Hormuz Situation Report

Status

No.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial shipping. As of 30 JUN 2026 · 2307Z, that has held for 122 days. Verdict basis: carriers (the call stays closed until major carriers resume transits, whatever the day’s announcements say; individual escorted passages do occur).

Headline metrics

Container carriers

The nine largest container carriers by global TEU. 8 of 9 have suspended Hormuz transits or rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope. At least 41 (204K TEU) carrier vessels remain stranded inside the Gulf per confirmed advisories.

Bypass pipelines

War-risk insurance

Lloyd’s Joint War Committee has the strait at multiples of normal premium: the quoted rate runs at 8.0× peacetime. Reported VLCC voyage quotes range from ~$125K in peacetime to ~$2.5M at the top of the current band.

Port congestion

Timeline · past 14 days

1. JUN 30

   Iran’s leverage over Strait of Hormuz snarls Trump’s push for a deal

   Iran’s leverage over Strait of Hormuz snarls Trump’s push for a deal The Washington Post

2. JUN 30

   US envoys arrive in Qatar with state of Iran talks unclear

   US envoys arrive in Qatar with state of Iran talks unclear DW.com

3. JUN 30

   Iran’s Qalibaf confirms toll-free Strait of Hormuz passage limited to 60 days under US deal

   Iran’s Qalibaf confirms toll-free Strait of Hormuz passage limited to 60 days under US deal Crypto Briefing

4. JUN 30

   US-Iran talks resume as Hormuz shipping dispute escalates

   US-Iran talks resume as Hormuz shipping dispute escalates The Jerusalem Post

5. JUN 30

   China FM calls for keeping momentum of Iran-US talks

   TEHRAN, Jun. 30 (MNA) – Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday called for the maintaining momentum of negotiations between the United States and Iran.

6. JUN 30

   Setting the rules of ownership in the Strait of Hormuz

   Setting the rules of ownership in the Strait of Hormuz Tehran Times

7. JUN 30

   Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic rebounds after strikes between Iran, US

   Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic rebounds after strikes between Iran, US The Hill

8. JUN 30

   Surge in ship traffic across Strait of Hormuz as Iran, Oman talk

   Surge in ship traffic across Strait of Hormuz as Iran, Oman talk The Hindu

9. JUN 30

   Iran Ratchets Up Talk of Controlling Hormuz Before New Talks

   Iran Ratchets Up Talk of Controlling Hormuz Before New Talks gCaptain

10. JUN 30

    US-Iran talks over $6bn Iranian assets to restart

    US-Iran talks over $6bn Iranian assets to restart The Guardian

11. JUN 30

    Government spokesperson praises navy’s role in safeguarding maritime security during recent war

    Tehran, IRNA – Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani has praised the country’s navy for its key role in protecting Iran’s maritime security during the recent US-Israeli-imposed war, highlighting its operational performance in countering threats at sea.

12. JUN 30

    UN Warns Hormuz Crisis Will Leave Lasting Economic Scars Despite Shipping Recovery

    The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may ease immediate pressure on global shipping and energy markets, but the economic fallout from more than 100 days of disruption will continue...

13. JUN 30

    IRGC threatens to close Strait of Hormuz if Doha talks fail: WSJ

    IRGC threatens to close Strait of Hormuz if Doha talks fail: WSJ Crypto Briefing

14. JUN 30

    Iran, US to continue negotiation in Qatar despite recent strikes, drone attacks

    Iran, US to continue negotiation in Qatar despite recent strikes, drone attacks The Jerusalem Post

15. JUN 30

    Significant Drop in Tanker Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz

    Significant Drop in Tanker Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz taghribnews.com

16. JUN 30

    Qatar rules out direct US–Iran talks amid widening regional strain

    Qatar rules out direct US–Iran talks amid widening regional strain Vatican News

17. JUN 30

    The Strait of Hormuz and the New Politics of Maritime Power

    The Strait of Hormuz and the New Politics of Maritime Power Frontline Magazine

18. JUN 30

    Tanker S&P market takes a breather as dealmakers wait on Strait of Hormuz updates

    Tanker S&P market takes a breather as dealmakers wait on Strait of Hormuz updates TradeWinds News

19. JUN 30

    Commercial ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises more than 50% over past week

    Commercial ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz rises more than 50% over past week Middle East Monitor

20. JUN 30

    Iran says forces remain on alert, warns of response to any ceasefire violations

    Tehran, IRNA – Acting defense minister says that Iran’s armed forces remain on high alert and would respond decisively to any breach of the current ceasefire with the United States, while blaming the opposing side of violating the truce on several occasions.

21. JUN 30

    Economists Agree: 2026 Oil price forecasts lowered as Strait of Hormuz shipping improves – Reuters poll

    Economists Agree: 2026 Oil price forecasts lowered as Strait of Hormuz shipping improves – Reuters poll FXStreet

22. JUN 30

    Traffic in Strait of Hormuz continues ahead of talks

    Traffic in Strait of Hormuz continues ahead of talks NBC News

23. JUN 30

    The 1968 Pact on Shipping Routes in the Strait of Hormuz That Iran Is Rejecting

    The 1968 Pact on Shipping Routes in the Strait of Hormuz That Iran Is Rejecting The New York Times

24. JUN 30

    US-Iran Tensions: Conflicting Reports On Doha Talks, Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Restored

    US-Iran Tensions: Conflicting Reports On Doha Talks, Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Restored Fox Rio Grande Valley

Methodology

Oil prices: intraday Brent/WTI futures via Yahoo Finance, EIA daily closes as backstop. Vessel positions: AISStream Persian Gulf bbox (22–28°N, 54–60°E), 5-minute polling. Transit/stranded counts: AIS navigation status aggregated hourly. War-risk insurance: Lloyd’s Joint War Committee listed-area circulars. Carrier postures: curated from carrier customer advisories and trade press (Reuters, Lloyd’s List, gCaptain). Sanctioned vessels: OFAC SDN list × AIS by IMO and name. Events: GDELT plus curated trade-press citations. Full method notes at straits.live/methodology.