Is the Strait of Hormuz open?

On 28 February 2026, US-Israeli airstrikes (Operation Epic Fury) triggered Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to close the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. A formal closure declaration followed in early March 2026, producing the dual blockade that continues to define the crisis.

In the weeks that followed, eight of the world’s nine largest container carriers either suspended Hormuz transits outright or began routing Asia–Europe traffic south of the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly two weeks to every leg. War-risk insurers repriced cover for the new posture, and the strait now runs at multiples of normal premium; spot war-risk quotes for VLCC voyages climbed from roughly $250,000 to $10 million.

Combined bypass capacity from the Petroline, ADCOP, and Goreh-Jask pipelines amounts to roughly 40% of normal Hormuz crude flow, about 6.85 mbpd of nameplate against 17 mbpd. The remaining 60% of Gulf crude has nowhere to go that doesn’t cross the chokepoint, and the lines are already running close to capacity, so the spare headroom today is a fraction of that nameplate figure.

A diplomatic breakthrough arrived June 17, 2026: the Islamabad Memorandum, a 14-point US-Iran framework brokered by Pakistan (with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt facilitating), was signed by Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian. Its terms were to reopen the strait toll-free for 60 days, end the US naval blockade of Iran, and extend the ceasefire 60 days, but it did not hold: the ceasefire frayed within days and the strait was contested again. In early July Iran attacked commercial ships in the strait, the United States answered with a bombing campaign and reimposed sanctions and its naval blockade, and President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8. Iran has retaliated against US bases in Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait and re-declared the strait closed until further notice, while an Oman-mediated corridor through Omani waters stays contested. In late July the war widened to a second chokepoint when Yemen's Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. A three-night pause in the strikes broke on July 28, when Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan, all intercepted per US Central Command; the United States answered with strikes on militia sites in Iraq and then a heavy overnight wave on Iran itself, which Iranian state media say killed a family of three on Qeshm Island. On July 30 a drone hit two LNG vessels at Egypt's Damietta port, the first time the war has touched Egypt; no one has claimed it and Iran denies involvement. Saudi Arabia announced a 14-country Maritime Defense Alliance for shipping routes. Oman is mediating, but Iran rejected its plan to manage the strait jointly under voluntary fees. Traffic has begun to return: a Qatari LNG tanker made the first such transit in nearly three weeks and analysts put throughput at roughly a third of pre-war levels at the end of July, against the 5% IMF PortWatch counted over that week. On August 1 two tankers were hit off Oman near the strait within hours of each other, one of them carrying natural gas, and Kuwait intercepted Iranian drones aimed at a US base. On August 2 President Trump called off a planned attack on Iran, saying Gulf leaders had asked him for a deal instead and that its outline was agreed, covering the immediate opening of the strait and an end to what he called Iran's nuclear threat, with talks to resume on August 3. Tehran denies it is negotiating with Washington at all, says its talks are with Oman over a temporary route, and says the strait will not go back to its pre-war state. Nothing has been signed, tankers were still being hit off Oman during the stand-down, and Brent fell about seven dollars over those two days to the low $80s. Tehran still calls the strait closed; the US military publicly rejects that, saying ships are still transiting. By August 5 Iran and Oman said their draft agreement was in its final stage, with the coordinates of a transit route through both countries' waters agreed and a joint statement being drafted, and President Trump said a deal could come within the week. It still needs Washington: Iran says the strait stays shut until the United States ends its blockade, the United States rules out any arrangement that cements Iranian control, and reports citing unnamed sources say the draft would require Gulf-bound ships to coordinate with Tehran. Yemen's Houthis meanwhile claimed an eighth attack on a Saudi tanker and a further ballistic-missile strike in the Gulf of Aden. On August 8 the United Arab Emirates said Iran had hit one of its ADNOC tankers with a missile inside the strait and accused Tehran of piracy, and a day later a Liberian-flagged tanker was struck with five Indian crew aboard. Iran has since put a price on reopening, passing Washington a list of conditions through its foreign minister, and the Revolutionary Guard says the strait stays shut until every one is met. Brent slipped below $80 on August 6 and has since traded back into the low $80s. The International Maritime Organization put the number of seafarers stranded in the Gulf at roughly 6,000 in mid-July. Roughly 300 ships are holding position away from berth inside the Gulf rather than under way, sea mines are uncleared, and war-risk insurance is still around 7.5% of hull value. Commercial traffic remains cut off (transit has since been disrupted by fresh attacks on shipping in the strait) while the framework is in dispute. The dated diplomatic timeline tracks where that stands.