Is the Strait of Hormuz open?

On 28 February 2026, US-Israeli airstrikes (Operation Epic Fury) triggered Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to close the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. A formal closure declaration followed in early March 2026, producing the dual blockade that continues to define the crisis.

In the weeks that followed, the world’s nine largest container carriers either suspended Hormuz transits outright or began routing Asia–Europe traffic south of the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly two weeks to every leg. Lloyd’s Joint War Committee reflected the new posture by listing the strait at multiples of normal premium; spot war-risk quotes for VLCC voyages climbed from roughly $125,000 into the low millions.

Combined bypass capacity from the Petroline, ADCOP, and Goreh-Jask pipelines amounts to roughly 40% of normal Hormuz throughput. The remaining 60% of Gulf crude has nowhere to go that doesn’t cross the chokepoint.

A diplomatic breakthrough arrived June 17, 2026: the Islamabad Memorandum, a 14-point US-Iran framework brokered by Pakistan (with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt facilitating), was signed by Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian. Its terms were to reopen the strait toll-free for 60 days, end the US naval blockade of Iran, and extend the ceasefire 60 days, but it did not hold: the ceasefire frayed within days and the strait was contested again. In early July Iran attacked commercial ships in the strait, the United States struck more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed oil sanctions, and President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8. On July 8 and 9 US forces struck Iranian coastal cities on consecutive nights, and Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes on US bases in Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. A limited and contested trickle of transits has since resumed under continuing strikes, while diplomacy has shifted to an Oman-mediated track in Muscat, where Oman has floated separate inbound and outbound shipping lanes and a navigational-fee framework that Washington opposes and Tehran has resisted, and the United States presses Iran to publicly declare the strait open to all traffic. In the days since, the strikes have continued through further US rounds and a renewed wave of Iranian attacks off Oman that set a container ship ablaze and hit a second vessel, and Iranian retaliation has widened to US logistics on Omani soil. Iran has again declared the strait closed until further notice, even as Iran and Oman have agreed to keep the Oman-mediated talks on shipping security going. Into July 13 the fighting has intensified further: US forces have carried out a fourth wave of strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near the strait, both sides now claim control of the waterway, Iran has fired warning shots at merchant ships attempting passage, and transits have fallen to their lowest level in several weeks. Roughly 370 ships remain stranded on either side, sea mines are uncleared, and war-risk insurance is still around 2-4% of hull value. Commercial traffic remains cut off (transit has since been disrupted by fresh attacks on shipping in the strait) while the framework is in dispute. The dated diplomatic timeline tracks where that stands.