When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

1. When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

   The Islamabad Memorandum, a Pakistan-brokered US-Iran framework signed June 17, 2026, was meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz toll-free for 60 days and end the US naval blockade of Iran, but the ceasefire frayed within days and the reopening did not hold. In early July Iran attacked commercial ships in the strait, the United States struck more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed oil sanctions, and President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8. Weeks of escalating strikes followed: US forces hit Iranian coastal cities and missile and drone sites near the strait, sent sea drones into combat against Iranian naval sites, reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports and tightened sanctions on Iran's shipping network, while Iran retaliated against US bases in Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, struck two UAE oil tankers with cruise missiles on July 14, attacked shipping off Oman, and re-declared the strait closed until further notice. Diplomacy runs on an Oman-mediated track in Muscat, where Oman activated a southern shipping corridor inside its own territorial waters that vessels may use on pre-war terms, leaving a northern route through Iranian waters that still needs Tehran's approval. Ships briefly began crossing again along the Omani side under US naval escort, and Washington reported more than 8 million barrels of oil moved through in a single day with military help, but the route is contested: Iran criticised Oman's announcement, insists its memorandum with the United States gives it sole authority to designate approved lanes, and its Revolutionary Guard has warned it may act against ships using routes Tehran has not sanctioned, striking near the corridor to hold its leverage. Iran and Oman have separately asked Washington to accept a joint fee covering navigational safety, pollution protection and emergency response, which US negotiators object to and which Oman would keep voluntary rather than mandatory. By mid-July the campaign was widening: US strikes reached deeper into Iran, including targets in the north, the US Navy disabled a tanker trying to run its blockade, and India ordered its shipping companies to stop deploying Indian seafarers through the strait as other owners were told the same. In the days that followed the picture darkened again rather than easing. The US Navy resumed its blockade in force, redirecting five commercial vessels and disabling one, and traffic through the strait fell to a new low as owners pulled back, leaving the Omani corridor open on paper but largely empty. On July 17 an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan killed two American service members, which US Central Command confirmed, and Washington answered a day later with a fresh round of punitive strikes, carrying the bombing campaign into a second week and reaching Iranian port infrastructure including Chabahar, which Tehran condemned as a war crime. Tehran says the latest strikes killed about 50 people and injured 500. Tehran still says the strait stays shut until the United States accepts its terms and complies with the memorandum, President Trump disputes that it is closed at all, and the International Maritime Organization has warned owners the strait is too dangerous to transit, with roughly 6,000 seafarers still stranded in the Gulf. Passage is cut off again: transit has been disrupted by fresh attacks on shipping in the strait, so commercial traffic has not returned while the June 17 framework is in dispute. Roughly 320 ships remain stranded on either side, sea mines have yet to be cleared, and war-risk insurance remains around 2-4% (versus about 0.25% in peacetime). Prediction markets price "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" at 1% on Polymarket (closes 31 July 2026). The 30-day Escalation Forecast reads 59 (elevated).

2. What are the odds the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon?

   A public prediction market currently prices "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" at 1% implied probability, resolving 31 July 2026. The figure drifts with each escalation and de-escalation.

3. Is the Strait of Hormuz reopening now?

   No. The Islamabad Memorandum (June 17, 2026) was signed and briefly lifted the US naval blockade, but the reopening did not hold: transit has been disrupted by fresh attacks on shipping in the strait, so passage is cut off again while the framework is in dispute. In early July Iran attacked commercial ships in the strait, the United States struck more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed oil sanctions, and President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8. Weeks of escalating strikes followed: US forces hit Iranian coastal cities and missile and drone sites near the strait, sent sea drones into combat against Iranian naval sites, reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports and tightened sanctions on Iran's shipping network, while Iran retaliated against US bases in Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, struck two UAE oil tankers with cruise missiles on July 14, attacked shipping off Oman, and re-declared the strait closed until further notice. Diplomacy runs on an Oman-mediated track in Muscat, where Oman activated a southern shipping corridor inside its own territorial waters that vessels may use on pre-war terms, leaving a northern route through Iranian waters that still needs Tehran's approval. Ships briefly began crossing again along the Omani side under US naval escort, and Washington reported more than 8 million barrels of oil moved through in a single day with military help, but the route is contested: Iran criticised Oman's announcement, insists its memorandum with the United States gives it sole authority to designate approved lanes, and its Revolutionary Guard has warned it may act against ships using routes Tehran has not sanctioned, striking near the corridor to hold its leverage. Iran and Oman have separately asked Washington to accept a joint fee covering navigational safety, pollution protection and emergency response, which US negotiators object to and which Oman would keep voluntary rather than mandatory. By mid-July the campaign was widening: US strikes reached deeper into Iran, including targets in the north, the US Navy disabled a tanker trying to run its blockade, and India ordered its shipping companies to stop deploying Indian seafarers through the strait as other owners were told the same. In the days that followed the picture darkened again rather than easing. The US Navy resumed its blockade in force, redirecting five commercial vessels and disabling one, and traffic through the strait fell to a new low as owners pulled back, leaving the Omani corridor open on paper but largely empty. On July 17 an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan killed two American service members, which US Central Command confirmed, and Washington answered a day later with a fresh round of punitive strikes, carrying the bombing campaign into a second week and reaching Iranian port infrastructure including Chabahar, which Tehran condemned as a war crime. Tehran says the latest strikes killed about 50 people and injured 500. Tehran still says the strait stays shut until the United States accepts its terms and complies with the memorandum, President Trump disputes that it is closed at all, and the International Maritime Organization has warned owners the strait is too dangerous to transit, with roughly 6,000 seafarers still stranded in the Gulf. Only a handful of ships have transited and the largest carriers and insurers have not returned. We track the PortWatch 7-day moving average as the leading signal of sustained throughput.

4. How do prediction markets decide the strait has reopened?

   The dominant Polymarket and Kalshi contracts resolve YES when IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of daily transit calls at or above 60 for the Strait of Hormuz. The average currently reads 16.4 as of 2026-07-12, 43.6 below the threshold.

5. What has to happen for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen?

   The Islamabad Memorandum (signed June 17, 2026, brokered by Pakistan) opened a 60-day toll-free window and briefly lifted the US naval blockade, but the ceasefire frayed within days and collapsed entirely in early July. In early July Iran attacked commercial ships in the strait, the United States struck more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed oil sanctions, and President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8. Weeks of escalating strikes followed: US forces hit Iranian coastal cities and missile and drone sites near the strait, sent sea drones into combat against Iranian naval sites, reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports and tightened sanctions on Iran's shipping network, while Iran retaliated against US bases in Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, struck two UAE oil tankers with cruise missiles on July 14, attacked shipping off Oman, and re-declared the strait closed until further notice. Diplomacy runs on an Oman-mediated track in Muscat, where Oman activated a southern shipping corridor inside its own territorial waters that vessels may use on pre-war terms, leaving a northern route through Iranian waters that still needs Tehran's approval. Ships briefly began crossing again along the Omani side under US naval escort, and Washington reported more than 8 million barrels of oil moved through in a single day with military help, but the route is contested: Iran criticised Oman's announcement, insists its memorandum with the United States gives it sole authority to designate approved lanes, and its Revolutionary Guard has warned it may act against ships using routes Tehran has not sanctioned, striking near the corridor to hold its leverage. Iran and Oman have separately asked Washington to accept a joint fee covering navigational safety, pollution protection and emergency response, which US negotiators object to and which Oman would keep voluntary rather than mandatory. By mid-July the campaign was widening: US strikes reached deeper into Iran, including targets in the north, the US Navy disabled a tanker trying to run its blockade, and India ordered its shipping companies to stop deploying Indian seafarers through the strait as other owners were told the same. In the days that followed the picture darkened again rather than easing. The US Navy resumed its blockade in force, redirecting five commercial vessels and disabling one, and traffic through the strait fell to a new low as owners pulled back, leaving the Omani corridor open on paper but largely empty. On July 17 an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan killed two American service members, which US Central Command confirmed, and Washington answered a day later with a fresh round of punitive strikes, carrying the bombing campaign into a second week and reaching Iranian port infrastructure including Chabahar, which Tehran condemned as a war crime. Tehran says the latest strikes killed about 50 people and injured 500. Tehran still says the strait stays shut until the United States accepts its terms and complies with the memorandum, President Trump disputes that it is closed at all, and the International Maritime Organization has warned owners the strait is too dangerous to transit, with roughly 6,000 seafarers still stranded in the Gulf. A durable halt to US-Iran hostilities is now the first thing that has to hold. Beyond that: sea mine clearance, war-risk insurance falling back below about 4x the peacetime rate, the roughly 320 stranded ships clearing the backlog, and the major container lines resuming regular Hormuz transits. Daily PortWatch transit counts returning toward the roughly 88/day pre-crisis baseline are the lagging confirmation. Full normalization is expected to take months, with mine clearance alone likely to run for weeks.

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