Is the Strait of Hormuz open?

On 28 February 2026, US-Israeli airstrikes (Operation Epic Fury) triggered Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to close the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. A formal closure declaration followed in early March 2026, producing the dual blockade that continues to define the crisis.

In the weeks that followed, the world’s nine largest container carriers either suspended Hormuz transits outright or began routing Asia–Europe traffic south of the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly two weeks to every leg. Lloyd’s Joint War Committee reflected the new posture by listing the strait at multiples of normal premium; spot war-risk quotes for VLCC voyages climbed from roughly $125,000 into the low millions.

Combined bypass capacity from the Petroline, ADCOP, and Goreh-Jask pipelines amounts to roughly 40% of normal Hormuz throughput. The remaining 60% of Gulf crude has nowhere to go that doesn’t cross the chokepoint.

A diplomatic breakthrough arrived June 17, 2026: the Islamabad Memorandum, a 14-point US-Iran framework brokered by Pakistan (with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt facilitating), was signed by Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian. Its terms require Iran to reopen the strait toll-free for 60 days, end the US naval blockade of Iran, and extend the ceasefire 60 days. Roughly 350 ships remain stranded on either side, sea mines are uncleared, and war-risk insurance is still around 2-4% of hull value. The reopening has since stalled (transit has since been disrupted by fresh attacks on shipping in the strait), so commercial traffic remains contested. The dated diplomatic timeline tracks where that stands.