, Al Jazeera, CNN, Reuters via Zawya (24 Sep 2026), Kpler via Al Jazeera (14 Sep 2026)","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"adcop","name":"ADCOP (Habshan-Fujairah)","originCountry":"United Arab Emirates","terminus":"Fujairah (Gulf of Oman)","capacityBpd":1500000,"currentUtilizationPct":100,"status":"operational","notes":"ADNOC's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline lifts UAE crude past the Strait of Hormuz to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, where it loads on tankers transiting the open Indian Ocean.","sourceUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/","sourceName":"EIA · World Oil Transit Chokepoints","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"goreh-jask","name":"Goreh-Jask Pipeline","originCountry":"Iran","terminus":"Jask (Gulf of Oman)","capacityBpd":350000,"currentUtilizationPct":40,"status":"partial","notes":"Iran's pipeline from the southwest oilfields to Jask on the Gulf of Oman bypasses the Strait, but throughput remains a fraction of nameplate capacity.","sourceUrl":null,"sourceName":"EIA · Iran Country Analysis","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z"}],"spr":{"currentMbbl":284.55,"change4wMbbl":-5.17,"asOfDate":"2026-09-18","updatedAt":"2026-09-29T15:01:29.346Z"},"gas":{"nationalAvgUsd":4.46,"nationalAvgCents":446,"stateCount":51,"newestUpdatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:48:07.732Z"},"dailyBrief":{"date":"2026-09-29","bullets":["The Maritime Executive reports a Kuwaiti tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz; this has not been independently confirmed.","A vessel was hit by a projectile in the strait and caught fire, per the UK maritime agency as reported by Anadolu Ajansı; The Maritime Executive and Lloyd's List also carry the report.","Brent stood at $102.94, down 3.00%, as of 23:57 UTC; IMF PortWatch recorded 1 transit on 2026-09-27, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day."],"summary":"The Strait of Hormuz remains a live combat zone. The Maritime Executive reports a Kuwaiti tanker was struck in the strait; the report has not been independently confirmed. Separately, Anadolu Ajansı reports the UK maritime agency says a vessel was hit by a projectile and caught fire in the strait, a claim The Maritime Executive and Lloyd's List also carry. Per gCaptain, the maritime picture in the strait is becoming harder to verify, with ship attacks going unreported for days before details emerge. India's Ministry of morungexpress.com says 163 Indian seafarers aboard 12 commercial vessels are currently in the Persian Gulf, per morungexpress.com. On the supply-route front, Iraq has begun importing gasoline via Syria's Baniyas port as an alternative to Hormuz transit, per India Today. On the diplomatic track, US-Iran talks continue after the US rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the strait, per ABC10; Caliber.Az reports Iran is awaiting a US response on its conditions. IMF PortWatch recorded 1 transit on 2026-09-27, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent stood at $102.94, down 3.00%, as of 23:57 UTC. The site recorded 42 indexed events in the last 24 hours. As of 23:50 UTC, 244 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.","brent":102.94,"brentDeltaPct":-3,"transitsToday":1,"transitsAsOfDate":"2026-09-27","transitsAgeDays":2,"source":"claude","generatedAt":"2026-09-29T23:58:33.770Z","eventCount":42},"predictionMarkets":[{"id":"polymarket_665374","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","question":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","probability":0.135,"volumeUsd":70215668.43972704,"volumeUnit":"usd","liquidityUsd":942972.9476,"closeAt":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","updatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:47:10.821Z"},{"id":"polymarket_2176270","venue":"polymarket","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","probability":0.205,"volumeUsd":13598489.653863996,"volumeUnit":"usd","liquidityUsd":427099.3834,"closeAt":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","updatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:47:10.821Z"},{"id":"polymarket_2774057","venue":"polymarket","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?","probability":0.0005,"volumeUsd":12156151.932391997,"volumeUnit":"usd","liquidityUsd":1099945.79385,"closeAt":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440","updatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:47:10.821Z"},{"id":"polymarket_3128887","venue":"polymarket","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?","question":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?","probability":0.0075,"volumeUsd":5398949.344046006,"volumeUnit":"usd","liquidityUsd":119617.95617,"closeAt":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","updatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:47:10.821Z"},{"id":"kalshi_KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?","question":"Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026? 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(Before Jul 1, 2027)","probability":0.45999999999999996,"volumeUsd":1596978.97,"volumeUnit":"contracts","liquidityUsd":0,"closeAt":"2027-07-01T13:59:00Z","sourceUrl":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17","updatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:47:10.821Z"}],"iranRate":{"pair":"IRR_USD","sellToman":254650,"buyToman":252100,"sellRial":2546500,"buyRial":2521000,"midRial":2533750,"deltaDayPct":4.0661258856145395,"delta7dPct":9.342971194303592,"updatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:09:09.433Z"},"chokepoints":[{"key":"hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz","date":"2026-09-27","nTotal":1,"deltaDay":-3,"preCrisisBaselineMedian":85,"baselineWindowStart":"2025-02-28","baselineWindowEnd":"2026-02-27","baselineMedian":3},{"key":"malacca","label":"Strait of Malacca","date":"2026-09-27","nTotal":201,"deltaDay":-21,"preCrisisBaselineMedian":237,"baselineWindowStart":"2025-02-28","baselineWindowEnd":"2026-02-27","baselineMedian":219.5},{"key":"cape","label":"Cape of Good Hope","date":"2026-09-27","nTotal":75,"deltaDay":-16,"preCrisisBaselineMedian":88,"baselineWindowStart":"2025-02-28","baselineWindowEnd":"2026-02-27","baselineMedian":86},{"key":"suez","label":"Suez Canal","date":"2026-09-27","nTotal":37,"deltaDay":-11,"preCrisisBaselineMedian":39,"baselineWindowStart":"2025-02-28","baselineWindowEnd":"2026-02-27","baselineMedian":40.5},{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","label":"Bab el-Mandeb","date":"2026-09-27","nTotal":27,"deltaDay":-2,"preCrisisBaselineMedian":34,"baselineWindowStart":"2025-02-28","baselineWindowEnd":"2026-02-27","baselineMedian":25.5}],"chokepointsNote":"preCrisisBaselineMedian on every row is computed over one fixed window (baselineWindowStart to baselineWindowEnd) anchored to the Hormuz crisis. For hormuz that window is a genuine pre-crisis baseline. For bab-el-mandeb, suez and cape it is not: those routes were already carrying diverted Red Sea traffic within that window, so preCrisisBaselineMedian for those rows reads as wartime volume, not a peacetime figure.","hormuzSnapshot":{"source":"stale","stale":true,"inPortTotal":null,"expectedTotal":210,"arrivals24hTotal":514,"departures24hTotal":null,"transitsLast24h":514,"portsContributing":5,"asOf":"2026-08-28T13:22:02.923Z","note":"transitsLast24h counts port arrivals only (departures are not published upstream), across ports on both sides of the strait. Not a Hormuz crossing count. Use transits.count for that. An arrival is a port-area entry event rather than a distinct hull: adjacent ports double count and an anchorage reposition can re-trigger one, so read arrivals24hTotal as an activity index. expectedTotal is a 30-day forward book (ships expected within the next 30 days), not a queue waiting now. This feed is retired: the upstream port pages moved these aggregates behind a subscription on 2026-08-28 and have published none since, so the figures are frozen at asOf. For live Hormuz-corridor port activity use /api/v1/ports; for live Cape traffic use the cape row in chokepoints above."},"capeSnapshot":{"source":"stale","stale":true,"inPortTotal":null,"expectedTotal":150,"arrivals24hTotal":64,"departures24hTotal":null,"transitsLast24h":64,"portsContributing":4,"asOf":"2026-08-28T08:11:00.812Z","note":"transitsLast24h counts port arrivals only (departures are not published upstream), across ports on both sides of the strait. Not a Hormuz crossing count. Use transits.count for that. An arrival is a port-area entry event rather than a distinct hull: adjacent ports double count and an anchorage reposition can re-trigger one, so read arrivals24hTotal as an activity index. expectedTotal is a 30-day forward book (ships expected within the next 30 days), not a queue waiting now. This feed is retired: the upstream port pages moved these aggregates behind a subscription on 2026-08-28 and have published none since, so the figures are frozen at asOf. For live Hormuz-corridor port activity use /api/v1/ports; for live Cape traffic use the cape row in chokepoints above."},"events":[{"id":"rss_h7ykh","title":"U.S.-Iran talks continue after Trump rejects Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal","description":"","lat":null,"lng":null,"type":"negotiation","severity":"low","occurredAt":"2026-09-29T18:19:00.000Z","source":"live","vessel":null},{"id":"gdelt_sdrtlo","title":"163 Indian seafarers on board 12 commercial vessels in Persian Gulf currently , confirms MEA","description":"","lat":null,"lng":null,"type":"ship_incident","severity":"high","occurredAt":"2026-09-29T17:45:00.000Z","source":"live","vessel":null},{"id":"rss_1ysbohz","title":"Iraq imports petrol via Syria's Baniyas port as Hormuz closure bites","description":"","lat":null,"lng":null,"type":"closure","severity":"high","occurredAt":"2026-09-29T17:28:37.000Z","source":"live","vessel":null},{"id":"rss_81x127","title":"Kuwaiti Tanker Struck in the Strait of Hormuz","description":"","lat":null,"lng":null,"type":"ship_incident","severity":"high","occurredAt":"2026-09-29T17:15:56.000Z","source":"live","vessel":null},{"id":"rss_b0xytj","title":"Iraq begins importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz","description":"","lat":null,"lng":null,"type":"closure","severity":"high","occurredAt":"2026-09-29T16:57:33.000Z","source":"live","vessel":null},{"id":"rss_1kos9j6","title":"Fog of War Deepens in Hormuz as Ship Attacks Go Unreported for Days","description":"The maritime picture in the Strait of Hormuz is becoming harder to verify, with another delayed report of a vessel strike raising questions over how much of the fighting is...","lat":null,"lng":null,"type":"strike","severity":"medium","occurredAt":"2026-09-29T15:53:56.000Z","source":"live","vessel":null},{"id":"gdelt_cxsejc","title":"Oil Slides As Qatar Touts  Talk Again ; Iran Struck Large Crude Tanker Overnight","description":"","lat":null,"lng":null,"type":"ship_incident","severity":"high","occurredAt":"2026-09-29T14:45:00.000Z","source":"live","vessel":null},{"id":"rss_1nurtcp","title":"Strait Of Hormuz On Edge As Vessel Hit By Unknown Projectile, Fire Breaks Out","description":"","lat":null,"lng":null,"type":"ship_incident","severity":"high","occurredAt":"2026-09-29T14:06:18.000Z","source":"live","vessel":null},{"id":"rss_yq8pd1","title":"Fire breaks out on vessel hit by projectile in Strait of Hormuz: UK maritime agency","description":"","lat":null,"lng":null,"type":"ship_incident","severity":"high","occurredAt":"2026-09-29T13:52:18.000Z","source":"live","vessel":null},{"id":"rss_zmb0te","title":"Vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO says - وكالة الأنباء السورية","description":"","lat":null,"lng":null,"type":"ship_incident","severity":"high","occurredAt":"2026-09-29T13:48:57.000Z","source":"live","vessel":null}],"_deprecated":{"note":"shipsTransiting, stranded, throughputPercent, transitsBaseline, insuranceMultiple, and status mix sources or are scalar projections of richer objects. status in particular switches producer (PortWatch, falling back to AIS) without saying which; use transits.*, insurance.*, dailyTransits.*, and verdict.status instead.","fields":["shipsTransiting","stranded","throughputPercent","transitsBaseline","insuranceMultiple","status"]},"dataHealthNote":"dataHealth.events reflects producer health, not event recency, UNLESS no event has arrived for 12 hours, after which it falls back to the plain event-age gate, so a very quiet stretch beyond 12 hours can still read stale even with a healthy pipeline. Use dataHealth.events.verifiedAt for the newest event time.","dataHealth":{"oil":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-30T01:53:34.188Z"},"ships":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-30T01:37:34.923Z"},"events":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-29T18:19:00.000Z"},"insurance":{"source":"curated","verifiedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z"},"tradeImpact":{"source":"curated","verifiedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z"},"carriers":{"source":"curated","verifiedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z"},"pipelines":{"source":"curated","verifiedAt":"2026-09-27T12:01:16.491Z","authoredAt":"2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z"},"dailyBrief":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-29T23:58:33.770Z"},"markets":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-30T01:47:10.821Z"},"sanctioned":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-30T01:53:11.372Z"},"ports":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-30T01:50:05.722Z"},"stranded":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-30T01:50:05.722Z"},"aisGaps":{"source":"stale","verifiedAt":"2026-09-28T22:43:13.406Z"},"dailyTransits":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z"},"chokepoint":{"source":"stale","verifiedAt":"2026-08-28T13:22:02.923Z"},"cape":{"source":"stale","verifiedAt":"2026-08-28T08:11:00.812Z"},"vesselRisk":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-30T01:53:09.550Z"},"spr":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-29T15:01:29.346Z"},"gas":{"source":"live","verifiedAt":"2026-09-30T01:48:07.732Z"}},"links":{"self":"https://straits.live/status","index":"https://straits.live/api/index","tick":"https://straits.live/api/v1/tick","events":"https://straits.live/api/v1/events","oil":"https://straits.live/api/v1/oil","spr":"https://straits.live/api/v1/spr","gas":"https://straits.live/api/v1/gas","markets":"https://straits.live/api/v1/markets","ports":"https://straits.live/api/v1/ports","aisGaps":"https://straits.live/api/v1/ais-gaps","stranded":"https://straits.live/api/v1/stranded","sanctionedVessels":"https://straits.live/api/v1/sanctioned-vessels","since":"https://straits.live/api/v1/since","cushing":"https://straits.live/api/v1/cushing","transitsByType":"https://straits.live/api/v1/transits-by-type","transits":"https://straits.live/api/v1/transits","chokepoints":"https://straits.live/api/v1/chokepoints","hormuzSnapshot":"https://straits.live/api/v1/hormuz-snapshot","capeSnapshot":"https://straits.live/api/v1/cape-snapshot","iranRate":"https://straits.live/api/v1/iran-rate","briefs":"https://straits.live/api/v1/briefs","insurance":"https://straits.live/api/v1/insurance","tradeImpact":"https://straits.live/api/v1/trade-impact","carriers":"https://straits.live/api/v1/carriers","pipelines":"https://straits.live/api/v1/pipelines","jwc":"https://straits.live/api/v1/jwc","vessels":"https://straits.live/api/v1/vessels","eventsFeed":"https://straits.live/feed.xml","briefsFeed":"https://straits.live/briefs/feed.xml","statusFeed":"https://straits.live/status/feed.xml","sanctionedVesselsFeed":"https://straits.live/sanctioned-vessels/feed.xml"},"premium":{"url":"https://straits.live/api#premium","mcp":"https://straits.live/api/mcp","note":"Machine-payable premium endpoints (x402, USDC on Base): full vessel manifest with sanctions cross-reference, hourly history capped at one year with actual depth growing daily, one-call snapshot, structured daily brief, single-vessel dossiers, bulk export, real-time streaming, threshold-alert webhooks, a Hormuz flag rollup, a shadow-fleet risk screen of the vessels active on AIS in the Persian Gulf window, bunker and marine-fuel prices, and a modeled war-risk premium nowcast. $0.01-$0.50 per request, no key or account. MCP connector at the mcp URL."}}