Is the Strait of Hormuz open?

On 28 February 2026, US-Israeli airstrikes (Operation Epic Fury) triggered Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to close the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. A formal closure declaration followed in early March 2026, producing the dual blockade that continues to define the crisis.

In the weeks that followed, eight of the world’s nine largest container carriers either suspended Hormuz transits outright or began routing Asia–Europe traffic south of the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly two weeks to every leg. War-risk insurers repriced cover for the new posture, and the strait now runs at multiples of normal premium; spot war-risk quotes for VLCC voyages climbed from roughly $250,000 to $10 million.

Combined bypass capacity from the Petroline, ADCOP, and Goreh-Jask pipelines is roughly 52% of normal Hormuz crude flow on paper, about 8.85 mbpd of nameplate against 17 mbpd. Petroline (East-West Pipeline) is offline now, so the lines are actually moving only about 10% of normal flow. Most Gulf crude has nowhere to go that doesn’t cross the chokepoint; see /pipelines for the live breakdown.

A diplomatic breakthrough arrived June 17, 2026: the Islamabad Memorandum, a 14-point US-Iran framework brokered by Pakistan (with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt facilitating), was signed by Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian. Its terms were to reopen the strait toll-free for 60 days, end the US naval blockade of Iran, and extend the ceasefire 60 days, but it did not hold: the ceasefire frayed within days and the strait was contested again. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since February 28, 2026. Iran re-declared it closed after the July ceasefire collapsed, and the war has spread to a second chokepoint, where Yemen's Houthis now hold the Yemeni side of the Bab el-Mandeb. US forces have destroyed Iranian tankers and Iran has fired missiles at US warships and bases, while merchant ships are still being hit: the tanker El Gaia burned off Oman with crew missing, and Iran says it struck and detained a Togo-flagged tanker on September 17 for crossing without its permission. Drones launched from Iraq shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the largest route around the strait, on September 11; Reuters and Bloomberg report a low-rate restart on September 22 that Saudi Aramco has not confirmed. How much is moving is now contested: US Central Command says it has escorted more than a billion barrels out in two months and that volumes are at a six-month high, and a US official said about 60 ships crossed on September 24, while independent trackers and our own count still show traffic far below pre-war levels, with Reuters counting nine commodity vessels that day. On September 23 a seafarer was killed when projectiles hit the bulk carrier Cape Dao off Oman. After indirect talks through mediators at the UN General Assembly, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi set out a seven-day plan on September 25: the United States would release frozen assets, lift oil sanctions and end its blockade, fighting would stop, and Iran would reopen the strait on the seventh day. The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed US officials, reported that President Trump rejected it; the White House hasn't said so publicly. Roughly 280 ships are holding position away from berth inside the Gulf rather than under way, sea mines are uncleared, and war-risk insurance is still around 10% of hull value. Commercial traffic remains cut off (Iran says the strait remains closed and the US disputes that) while the framework is in dispute. The dated diplomatic timeline tracks where that stands.