{"verdict":{"status":"closed","short":"No","long":"The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial shipping.","basis":"carriers"},"status":"restricted","asOf":"2026-07-01T00:31:48.990Z","hormuzIndex":{"methodologyVersion":"0.4.0","methodologyUrl":"https://straits.live/methodology#hormuz-index","asOf":"2026-07-01T00:28:05.597Z","crisisPressure":{"value":90,"band":"extreme","confidence":6,"delta24h":0,"indexHealth":"fresh"},"escalationProbability":{"value":64,"band":"high","confidence":9,"delta24h":-5,"indexHealth":"fresh"}},"transits":{"count":5,"baseline":93,"throughputPct":5,"basis":"portwatch","baselineSource":"portwatch-precrisis","cadence":"daily","asOfDate":"2026-06-21","asOfAgeDays":10,"stale":true,"provisional":false,"partialDayAdjusted":false,"rawLatest":5,"cadenceNote":"Completed daily transits (IMF PortWatch crossing count). Not the same as aisConcurrentInZone, which is a snapshot of vessels inside the Strait box right now."},"dailyTransits":{"date":"2026-06-21","nTotal":5,"nTanker":0,"nCargo":5,"nContainer":0,"nDryBulk":3,"nGeneralCargo":2,"nRoro":0,"capacity":170441,"capacityTanker":0,"capacityCargo":170441,"baselineMedian":4,"preCrisisBaselineMedian":93,"previousNTotal":23,"previousDate":"2026-06-20","updatedAt":"2026-06-30T14:00:49.428Z"},"aisConcurrentInZone":113,"shipsTransiting":113,"stranded":387,"throughputPercent":5,"transitsBaseline":{"median":51,"mean":87.65,"p10":17,"p90":186,"sampleHours":720,"windowHours":720,"updatedAt":"2026-07-01T00:03:14.156Z"},"brent":73.48,"wti":70.14,"change24h":-2.37,"change24hUsd":-1.74,"oilAsOf":"2026-07-01T00:28:12.755Z","insurance":{"multiple":8,"vlccPremiumLow":125000,"vlccPremiumHigh":2500000,"withdrawnClubs":["Gard","Skuld","North Standard","London P&I Club","American Club","Steamship Mutual"],"sourceUrl":"https://lmalloyds.com/committee/joint-war-committee/","sourceName":"Lloyd's Joint War Committee","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},"insuranceMultiple":8,"aisGaps":{"count":0,"baseline7d":12.8,"baselineSampleHours":168,"vesselsTracked":4202,"topVessels":[],"updatedAt":"2026-07-01T00:13:12.612Z"},"vesselRisk":{"high":45,"moderate":9,"low":619,"total":673,"updatedAt":"2026-07-01T00:03:25.115Z"},"jwc":{"circularUrl":"https://lmalloyds.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/JWLA-033-Iran.docx","circularLabel":"JWLA-033 Iran","circularDate":"2025-06-01","contentHash":"2dff4b42352d3ab1","arabianGulfMentioned":true,"lastChangedAt":"2026-05-09T01:49:57.040Z","updatedAt":"2026-06-30T22:01:14.221Z"},"tradeImpact":{"worldOilAtRiskPct":21,"worldLngAtRiskPct":25,"dailyEconomicCostUsd":4000000000,"topAffectedCountries":["South Korea","Japan","India","China","EU"],"alternativeRouteExtraDays":14,"sourceUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","sourceName":"straits.live estimate · EIA/IEA reference data","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},"carrierSuspensions":[{"id":"msc","carrier":"MSC","rank":1,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":1200,"vesselsTrapped":15,"trappedTeu":109000,"since":"2026-03-04T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Mediterranean Shipping Company is routing all Asia–Europe vessels via the Cape of Good Hope; Gulf calls limited to escorted convoys.","sourceUrl":"https://www.msc.com/en/newsroom","sourceName":"MSC · Newsroom","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},{"id":"maersk","carrier":"Maersk","rank":2,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":1000,"vesselsTrapped":14,"trappedTeu":70000,"since":"2026-03-02T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"A.P. Moller–Maersk has suspended new Strait of Hormuz transits and is rerouting Gulf-bound cargo via Jebel Ali transhipment with Cape diversions for Asia–Europe.","sourceUrl":"https://www.maersk.com/news/advisories","sourceName":"Maersk · Customer advisories","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},{"id":"cma-cgm","carrier":"CMA CGM","rank":3,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":950,"vesselsTrapped":1,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-05T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"CMA CGM has activated Cape of Good Hope routing for all Asia–Europe services; spot rates up roughly 60% on affected lanes.","sourceUrl":"https://www.cma-cgm.com/news","sourceName":"CMA CGM · News","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},{"id":"cosco","carrier":"COSCO","rank":4,"status":"limited","surchargeUsdPerTeu":600,"vesselsTrapped":5,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-15T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"COSCO Shipping continues selective Gulf transits under convoy escort but has suspended bookings to Bandar Abbas; Cape rerouting in effect for Europe-bound.","sourceUrl":"https://lines.coscoshipping.com/home/Services/notice","sourceName":"COSCO Shipping Lines · Notices","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},{"id":"hapag-lloyd","carrier":"Hapag-Lloyd","rank":5,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":1100,"vesselsTrapped":6,"trappedTeu":25000,"since":"2026-03-03T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Hapag-Lloyd has suspended Hormuz transits and is rerouting via the Cape; surcharges layered on top of existing Red Sea contingency adders.","sourceUrl":"https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/online-business/customer-information.html","sourceName":"Hapag-Lloyd · Customer information","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},{"id":"one","carrier":"ONE","rank":6,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":900,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-06T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Ocean Network Express is routing Asia–Europe via the Cape; Gulf service suspended pending convoy availability.","sourceUrl":"https://www.one-line.com/en/news/news","sourceName":"ONE · News","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},{"id":"evergreen","carrier":"Evergreen","rank":7,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":850,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-08T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Evergreen Marine is diverting Asia–Europe loops via the Cape and has paused new Gulf bookings.","sourceUrl":"https://www.evergreen-marine.com/tuf1/jsp/TUF1_NewsAction.jsp","sourceName":"Evergreen Marine · News","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},{"id":"hmm","carrier":"HMM","rank":8,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":800,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-09T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"HMM has implemented Cape rerouting for Asia–Europe and is operating limited Gulf service through alliance partners.","sourceUrl":"https://www.hmm21.com/cms/company/engn/notice/notice.jsp","sourceName":"HMM · Notices","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},{"id":"yang-ming","carrier":"Yang Ming","rank":9,"status":"rerouting","surchargeUsdPerTeu":750,"vesselsTrapped":null,"trappedTeu":null,"since":"2026-03-12T00:00:00.000Z","notes":"Yang Ming Marine Transport has shifted Asia–Europe services to the Cape route in coordination with THE Alliance partners.","sourceUrl":"https://www.yangming.com/News/customer_notice.aspx","sourceName":"Yang Ming · Customer notices","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"}],"pipelineBypass":[{"id":"petroline","name":"Petroline (East-West Pipeline)","originCountry":"Saudi Arabia","terminus":"Yanbu (Red Sea)","capacityBpd":5000000,"currentUtilizationPct":95,"status":"operational","notes":"Saudi Aramco's East-West Pipeline carries Arabian Light from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, the single largest non-Hormuz route for Gulf crude.","sourceUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","sourceName":"EIA · World Oil Transit Chokepoints","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},{"id":"adcop","name":"ADCOP (Habshan-Fujairah)","originCountry":"United Arab Emirates","terminus":"Fujairah (Gulf of Oman)","capacityBpd":1500000,"currentUtilizationPct":100,"status":"operational","notes":"ADNOC's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline lifts UAE crude past the Strait of Hormuz to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, where it loads on tankers transiting the open Indian Ocean.","sourceUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","sourceName":"EIA · World Oil Transit Chokepoints","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"},{"id":"goreh-jask","name":"Goreh-Jask Pipeline","originCountry":"Iran","terminus":"Jask (Gulf of Oman)","capacityBpd":350000,"currentUtilizationPct":40,"status":"partial","notes":"Iran's pipeline from the southwest oilfields to Jask on the Gulf of Oman bypasses the Strait, but throughput remains a fraction of nameplate capacity.","sourceUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/IRN","sourceName":"EIA · Iran Country Analysis","updatedAt":"2026-06-28T12:00:35.331Z"}],"spr":{"currentMbbl":331.19,"change4wMbbl":-33.92,"asOfDate":"2026-06-19","updatedAt":"2026-06-30T15:00:59.652Z"},"gas":{"nationalAvgUsd":3.88,"nationalAvgCents":388,"stateCount":51,"newestUpdatedAt":"2026-06-30T23:47:16.911Z"},"dailyBrief":{"date":"2026-06-30","bullets":["The IRGC has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if Doha talks fail, per WSJ, though the US reports vessels still transiting and disputes any closure.","Crisis Pressure holds at 90 (extreme) while the 30-day Escalation Forecast eases to 64 (high), a divergence driven by Polymarket closure odds softening even as physical transit deviation remains the dominant stress.","Brent crude fell 2.44% in 24 hours to $73.42 as scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports registered 332 vessels against 528 anchored or stopped."],"summary":"The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of a contested operational picture: the IRGC has threatened full closure if indirect talks in Doha collapse, a warning amplified by Iranian state media and reported by the Wall Street Journal, while the US and CENTCOM maintain there is no evidence of an actual closure and report vessels continuing to transit. The two positions are unresolved, and this site's carrier posture verdict leans cautious toward closed without asserting the physical channel is sealed. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-06-21, recorded just 5 transits through the strait, against a pre-crisis baseline of 93 per day; separately, an independent Gulf-port scraper counted 332 arrivals in the most recent 24-hour window, a figure that reflects a different methodology and scope and cannot be directly compared to the PortWatch number. The Hormuz Index state composite sits at 90, rated extreme, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor. The 30-day escalation forecast, at 64 (high), has pulled back five points, driven by softening Polymarket closure odds, illustrating that current stress and near-term trajectory are diverging rather than confirming each other. Brent slid 2.44% to $73.42, reflecting market relief around partial diplomatic momentum even as the structural risk picture remains unresolved. US envoys are in Doha while Iran continues to load additional demands onto any framework, and Iran's parliamentary speaker has confirmed that toll-free passage would be capped at 60 days under any deal, per Crypto Briefing.","brent":73.42,"brentDeltaPct":-2.44,"transitsToday":5,"source":"claude","generatedAt":"2026-06-30T23:52:23.637Z"},"predictionMarkets":[{"id":"polymarket_665374","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","question":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","probability":0.145,"volumeUsd":39075552.15592909,"liquidityUsd":433358.3855,"closeAt":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","updatedAt":"2026-07-01T00:18:18.919Z"},{"id":"polymarket_663583","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","question":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","probability":0.095,"volumeUsd":20948170.406514447,"liquidityUsd":517092.6104,"closeAt":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","updatedAt":"2026-07-01T00:18:18.919Z"},{"id":"polymarket_1472548","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","question":"Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?","probability":0.0445,"volumeUsd":11555036.876964431,"liquidityUsd":137533.8688,"closeAt":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026","updatedAt":"2026-07-01T00:18:18.919Z"},{"id":"polymarket_2176262","venue":"polymarket","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","probability":0.305,"volumeUsd":11051056.377383197,"liquidityUsd":285800.9083,"closeAt":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31","updatedAt":"2026-07-01T00:18:18.919Z"},{"id":"kalshi_KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?","question":"Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026? 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