When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

A framework was signed, but it did not hold. The Islamabad Memorandum, signed June 17, 2026 and brokered primarily by Pakistan (with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt as facilitating parties), was meant to open the strait toll-free for 60 days, end the US naval blockade of Iran, and extend the ceasefire by 60 days. Within days the ceasefire frayed, Iran moved to re-assert control over the strait, and commercial traffic stalled again. A signed agreement and a functioning strait are not the same thing; the full sequence since is below.

Physical normalization is a separate, slower process. Mines were laid in the strait during the crisis. US Central Command declared the shipping lanes cleared on August 27, but the Revolutionary Guard has since claimed mine strikes there, and owners and insurers still treat the strait as high risk. Roughly 110 ships are holding position away from berth inside the Gulf rather than under way. Since June 17, traffic has averaged about 8 crossings a day on IMF PortWatch, and about 4 a day over the latest week, against about 85 before the war. War-risk insurance sits around 7.5% of hull versus roughly 0.25% in peacetime, and underwriters reprice slowly once they have sustained confidence that mines and interdiction threats are gone.

The world’s largest container carriers and insurers remain on the sidelines, and the breakdown of the June 17 ceasefire has pushed a durable reopening further out. A full return to normal traffic is expected to take months, not weeks, and now depends first on the hostilities stopping for good. Talks run through mediators and nothing has been signed: Iran set out a seven-day plan on September 25, President Trump rejected it the next day, and on September 30 Tehran said it had received a US answer whose terms aren’t public. On October 4 Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the strait won’t open until its seven conditions are met. On October 7 the sides were still apart: Vice President JD Vance had told Reuters that Iran must cut its enrichment capacity, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Washington must first meet Tehran’s conditions. On October 8 President Trump said the US won’t attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections while the blockade stays in force. Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander, has since said that Washington’s reply to Iran’s proposal is "insufficient" and that Tehran isn’t preparing a further answer, per Anadolu, citing Tasnim, but on October 12 foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran is still reviewing the US reply and will answer through intermediaries, per MarineLink. Iran’s army has since restated its terms: on October 16 its chief, Amir Hatami, said the strait stays closed until the Iranian people’s rights are respected, per IRNA, and army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said it will reopen if the United States leaves the region, without saying whether he meant US forces alone, per CBS News, and ships were still being hit in and around the strait as of October 16, and the container ship GFS Pride and the bulk carrier Cape Dao have both sunk. The market-implied odds and the PortWatch transit average below are the live measures of that progress.

In early July Iran attacked commercial ships in the strait, the United States struck more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed oil sanctions, and President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8. Weeks of escalating strikes followed: US forces hit Iranian coastal cities and missile and drone sites near the strait, sent sea drones into combat against Iranian naval sites, reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports and tightened sanctions on Iran's shipping network, while Iran retaliated against US bases in Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, struck two UAE oil tankers with cruise missiles on July 14, attacked shipping off Oman, and re-declared the strait closed until further notice.

Diplomacy then ran on an Oman-mediated track in Muscat, where Oman activated a southern shipping corridor inside its own territorial waters that vessels could use on pre-war terms, leaving a northern route through Iranian waters that still needed Tehran's approval. Ships briefly began crossing again along the Omani side under US naval escort, and Washington reported more than 8 million barrels of oil moved through in a single day with military help, but the route was contested: Iran criticised Oman's announcement, insisted its memorandum with the United States gave it sole authority to designate approved lanes, and its Revolutionary Guard warned it might act against ships using routes Tehran had not sanctioned, striking near the corridor to hold its leverage. The fee question ran alongside the corridor question. Oman put a regional funding mechanism on the table, modelled on the Strait of Malacca, under which the ships that use the strait would contribute voluntarily towards navigational safety, pollution protection and search and rescue rather than pay a toll to anyone. Washington objected to any charge Iran would control, and a US official said any war deal would carry no fees or tolls for passage at all, though that account rested on one unnamed source.

By mid-July the campaign was widening: US strikes reached deeper into Iran, including targets in the north, the US Navy disabled a tanker trying to run its blockade, and India ordered its shipping companies to stop deploying Indian seafarers through the strait as other owners were told the same. In the days that followed the picture darkened again rather than easing. The US Navy resumed its blockade in force, redirecting five commercial vessels and disabling one, and traffic through the strait fell to a new low as owners pulled back, leaving the Omani corridor open on paper but largely empty.

On July 17 an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan killed two American service members, which US Central Command confirmed, and Washington answered a day later with a fresh round of punitive strikes, carrying the bombing campaign into a second week and reaching Iranian port infrastructure including Chabahar, which Tehran condemned as a war crime. Tehran says the latest strikes killed about 50 people and injured 500. Tehran still says the strait stays shut until the United States accepts its terms and complies with the memorandum, President Trump disputes that it is closed at all, and the International Maritime Organization has warned owners the strait is too dangerous to transit, with roughly 6,000 seafarers still stranded in the Gulf.

By late July the war had spilled beyond the strait. US bombing ran through a thirteenth straight night, reaching coastal military sites and a power substation near the Bushehr nuclear plant, Iran answered with missile attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Jordan, and President Trump threatened to extend the strikes to Iranian bridges and power plants. On July 23 Yemen's Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea with missiles and drones, putting the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint at risk alongside Hormuz; Trump warned of "major military punishment" and said Washington would hold Iran responsible for any further Houthi attacks. Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel on July 23 for the first time since May. The southern corridor stays contested: Iran's Revolutionary Guard said a tanker that tried the route off Oman caught fire after an explosion and two vessels behind it turned back, even as a few supertankers slipped out of the Gulf.

In the last week of July the strikes stopped for three nights. The thirteen-night bombing run ended, US and Iranian forces held fire, and President Trump said he was giving diplomacy space. Oman is mediating: Bloomberg reports Iran and Oman are negotiating a restart of Hormuz shipping, Iran has opened a parallel channel with Saudi Arabia on strait security, and the Jerusalem Post reports, on sourcing it does not name, that the two sides are close to a deal to reopen. Tehran presents the Oman track as unrelated to Washington and still rules out direct talks with the United States, and its Revolutionary Guard says it turned back six ships, so on Iran's account the strait stays shut. Crossings are down about 90% and what traffic remains has shifted almost entirely to the Iranian route. Brent gave back the war premium over those days, falling from above $100 on July 23 to a one-week low in the mid $80s. The second front has not closed: Houthi forces claimed a strike on Saudi oil infrastructure, Red Sea tanker traffic sits at a multi-month low, and some Asia-bound cargoes are routing through Suez instead.

The pause broke on July 28. Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan that evening, aimed at the Muwaffaq Salti air base and at US Central Command's headquarters there. Accounts of the number differ: CNN reported four missiles, and Jordan's military said its air defences intercepted five. Central Command says the attack failed and that every missile was intercepted, and no casualties have been reported. The launch came hours after President Trump met Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House. The same day the diplomatic track stalled in the open: Oman handed Iran a regionally backed plan to manage the strait jointly, funded by voluntary contributions on the model of the Strait of Malacca and leaving Iran without sole control, and Iran rejected it on national-security grounds. Tehran countered with a plan that puts one lane wholly inside Iranian waters and gives Muscat part, but not all, of the other, and says the strait stays shut unless Oman accepts that arrangement. Brent, which had settled around $87, rose again after hours on news of the attack.

The United States answered on July 29, striking sites in Iraq alongside Saudi forces that Central Command says Tehran-backed militias had used to launch recent attacks. Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces say at least 20 of their members were killed and 32 wounded. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy claims it stopped three tankers in the strait after they ignored repeated warnings, an account carried by Iranian state media and not independently confirmed; the strait's traffic remains far below normal either way.

Overnight into July 30 the United States carried the response to Iran itself, in what Central Command called a heavy wave of strikes answering the missile attack on its forces in Jordan. Iranian state media say one strike killed a couple and their two-year-old child in a village on Qeshm Island, near the strait. The same day a drone hit two liquefied natural gas vessels docked at Damietta port on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, the first time the war has touched Egypt; no one has claimed the attack, and Iran's foreign minister denied involvement and warned against what he called false-flag operations. Saudi Arabia announced a Maritime Defense Alliance to protect shipping routes, with 14 countries backing it. Traffic, though, has begun to return: a QatarEnergy LNG tanker exited the strait on July 29, the first Qatari LNG transit in nearly three weeks, with Iranian media saying it had complied with Iran's transit rules, and market analysts estimate throughput has recovered to roughly a third of pre-war levels. Brent briefly topped $93 on the resumed strikes, then eased to around $90 as flows improved. Tehran still says the strait is closed and has vowed to punish what it calls the aggressor.

On August 1 the shipping war returned to the strait itself. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported two separate tanker incidents off Oman near the strait within hours of each other, one of them a vessel carrying natural gas; a tanker was struck by what was described as an unknown projectile. Kuwait said it intercepted Iranian drones aimed at a US base on its territory. Yemen's Houthis said they forced eight Saudi oil tankers to turn back, and several Saudi cargoes are now routing around Africa rather than through the Red Sea. Iran's top security official said continued US military pressure would tighten the closure of the strait and could extend it to other waterways. President Trump threatened further strikes to force the waterway open. The United States military publicly rejected Iran's claim that the strait is shut, saying ships are still transiting and putting the number rerouted at about 30. The physical picture is therefore contested: Tehran calls the strait closed, Washington calls it open, and the independent transit count that would settle it lags by more than a week.

On August 2 the war paused again, this time before the strikes rather than after them. President Trump called off a planned attack on Iran, said it would have been the biggest attack since the Second World War, and credited Gulf leaders, among them Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with asking him for a deal instead. He said the outline of one had been agreed, covering the immediate and complete opening of the strait and an end to what he called Iran's nuclear threat, and that talks would resume on Monday afternoon. Tehran contradicted him within hours and again on August 3. Its foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said Iran is not negotiating with the United States at this time, that its talks are with Oman over a temporary route, and that the strait will in no way return to the state it was in before February 28. Iran's acting defence minister called the stand-down psychological warfare. Iran says the Oman talks are in their final stage and that it wants a lane that is neither the northern nor the southern one, but it also says an agreement with Muscat alone cannot reopen the strait. Nothing has been signed, and Al Jazeera reported no breakthrough. The attacks on shipping did not stop for the pause: the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile off Oman's Musandam peninsula, its engine room damaged and the vessel left not under command, and a second tanker reporting a large explosion in the water close by, with no casualties and nobody named as responsible. Iran's Fars news agency, which is tied to the Revolutionary Guard, said ships were stuck in the northern corridor over the weekend. Brent fell about seven dollars across the two days, from $90 on August 1 to the low $80s, its steepest fall since the fighting resumed in July.

In the first days of August the diplomacy moved, though only on the Iran and Oman side. Tehran says its talks with Muscat are in the final stage of drafting: the two countries have agreed the geographic coordinates of a transit route running partly through Iranian and partly through Omani waters, entry and exit points included, and a joint statement is being drafted. Iran's deputy foreign minister said understanding had been reached on almost all issues, Al Jazeera reports the route would run for roughly two to four months with the existing temporary corridors closing, and President Trump said a deal could be announced within the week. The unresolved part is Washington. Iran says the strait will not open until the United States ends its blockade; the United States has ruled out any arrangement that cements Iranian control of the strait; and reports citing unnamed sources say the draft would require Gulf-bound ships to coordinate with Tehran, which is the kind of control Washington rejects. Shipping industry groups warned against any transit fee regime that might come with the deal. So a deal is close on paper, and each side still needs the other to back down. US Central Command says its blockade of Iran's navy has so far redirected 48 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded two. The second front kept burning: Yemen's Houthis claimed their eighth attack on a Saudi tanker on August 5 and said they struck another with a ballistic missile in the Gulf of Aden a day later. Brent had been falling on the deal hopes and had slipped below $80 on August 4, per our own feed.

On August 8 the United Arab Emirates said Iran had hit one of its ADNOC tankers with a missile inside the strait and accused Tehran of piracy. Nobody was hurt, Egypt condemned the attack, and Iran has not admitted to it. A day later a Liberian-flagged crude tanker, the Mt France C, was struck in the strait with five Indian crew aboard. While ships were being hit, Iran put a price on reopening: it set out a list of conditions and passed them to Washington through foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, with outlets differing on whether there are five or six. The Revolutionary Guard said the strait stays shut until the United States meets every one. Iran's foreign minister added that the deal with Oman, which both sides still call close, does not by itself reopen the waterway, and Tehran says no talks with Washington are under way. So the week ends with a deal near on paper, further off in practice, and tankers still being struck while it is argued over. Brent gave back its fall, trading near $83.55 on August 9 after slipping below $80 five days earlier, per our own feed. The Guardian reported crews who have been stuck in the Gulf since February.

On August 10 and 11 the price of reopening became the whole story, and the two sides told it differently. Iran's foreign ministry said the strait will not reopen while the United States keeps its naval blockade in place, and Reuters reported that Iran's security council had confirmed the closure holds until Washington meets Iran's conditions. Iranian officials set those conditions out publicly for the first time, and reporting puts sanctions relief and war reparations among them. Al Jazeera said both governments arrived at the Hormuz talks with new conditions. Against that, one outlet reported the two sides were nearing a deal, and Pakistan said they were close to some form of agreement, an account carried by Iranian state media; neither is confirmed, and the market read the day the other way, with traders calling the reopening hopes faded. The shooting did not pause for the argument. The Wall Street Journal reported that US forces fired on a Panama-flagged ship that tried to cross the blockade of Iranian ports. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre logged an incident involving a container ship and military forces in the Gulf of Oman on August 11, and a separate report of a vessel hit by a missile in the same waters rests on one Indian outlet and is not confirmed. Four crew were killed in a Houthi attack on a ship at Bab el-Mandeb, keeping the second chokepoint in the war. Traffic stayed near its floor: news counts put six or seven vessels in the strait, and the last complete day IMF PortWatch had published at that point, August 8, held 8 crossings against a pre-crisis 73, the baseline this site used then; it has since been restated to 85. Barrels are still moving around the closure rather than through it, with Bloomberg counting about a dozen ships transferring oil ship to ship outside the strait. Brent rose back above $89 as the deal hopes faded, trading near $88.60 on August 11, about five dollars above where it sat two days earlier, per our own feed. Uniper's chief executive told Reuters gas prices stay high for as long as the strait is shut.

By mid-August the attacks were outrunning the diplomacy. gCaptain reported two more tankers struck on August 14, while the United Arab Emirates expanded a shuttle of escorted oil runs through the strait and Iranian attacks pushed what traffic remains toward the route Tehran controls. On August 15 the UAE said Iran had attacked another of its ADNOC vessels inside the strait, its second such accusation in a week, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre was notified of a projectile striking the hull of a bulk carrier. Washington hardened its line the same day, vowing to cripple Iran's economy, and President Trump said the strait would become US territory "pretty soon" and posted an AI-generated image of himself seizing an Iranian-flagged tanker. Iran's deputy foreign minister answered that the strait "has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian." Underneath the exchange the Oman track kept moving: Bloomberg reported Iran and Oman closing in on a deal on how the strait is run, with the route question that had stalled the talks largely agreed, and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on August 16 that the talks continue but that reopening depends on the United States upholding the memorandum signed in June. A report that a new shipping route has been agreed outright rests on one outlet and is not confirmed. Iran separately claims Qatar is holding three of its missing pilots, an Iranian claim relayed by wires and not independently confirmed. IMF PortWatch's most recently published day at that point was August 9, holding a single crossing. Brent held in the high $80s, near $88.50 on August 16, per our own feed.

The 60-day window for a deal expired on August 18 with nothing signed, and the day it lapsed brought another hull hit. On August 17 President Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it impeded the United States and Iran talks on the strait, and Iran seized a UAE-owned tanker near Qeshm Island. On August 18 the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said a vessel was struck by a projectile as it left the strait; accounts of the casualties differ, with The Times reporting a crew member injured and IranWire reporting one dead. President Trump marked the expiry by labelling a map of the strait "new US territory", which Tehran mocked as delusion and over which an Iranian diplomat warned him. Iran restated its price rather than moving it: Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strait will not reopen until Washington lifts its blockade, ends oil sanctions and releases frozen Iranian assets, an account carried by Reuters, TRT World and Iranian state media alike. The mediation widened even as it stalled, with Qatar saying regional efforts are focused on reopening the waterway and reviving the June memorandum, and the Egyptian and Omani foreign ministers discussing the same. One trade-press report on August 18 put war-risk cover for a transit at around 10% of hull value, a single-source figure. Brent crossed $90 as ceasefire hopes dimmed, trading near $91.20 on August 18, almost nine dollars above where it settled on August 6, per our own feed.

On August 19 and 20 the argument moved from what the two sides will sign to what is actually crossing. President Trump called the naval blockade "extremely effective", said a lot of boats are coming through the strait, dismissed Iranian drones as a nuisance, said harsher sanctions on Iran may follow, and repeated that no talks with Tehran are planned. Reuters, reading the transit data on August 20, found Hormuz shipping unchanged through the stalemate. What traffic remains keeps moving to the Omani side: CNN reported tankers shifting toward the Oman route, and gCaptain reported three Chinese tankers turning back inside the strait on August 19. Iran says it turned one of them back and that it still holds the UAE-owned tanker it seized on August 17, both Iranian accounts relayed by the trade press rather than independently confirmed. The chief executive of Flex LNG told TradeWinds he expects the strait to stay shut through 2026. Axios reported that the United States is quietly running its own tanker corridor through the southern strait: 15 to 20 tankers a night in fixed convoys along the Omani coast under fighter cover, moving about 10 million barrels a day, roughly half the pre-war flow. Other outlets relay the account, but it traces to that single newsroom, so the scale stays unconfirmed. IMF PortWatch has since published through August 16: that week runs between one and eight crossings a day, and its newest day, Sunday August 16, holds one, which is the low day of that series rather than a fresh collapse. Brent kept climbing, from $91.72 at the close on August 19 to $94.50 by midday on August 20, up about 3% in twenty-four hours, per our own feed.

In the days after August 20 the pressure shifted from strikes to economics. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on August 20 that the United States would unveil what he called its toughest sanctions package on August 24, pairing it with the naval blockade as a "one-two punch" and telling allies they are either with Washington or against it; the UAE is reported to be preparing phased trade and financial restrictions on Iran in parallel, and Iran's foreign ministry condemned the coming package as extraterritorial. Iran's central bank governor conceded the squeeze is biting, saying oil exports face restrictions and that counterparts told him revenue had fallen to zero. President Trump went further on the strait itself, saying on August 21 that he views it as "an American territory right now". Tehran answered on two tracks that contradict each other. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of its Supreme National Security Council, said on August 22 that the strait stays closed despite American claims and will not open until Washington corrects its behaviour, warned that any country joining the economic blockade will face consequences, and said that if the blockade persists not a single drop of Persian Gulf oil will move, a statement carried by IRNA and relayed by wires. The same day Iran granted a number of Iraqi oil tankers permission to transit after repeated requests from Baghdad, whose president said the closure had left Iraq unable to pay salaries; that report also originates with IRNA, but Reuters and Al Jazeera carry it and Iraq's president is on the record separately. So Tehran restates total closure while licensing named cargoes through it. The Oman channel reopened a notch: Oman's foreign ministry said foreign minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi and Iran's Abbas Araghchi spoke by phone on August 21 about navigation through the strait and the conditions for resuming dialogue, which is contact about talks rather than talks. The traffic picture also firmed up from outside our own feed. CNN, reading UK Maritime Trade Operations figures on August 22, counted 103 vessels entering and 89 leaving over the week, up 27% on the week before and about 20% of the pre-war average; that is a count of vessels reporting to UKMTO, not IMF PortWatch's AIS-derived daily crossings, and the two cannot be divided against each other. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Navy has helped move more than 15 million barrels of oil and products out of the strait, with 5 million more by pipeline, which matches the scale of the Axios corridor account. The second chokepoint stayed live too: on August 20 the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a tanker boarded by armed men about 136 nautical miles east of Mukalla and diverted toward Somalia, identified in maritime reporting as the sanctioned shadow-fleet product tanker Sibu 1, with the crew's safety unconfirmed. Brent ended the week at $94.39 at the Friday close on August 21, per our own feed.

The week of August 24 brought the sanctions package, another attack and the first Iranian claim of a deal. Washington unveiled the campaign it calls "Economic D-Day" on August 24, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States could still strike targets around the strait. Tehran answered on the water. It blacklisted 45 tankers it says broke its transit rules and threatened them with fines, detention and confiscation of cargo, an escalation Reuters reported and which caught at least one Korean-owned vessel, and it approved a schedule of service fees for the ships it does authorise. The second chokepoint stayed live: Yemen's Houthis attacked a Saudi vessel in the Red Sea on August 24, which the kingdom's national shipping company confirmed. The cost of a crossing is now openly priced. TotalEnergies' chief executive put moving oil through the strait at about $20 million a cargo, and said his company is shipping through it very quietly. On August 25 a projectile struck and disabled a Greek-owned tanker off Oman, logged by the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre and confirmed by Lloyd's List, with the crew reported safe. President Trump said the same day that the US Navy had cleared every mine from the shipping lane and that any Iranian ship laying more would be destroyed at once; Al Jazeera, reporting the claim a day later, noted that owners and insurers still treat the strait as high risk. The International Maritime Organization put the six-month toll at 68 incidents and 20 dead. Traffic went with it, to a three-month low for commodity vessels. Diplomacy moved further in these three days than in the fortnight before them. Oman and Iran floated a joint temporary shipping lane paired with a de-mining project, Pakistan pressed both sides in Tehran and reported progress, and on August 26 Iran's military said it had reached a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman covering the strait. Read that as a claim rather than a settlement. It originates with Iran and its Revolutionary Guard, Oman has said only that its foreign minister hopes a temporary corridor can be announced soon, Israeli outlets reported the same day that gaps remain and that Qatar has joined the mediation, and the Guard's own spokesman restated that the strait stays closed until Washington meets Iran's conditions. So the pattern of the past month held once more: an agreement announced from Tehran, a closure restated in the same breath, and nothing signed. The market took the hopeful half. Brent fell to a two-week low on the reopening headlines, trading at $86.59 late on August 26, down 0.78% over the day, per our own feed. The Jerusalem Post reported, on a single source, that Saudi Arabia is weighing cheaper war-risk cover to draw shipping back.

On August 27 and 28 the mine question and the attacks ran side by side. The head of US Central Command declared the strait's shipping lanes cleared of Iranian sea mines and called it a major milestone; hours later the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre issued an attack warning for the strait near Khasab, with maritime reporting identifying the vessel as the Kuwaiti tanker Al-Salam II, struck by a projectile above the waterline, a small fire put out by the crew and nobody hurt. An Iranian official answered the mine-clearing declaration by saying no vessel crosses the strait without the armed forces' permission, an Iranian account. The diplomacy thickened without settling. Qatar's prime minister flew to Tehran to meet foreign minister Abbas Araghchi about de-escalation and reopening, Iran's top security official said Iran and Oman had agreed to open a temporary shipping corridor, and Tehran said it is preparing a list of conditions for opening the strait, while an Iranian lawmaker told state media the US naval blockade must be lifted before any Iran-Oman arrangement takes effect. Washington said it is not talking to Iran. As with the revenue claim two days earlier, the corridor agreement is an Iranian account that Oman has not confirmed, and nothing is signed. The cost of the closure now shows most clearly in freight: spot earnings for the biggest crude tankers reached a record near $647,000 a day on August 28 as the war squeezed the supply of ships willing to load, per gCaptain and moneycontrol. Transit-data reports counted five commodity vessels through the strait on August 28 against a ten-day average of fifteen. Brent traded near $89.30 late on August 28, up from its two-week low two days earlier, per our own feed.

The lull broke overnight into August 31. US forces struck Revolutionary Guard rocket launchers on Larak Island inside the strait, their first strike on Iranian forces in about a month; a US official said the launchers were being readied to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the shipping lanes, and the Guard said the strike killed and wounded fighters and civilians. Iran answered within hours with missile attacks on US bases in Jordan and on US military assets in the United Arab Emirates, and the Guard claims it shot down a US MQ-9 drone over the strait, an Iranian claim with no US confirmation. The mine question reopened the same morning: the Guard's navy said a supertanker caught fire after striking two sea mines in the strait, days after US Central Command declared the lanes cleared, while Lloyd's List reported the vessel struck by a projectile, so the cause is contested and the mine account is Iranian. President Trump posted an AI-generated video showing Iran's Kharg Island export terminal in ruins; Reuters reported no evidence of any attack there. Brent jumped on the strikes, trading near $91 by midday on August 31, up about 3% in twenty-four hours, per our own feed.

The exchange ran on into September 1. US Central Command rejected the mine story outright, saying no ship has hit a mine in the strait, an Iranian military source in turn denied that Iran had mined it, and Tehran dismissed the Kharg video as fabrication while saying the Larak strikes killed two people. President Trump called the strait "in extremely good shape" and said 30 ships a night are passing through, even as US strikes continued against Iranian missile sites near the strait. The attacks on shipping did not pause either way. On the evening of August 31 two supertankers carrying Saudi oil were struck within minutes of each other as they left the strait off Khasab on the Omani side, per Reuters, Lloyd's List and a UK Maritime Trade Operations advisory: the Bahri-operated Sidr, and the Korean-operated Senegal Prosperity, which UKMTO said was hit by three projectiles with its crew safe. Transit counts stayed in single digits, with five commodity vessels through on August 31. Brent held above $90, trading near $91.96 at midday on September 1, per our own feed.

By September 2 the exchange had a death toll at sea and a longer strike list. Bahri, the Saudi national shipping company, said two of its seafarers, both Filipino nationals, died aboard the Sidr in the August 31 attack, giving no cause, and Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry condemned Iran for targeting the tanker. US Central Command said its forces struck Revolutionary Guard air-defence sites, radars, maritime assets, mine-laying capability and communications sites from midday on September 1; Axios, citing one US official, reports the wave took in two Iranian government-owned tankers under what it called a "tanker for tanker" policy, an account no named official has confirmed. President Trump called the strikes "large and powerful", retaliation for the mine attempt and for eight missiles fired at the US base in Jordan, said the United States now has "almost total control" of the strait, and denied he was trying to force Iran to the table. Iran says a US strike hit a house during a wedding in Sirik county in Hormozgan province; Al Jazeera's own analysis of imagery and munition fragments supports a strike on a residential building, while the death toll of four or five is Iran's figure and Central Command says it never targets civilians. President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a statement from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek that Iran would "immediately take reciprocal action" if the United States returned to its commitments under the June memorandum, and warned that pressure and threats risk derailing diplomacy; Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf repeated that Washington must act first before Iran takes steps to reopen the strait. The Revolutionary Guard claims two more tankers hit mines on September 2 and were "handed over to American agents", an Iranian account that runs against Central Command's standing position that no ship has hit a mine in the strait. Peru broke off diplomatic relations with Iran on September 1, citing the disruption of trade through the strait. Reuters reports Qatari and Emirati LNG cargoes being transferred ship-to-ship outside the strait, a pattern Bloomberg first tracked in mid-August. Kpler's preliminary count put four commodity vessels through the strait on September 1, down from ten the day before and below a ten-day average near thirteen, while US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than 17 million barrels of oil and products crossed on August 31, the most since the war began, a figure Kpler's vessel count for that day does not support. Brent rose to about $94.23, up about 2% on the day, at 13:45 UTC on September 2, per our own feed.

Into September 3 the shooting slowed to statements and the shipping numbers stayed flat. Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry statement on the Sidr also condemned Iranian strikes on Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, and Al Jazeera and CNBC reported Iranian missiles aimed at Kuwait and Bahrain as well as Jordan in the exchange that followed the Larak strike. President Trump asked on Truth Social whether the strait should be renamed the "Trump Strait", then told reporters in the Oval Office he was "just throwing that out", and in an interview taped on September 1 said US forces had "taken out 28 ships" the night before; he warned that further attacks on US forces or shipping would draw a response at a "much harder and higher level". The Institute for the Study of War assessed on September 2 that the US strikes have probably degraded Iran's mine-laying and surveillance capacity near the strait significantly, and read the Guard's mine claims as messaging rather than reports. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority added 11 vessels to its transit blacklist on September 2, taking it to 56 from the 45 listed on August 24, per Reuters and the authority's own website. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines chief executive Jotaro Tamura said on September 3 it is hard to see Hormuz operations resuming in any form by the end of the year, dropping the company's earlier guidance of a restart from October, per gCaptain. Lloyd's List insurance editor David Osler put war-risk claims since the outbreak at around $2 billion across more than 70 claims. Splash247 reported that Jebel Ali, Dubai's main container port, handled about 374,000 TEU in the second quarter, down more than 90% on the year, and fell from tenth to 32nd in the global port rankings. No new UKMTO advisory was issued for September 2 or 3 and no talks were reported. Brent closed near $95.63 on September 2, touched $97.61 during September 3 and traded near $95.50 at 19:30 UTC, per our own feed.

From the afternoon of September 3 the exchange resumed. Iran's regular army said it fired missiles and drones at Ahmad al-Jaber air base in Kuwait and al-Minhad air base in the UAE; Kuwait said its air defences intercepted the attack, Bahrain declared an alert, and a US official said no base was hit, per AFP and Arab News. US Central Command said 87 vessels have been turned back under the blockade of Iranian ports, with three disabled and two boarded, and on September 4 it published video of strikes on Iranian targets it said included two ships, giving no names, per USNI News. Vice President JD Vance said "everything is on the table" to stop Iran firing on shipping and would not give a timeline for the end of the conflict, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put the flow through the strait at "at least 10 million barrels a day", a figure Kpler's vessel counts do not support. Kpler counted four commodity vessels through on September 4, down from nine the day before and against a ten-day average near fifteen, per gCaptain and Reuters. UK Maritime Trade Operations said on September 5 that AIS-detected transits are running about 90% below pre-conflict levels, that tankers make up 46% of the movements, and that it has logged 27 projectile strikes since July 6, 21 of them on the southern route through Omani waters. Bloomberg reports Iraq's state tanker company is trying to hire tankers to run the strait, with cabinet approval; South Korea is weighing sending the support ship Soyang and P-8A patrol aircraft to a US, British and French mission, though Seoul says nothing is decided. At the other end of the Arabian Peninsula, fighting between the Houthis and Yemeni government forces near the Bab al-Mandab strait killed at least 81 people on September 3, rising to 129 by an AFP tally the next day. On the morning of September 5 Iranian state television said four US missiles struck a tanker about six miles off Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal, with the crew evacuated and no casualties; the report named no ship, Central Command declined to comment, and no independent desk had confirmed it by midday. Brent settled at $96.28 on September 4, up about 6% on the week from $90.49 on August 31, per our own feed.

The tanker war escalated over the weekend. On September 5 the Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and a destroyer near the strait; US Central Command said both ships evaded them with no one hurt, while the Guard claimed both were damaged. Within about 24 hours US forces struck three Iranian crude tankers: the Downy off Kharg Island and the Stark 1 near Jask, both described as permanently disabled, and the unladen Kylo in the Gulf of Oman, destroyed after its crew was told to abandon ship, with no casualties reported. Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper said "if you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost, taking out three of yours", and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote that the United States would "destroy (and sink)" Iranian tankers if Iran fired on US ships, per NBC, CNN and Al Jazeera. The Guard says it targeted three tankers on an unauthorised route and three US-linked vessels, an Iranian account. UKMTO logged a cargo ship hit by a projectile in the southern corridor on the evening of September 5, no casualties, and counted 11 transits that day. On September 6 Iran claimed a strike on an unmanned US vessel, which Central Command spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins called "a total lie", per AP. Kpler's ten-day average fell to ten transits a day, the lowest since May, with two vessels through on September 5 and six on September 6, most on the Iranian-managed route, and no supertanker out since September 2, per gCaptain. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran will declare a restricted zone starting at the US blockade line, put any ship entering it on a sanctions list, and sign a new corridor through Iranian and Omani waters under Iranian management "in the coming days"; foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei said the Oman talks are in their final stage and the route would be registered with the IMO, per Bloomberg and The National. Oman has not commented and nothing is signed. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the era of proportionate responses is over and that US oil and gas companies are targets, and Baqaei warned South Korea that any Gulf deployment would carry "serious consequences". US futures did not trade on Labor Day, September 7, so this site's Brent quote sat at Friday's $96.28 settle; Bloomberg put ICE Brent as high as $97.93 during the day before it slipped to about $96.15 on the Oman deal report.

Into September 8 the war reached Saudi energy sites and the first Qatari gas cargo in weeks left the Gulf. Early on September 8 Yemen's Houthis hit energy sites and utilities in Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran, wounding at least 73 civilians and starting fires; the Saudi energy ministry said operations at several sites were halted for a time and Aramco's Jazan facilities were struck, per AP, CNN and The National. The Qatari LNG tanker Al Marrouna, loaded in early August, was in the Gulf of Oman on September 8 bound for Pakistan's Port Qasim, the first Qatari cargo out of the strait since one of its tankers was attacked in late July, per Bloomberg ship tracking; Gulf LNG exports remain well below the pre-war rate of about three cargoes a day and Qatar has extended force majeure on deliveries through October. US Central Command said that as of September 7 it had turned back 94 vessels under the blockade of Iranian ports, disabled three and boarded two. The International Maritime Organization put the toll at 19 seafarers killed, about 6,000 still stranded aboard ships in the Gulf and more than 70 attacks on shipping since February 28. President Trump wrote that oil prices "will drop precipitously" and petrol would fall below two dollars a gallon "when we WIN the war with Iran", and Iran's acting defence minister said Iranian forces can target the US warships enforcing the blockade, an Iranian statement. Brent traded near $98.60 at midday on September 8, up about 2.4% on Friday's settle and its highest in more than a month, per our own feed.

The sharpest exchange of the war ran from September 8 into September 9. US Central Command said the Revolutionary Guard had twice fired ballistic missiles at a US Navy warship near the strait, which evaded both, and that US forces answered on September 8 by destroying five more Iranian oil tankers, the Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon 1 and Riesco in the Gulf of Oman and the Derya near Kharg Island, after ordering their crews off, per NPR, the BBC, NBC, CBS and Al Jazeera. Iran struck back on September 9. Jordan's military said it engaged 20 ballistic missiles aimed at the Azraq air base, which hosts US forces, and destroyed 18, with the other two falling in empty ground and no one hurt; the Guard claims it destroyed hangars used by US jets. The Guard also says it hit two US vessels, eight oil tankers and ten ships it calls non-compliant with its transit rules, an Iranian account Washington rejects: a US official told CNBC that no American vessel was struck. What is confirmed is narrower. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported several merchant ships in the Gulf hit by disabling fire overnight, and a drone struck the Panama-flagged tanker New Andros, loaded with about 2 million barrels of Iraqi fuel oil, in Iraqi waters that morning; Iraq's oil ministry said the hull damage was minor, the 22 crew were unhurt and nothing leaked, and no one has said who launched it. Iran also says it captured a US unmanned underwater vessel near the strait, a claim carried by the Washington Post, the South China Morning Post and Iranian state media and not confirmed by Washington. The Guard went ahead with the restricted zone its security council threatened on September 6, adding parts of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, running out from Chabahar, to a prohibited area and warning that any ship entering it without coordination will face its sanctions, with the coordinates still to come, per Reuters and Al Jazeera. It also told the crews of oil tankers in Bahraini and Kuwaiti waters to evacuate ahead of what it called imminent attacks. Commercial traffic thinned again: Reuters reports Hormuz shipping running below its ten-day average, with six vessels through on September 8 against nine the day before. Brent traded near $100.74 at midday on September 9, up about 2.5% on the day and back above $100 for the first time since late July, and settled at $101.21, per our own feed.

On September 10 the second chokepoint moved closer to the fighting. Yemen's Houthis seized the Red Sea port city of Mocha, per Reuters citing Yemeni government military sources, bringing their front line nearer the Bab el-Mandeb strait. President Trump warned Tehran over activity at Pickaxe Mountain, an underground site near Natanz, per CNBC; it was a warning, not a strike. Iran suspended a 10% charge on the freight fees of foreign vessels carrying oil, gas and liquid petroleum products to and from Iran until the government publishes a list of the products it covers, per the semi-official Fars news agency as relayed by Reuters. That charge falls on ships serving Iran's own trade and is not a toll for crossing the strait. The International Energy Agency said the loss of Gulf LNG is pushing Europe and Asia to burn more coal. Reuters' preliminary ship-tracking count put seven commodity vessels through the strait on September 9, down from twelve on September 8, a day its first count had put at six, against a ten-day average of fourteen, and no LNG tanker left. Brent climbed through the day and traded near $105 at 13:00 UTC on September 10, up about 4% on the day, per our own feed.

On the evening of September 10 the attacks returned to the Omani side of the strait, and on September 11 the Houthis took the Yemeni side of the second chokepoint. At about 19:10 UTC the master of a nearby vessel told the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre that four projectiles had hit two unidentified ships about four nautical miles off Khasab; one caught fire and the state of the other was unknown, per The Maritime Executive and Al Jazeera. Nobody claimed the attack. A day after taking Mocha, Yemen's Houthis reached Perim Island on September 11 when government forces withdrew. The island splits the Bab el-Mandeb into two shipping lanes, and its capture leaves the Houthis holding Yemen's Red Sea coast along the strait, per NPR, NBC, Euronews and Time. A Houthi statement said the waterway stays safe for all shipping except Saudi vessels and that strikes on Saudi targets will go on, and the head of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, flew to Saudi Arabia overnight, per Al-Monitor. The diplomacy moved as well. Iran's foreign ministry said Oman will host a meeting on Monday, September 14, of Iran, Iraq and the other Gulf states on the strait, with foreign minister Abbas Araghchi attending, per AFP. Bloomberg and the Financial Times report that the six Gulf Cooperation Council states are weighing talks on a temporary shipping arrangement, which would be their first meeting with Iran since the war began; so far only Iran has announced the date. In New Delhi, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi pressed President Masoud Pezeshkian on freedom of navigation and the safety of seafarers, and at the Pentagon's ceremony for the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said "We control the strait. We will finish this fight." Earnings for supertankers on the benchmark Middle East to China route reached a record of nearly $800,000 a day, per Bloomberg as carried by gCaptain, up from about $647,000 on August 28. Reuters' preliminary ship-tracking count put seven vessels through the strait on September 10 and raised its figure for September 9 to eleven from the seven it first reported, against a ten-day average of fifteen. Brent settled at $107.63 on September 10, rose above $109 early on September 11 and fell back to near $105 at 19:40 UTC, down about 2% on the day, per our own feed.

The attack that mattered most on September 11 was not in the strait at all. Drones launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina areas overnight, causing injuries and damaging the equipment that runs the line, and Saudi Arabia shut it as a precaution, per Al Jazeera and CNN. The 1,200km pipeline had been carrying 4 to 5 million barrels a day from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, close to all of the Saudi crude rerouted away from Hormuz since the closure, and it is the largest single way around the strait. No restart was announced that week. Saudi Arabia blamed drones originating from Iraq and said it would hold off retaliating at the Iraqi prime minister's request; no group claimed the attack, and on September 12 Iraq dismissed its Maysan province operations commander and ordered an investigation. The diplomacy narrowed the same weekend. Bahrain said on September 12 that it would not take part in the Oman meeting, and Reuters, citing an Iranian official briefing Tasnim, reported that no signed agreement was expected there. Kpler counted seven transits on September 11 against a ten-day average of fifteen, per Reuters as carried by Al-Monitor, and revised its September 10 figure up to eleven; treat the newest day as a floor, since these counts have been raised the following day three times this month. Brent settled at $104.61 on September 11 after touching $110.19 during the session, about 2.8% below the September 10 settle.

On September 13 a merchant ship was hit inside the strait and a seafarer was killed. At about 01:30 UTC a projectile struck an Iranian commercial vessel off Shib Deraz on Qeshm island, near Hengam and roughly 14 miles from Bandar Abbas; fire broke out and local authorities took the crew off, per AFP, AP and Reuters citing Iranian state media. One seafarer, named as Jamshid Rajabi, was killed. The governor of Qeshm put the injured at three and IRNA at four. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre confirmed a vessel hit by an unknown projectile and told ships to transit with caution. No source has published the vessel's name or IMO number, Iranian state media included, and IRNA says neither the projectile nor those responsible has been identified: the governor blamed the United States, which has not commented. CNN reported a second ship hit late on September 12. AFP, AP, Reuters and the Washington Post describe a single vessel in the Qeshm attack, but another ship was hit off Oman that night, as set out below. Ahead of the meeting Oman had set for Salalah on September 14, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said its only agenda was the new maritime route, that Iran would hand over maps and a draft joint statement it means to file with the International Maritime Organization, and that the understanding Iran reached with Oman on August 26, a temporary seven-mile corridor entering through Iranian waters and leaving partly through Omani waters, by no means signifies that the strait reopens.

The Salalah meeting never happened. Oman News Agency announced on September 13 that the regional meeting set for Monday had been put off to a later date, and foreign minister Badr Albusaidi said on X that the delay served the interests of consensus and that Oman stays determined to promote dialogue. No new date has been given: an aggregator headline claiming Oman had revealed one is wrong, and Oman News Agency, Bloomberg, CNN, The National, Al Jazeera and Gulf News all say no date was set. Three explanations are in circulation and none has prevailed. Oman cited consensus. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said on September 14 that Saudi Arabia had asked for the postponement, called the Yemen explanation a false pretext and said Iran has no relation to events there. Al Jazeera's own analysis reports instead that Saudi Arabia sought changes to the wording of the Iran-Oman navigation framework and the Gulf states could not agree. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE had been expected; Bahrain had already refused, calling attendance appeasement. The meeting was to cover temporary entry and exit lanes through Iranian and Omani waters, possibly paid for by voluntary tolls for navigation, environmental protection and search and rescue, per Al Jazeera.

The rest of September 14 hardened the picture. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority took its transit blacklist to 77 vessels from the 56 it listed on September 2, adding about twenty, among them Kuwaiti, Bahri and ONEX tonnage, five ships hit in Iranian attacks and one destroyed by US forces this month; listed ships face fines, detention or confiscation, and any vessel that transfers cargo to one or trades with it joins the list, per Reuters and Seatrade Maritime. The Revolutionary Guard said it shot down an advanced MQ-1 drone over the strait with a new air defence system, a claim carried by IRNA, Tasnim and Press TV, which called it another one; Washington has neither confirmed a loss nor denied it, and nobody has verified it independently. Yemen's Houthis took the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands, completing their hold on the Bab el-Mandeb after Mocha and Perim, fired drones and missiles at Saudi military targets, and said seven people died in a Saudi strike on a prison. Satellite imagery released on September 13 showed a pumping station southeast of Madinah burned out and crude spread across the desert beyond its perimeter; Saudi Arabia has announced no restart for the East-West pipeline and nobody has claimed the attack, while unnamed sources told CNBC repairs could run to six weeks. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the seven-day average of oil moving through the strait is now just under 11 million barrels a day and still rising, a government estimate that ship trackers do not match: traders watching cargo activity put the real figure nearer 6 to 8 million against a pre-war 15 million. Reuters, on preliminary Kpler data, counted transits back in single digits over the weekend against a ten-day average of fourteen. Brent settled Friday at $104.61 and traded at $109.19 on Monday afternoon after touching $109.78, up about 4.4% on the session.

By September 15 the weekend's worst attack had a name, and it wasn't a new one. The ship hit off Oman was the El Gaia, a Panama-flagged product tanker struck at about 23:00 UTC on September 12 roughly eight nautical miles off Limah, per the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre; fire broke out and the crew were taken off. India's foreign ministry said 13 of the 14 Indian crew were rescued and one is missing, while Oman's Maritime Security Centre said on September 15 that 23 people were evacuated, two are missing and the ship is under tow to an Omani port. Who hit it is disputed. The Revolutionary Guard said on September 14 that the El Gaia struck mines on a route Iran forbids; US Central Command called that false and said Iran had hit the ship with a missile in August and again with a drone at the weekend. Neither account has been independently confirmed. A separate vessel was struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on September 14 with no damage reported, per a UKMTO notice issued the next day. TradeWinds, citing maritime security sources, reports that Iran hit a historic former Royal Mail passenger ship, which may be the same incident; nobody has named the vessel. Axios, citing US officials, reports that a US drone destroyed two Revolutionary Guard boats trying to seize a US Navy unmanned vessel, and Tasnim says a US drone struck two Iranian fishing boats near Kargan, leaving fishermen missing; the two accounts may describe one event. The Guard also claims further MQ-1 drone shootdowns over the strait, which Mehr counts as the fourth, and Washington has neither confirmed nor denied a loss. Yemen's Houthis fired missiles and drones at the Khamis Mushait air base, and the Saudi-led coalition says 13 people were hurt in Houthi attacks on three Saudi cities. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, ruled out talks with Washington until Iran's conditions are met, per The National. The East-West pipeline is still shut, and estimates for the repair run from three to six weeks. Reuters, on preliminary Kpler data, counted four transits on September 14 against ten the day before, and IMF PortWatch's figures for the week to September 13, published on September 15, run between two and eight crossings a day. Brent eased to about $106.86 at 14:00 UTC on September 15, down about 1.5% over twenty-four hours, per our own feed.

On September 16 Fox News, citing two sources, reported that Iran had hit a US-contracted vessel carrying American personnel near the strait earlier in the week. Four drones and at least one missile were fired at it and one weapon struck, causing minor injuries, mostly smoke inhalation, and the injured were taken to an unnamed Gulf country for treatment. Nobody has named the ship, its flag or where exactly it was hit, and US Central Command declined to comment, so the account rests on those sources, per gCaptain and The Maritime Executive. The Revolutionary Guard said it shot down US MQ-9 drones over Qeshm island on September 16 and again on September 17, calling the second the 53rd it has downed; Washington has not confirmed either loss. Traffic fell further. Reuters, on Kpler data carried by MarineLink, counted three ships through the strait on September 16, an empty dry bulk carrier, an empty product tanker and a Panamax tanker, down from twelve the day before and against a ten-day average of about seventeen. Because the East-West pipeline is still shut with no restart date, Saudi Aramco has sold about 20 million barrels to Chinese and other East Asian refiners for September and October, handed over ship to ship in the Gulf of Oman, per Bloomberg as carried by gCaptain. The oil still has to cross the strait to get there, but the buyers take it beyond the chokepoint. The International Maritime Organization said on September 17 that it has verified 80 attacks on shipping in and around the strait since February 28, which have killed at least 20 seafarers. Diplomacy moved on the second chokepoint instead. Reuters reports that US officials met a Houthi delegation at the US embassy in Muscat over the weekend, in talks Oman helped arrange, and that the Houthis said they won't attack US ships or other commercial shipping, except vessels under the Saudi flag. Brent traded near $104.62 at 17:40 UTC on September 17, down about 1% over twenty-four hours, per our own feed.

By September 20 the two sides were describing the same waterway in incompatible terms. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said on September 17 that it had struck and detained the Togo-flagged tanker Trend after it tried to cross without Iranian permission, and that the ship caught fire; the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre logged an incident about 16 nautical miles north-east of Khasab, did not name the vessel and said the crew were safe, and a tanker was reported hit by an unidentified projectile the next day. Whether those are one incident or two has not been established, and nothing in the Iranian account has been independently confirmed, per The Hill, Anadolu, Malay Mail and the Washington Times. Then on September 19 the head of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, said US forces had supported the movement of more than a billion barrels of crude out of the strait in about two months, across more than 2,000 escorted commercial transits, that the past fortnight's combined crude, cargo and LNG volume was the highest in six months, that the main routes had been cleared of mines and that Iran's own exports were at zero, per The Hill, Fortune, Middle East Eye and Arab News. Iran's military spokesman dismissed the claim, per Mehr. Read the figure for what it is: barrels moved under escort over two months, not a daily crossing count, so it does not settle how many ships are going through. Independent trackers still put traffic far below pre-war levels, and our own IMF PortWatch series records 8 crossings on September 13 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85. Reuters, on preliminary Kpler data, has since revised September 16 to four crossings against a ten-day average of eighteen, from the three and about seventeen reported at the time. On September 20 Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the strait stays shut until Washington meets commitments Tehran says it made in a June memorandum: lifting the blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing frozen assets and ending military operations. That came through Fars and was carried by Al Arabiya, Anadolu, NDTV Profit and Hindustan Times. President Pezeshkian was due to travel to the United States for the UN General Assembly. Brent traded at $103.87 at 14:06 UTC on September 20, down about 0.2% over twenty-four hours, per our own feed, with futures closed for the weekend.

On September 21 the attacks went on and traffic almost stopped. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre logged two incidents in the strait that day: an inbound crude tanker hit by an unknown projectile, with two crew slightly hurt and the ship still under way, and hours later an outbound LPG carrier hit by debris from unknown projectiles, with its crew safe, per Al Arabiya, gCaptain and AP. Nobody has claimed either attack. Reuters, on preliminary Kpler data, counted two commodity vessels through on September 21, down from ten the day before. Then on September 22 a senior Iranian official told Reuters and Kyodo that Iran could reopen the strait within seven days if the United States eased its military pressure and lifted the blockade of Iranian ports, and that Iran's delegation at the UN General Assembly in New York had full authority to revive diplomacy. Within hours the Fars news agency called the report untrue, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf repeated that the strait stays shut until Washington meets Iran's conditions, so the offer stands as one official's account that Tehran has not owned. Italy's foreign minister Antonio Tajani said after meeting Abbas Araghchi in New York that they had discussed negotiations to reopen the strait. The same day Reuters and Bloomberg, citing industry sources, reported that Saudi Arabia had restarted the East-West pipeline at a low pumping rate, aiming for about 4 million barrels a day. Saudi Aramco and the energy ministry have not confirmed it and no flow figure has been published, so this site still counts the line as shut. In Yemen, The Guardian counts up to 169 people killed in three days of fighting between the Houthis and government forces for the heights above the Red Sea coast. Brent fell to about $97.65 at 10:51 UTC on September 22 as the reopening report spread, its lowest since early September, then recovered to about $100.10 by 17:00 UTC, per our own feed.

On September 23 another seafarer was killed. At about 06:30 UTC the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged bulk carrier Cape Dao, bound from Mina Saqr in the UAE for India with 28 crew, was hit twice by unknown projectiles about 2.5 nautical miles off Oman's Musandam peninsula, and a fire in the engine room left it adrift. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre first reported two casualties; Indian and Omani authorities later said one Indian crew member, a 26-year-old wiper, had died and that the Royal Navy of Oman took the other 27 off the ship, per gCaptain, Anadolu and The Times of Israel. Neither Iran nor the United States has claimed the attack, though the Revolutionary Guard posted video saying the ship had used an unauthorized and unsafe route, per CBS News. In New York the two governments were talking, if not face to face. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi exchanged messages through Qatari and Omani mediators on the sidelines of the General Assembly, the first indirect contacts since the July ceasefire collapsed, per Al Jazeera and gCaptain. Iranian state media said the meeting was held to convey Iran's conditions, chiefly on reopening the strait, and Witkoff called it a round of discussions he hoped would prove constructive. That came a day after President Trump told the Assembly he would decide whether to strike a deal or "annihilate" the Islamic Republic, per CBS News. When President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke on September 23 the US delegation walked out, and he said Iran would not bend to US pressure but would negotiate, defending its restrictions on the strait as resistance to a US effort to use the sea lane to widen the war, per Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya and Euronews. On September 24 Reuters, citing two Iranian sources, two regional officials and two Western diplomats, reported that negotiators are exploring a phased deal in which Iran would reopen the strait and Washington would lift its blockade, with Tehran willing to move its demand for transit fees into a side attachment; those sources said neither side wants to give up its leverage first, and the White House and State Department did not respond. Tehran's public line didn't move. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, told state television that the strait stays closed until Iran's conditions are met, among them an end to the blockade and to the war on all fronts and the release of frozen assets, and said "there is no staging or step-by-step process", per AnewZ and CBS News. The same day about 80 countries, in a joint statement read out at the UN by Bahrain's foreign minister, demanded that the strait reopen and condemned attacks by Iran and the Houthis, per Reuters. Saudi Arabia still hasn't confirmed the reported East-West pipeline restart, which Reuters sources describe as running at reduced rates, and because no flow figure has been published this site still counts the line as shut. Reuters counted ten commodity vessels through the strait on September 23, up from seven the day before and below a ten-day average of about seventeen, per MarineLink. Brent climbed from about $98 early on September 23 to about $107 at 15:20 UTC on September 24, per our own feed, and was near $106.40 at 17:40 UTC after the Reuters report.

On September 25 Iran put its terms on the record. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had given the United States a "concrete" seven-day plan: over those seven days Washington would release about $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, lift oil sanctions and end its blockade of Iranian ports, fighting would stop on every front, Lebanon included, and on the seventh day Iran would reopen the strait and talks on a final deal would begin, per AP, Sky News, the BBC, Al Jazeera and Iran's Press TV. "The choice now rests with the United States," he said. Because the foreign minister made it in public, this is a stronger signal than the September 22 account from an unnamed official that Tehran had disowned. Within hours The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed US officials, reported that President Trump had ruled the plan out and is said to expect US strikes to resume after the midterm elections, per France 24 and The Guardian. That night a US official told Al Jazeera only that Washington is in a strong position and in no hurry. Late on September 25 Trump posted a map that labels the waterway "Trump Strait". What Iran would give on its nuclear programme is unsettled: President Pezeshkian told CBS News that Iran would allow nuclear inspectors, while Indian outlets including Moneycontrol and News18 report that Tehran rules out nuclear concessions even if a deal on the strait goes through. The traffic count is contested again, as it was in early August. A US official said about 60 ships passed through the strait on September 24, carrying the most crude in a day since early July, per Arab News, The Times of Israel and Middle East Eye, while Reuters, on Kpler data, counted nine commodity vessels that day. Nobody has reconciled the two figures, and until someone does neither settles how much is moving. Saudi Arabia still hasn't confirmed the reported East-West pipeline restart, so this site still counts the line as shut. Brent ended the week near $104.30, down about $2.40 in Friday's session, per our own feed, with futures closed for the weekend.

On September 26 Trump confirmed the rejection himself. "I reject their proposal," he told reporters, saying Iran wants a deal only "because they are losing so badly" and that its terms "would not be acceptable", per NBC News, Reuters, NPR and Al Jazeera. Tehran didn't move. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran won't soften its conditions and is still waiting for a formal US answer through mediators, per Bloomberg and the BBC, and President Pezeshkian said Iran has no trust in the American side, per Al Jazeera. Trump told Axios he expects talks to resume this week and called new strikes "possible", per CBS News. Also on September 26, the Saudi-led coalition said its air defences intercepted two drones and a ballistic missile that Yemen's Houthis fired at Riyadh and Khamis Mushait, per Bloomberg. On September 27 the Revolutionary Guard said it had captured a second US underwater drone in the strait; US Central Command said all its drones are accounted for and called the claim "clearly desperate", per Euronews and ANI. The Guard-linked Fars news agency said Iranian forces fired warning shots at 19 ships over two nights, 12 on September 26 and 7 on September 27, for using routes Tehran hasn't approved, per the Tehran Times and Iran International. Fars named none of the ships, and no one else has confirmed the account. Late on September 27 NBC News, citing three unnamed US officials, reported that an Iranian cruise missile had hit a ship carrying US Marines in the strait on September 14, injuring eight of them, none seriously. The attack wasn't disclosed at the time, and so far the account rests on those unnamed officials; other outlets have only repeated it. Some gas is moving again: more Qatar-linked LNG tankers crossed the strait in the week to September 28, after none were visible in August, per MarineLink on LSEG and Kpler data. Brent was near $106.50 at 13:50 UTC on September 28, up about 2% on the day, per our own feed.

On September 29 word of a new attack on shipping came in while Qatar carried Iran's ideas to Washington. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said it had delayed, third-party reports that a vessel crossing the strait was hit by an unknown projectile on the evening of September 28; a fire broke out and was put out, no one was hurt, and the ship carried on, per AzerNews. TradeWinds reported a VLCC ablaze after a new strike in the strait, and Lloyd's List reported a Kuwait Oil Tanker Company tanker struck there. Fars, cited by Azerbaijan's APA, said a ship on the southern route north of Khasab was hit by a projectile and caught fire, and Yeni Safak also reported a vessel on fire after a projectile strike. Later that day The Maritime Executive named the ship as the Al Funtas, a Kuwait Oil Tankers supertanker that had been crossing with its tracker switched off, which is why the report came in late; its crew put the fire out and it sailed on. Iran has also warned charterers. On September 28 its Persian Gulf Strait Authority said some charterers are forcing ships onto routes it hasn't approved, and warned that they'll be added to its non-compliant list with all their ships' passage through the strait restricted, per The Maritime Executive and TradeWinds; The Maritime Executive puts the list at 81 ships as of the week before. The talks haven't closed, though. Speaking to Iranian reporters in New York late on September 28, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Qatari mediators would take Washington new ideas on how Iran's conditions could be met, and that he hoped a final US answer would reach Tehran by September 29, per Anadolu and France 24. None had been reported by 19:30 UTC, and Qatar's foreign ministry said mediators were still carrying messages between the two sides. Brent was near $102.90 at 13:30 UTC on September 29, down from about $106.50 a day earlier, per our own feed.

On September 30 the tanker war and the talks both moved. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said three ships had been hit by unknown projectiles in the strait on Tuesday, September 29, among them a crude oil tanker and an LNG tanker, in reports that reached it late; it didn't say who fired them, per Anadolu, Iran International, CBS News and Al Jazeera. Hours later Iran said the US answer it had been waiting for had arrived. Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said foreign minister Abbas Araghchi presented the American proposal to President Pezeshkian at that day's cabinet meeting, per CBS News. Its terms haven't been published, and Reuters reports that the two sides disagree over the order in which the steps would be taken. The Revolutionary Guard's spokesman said the war ends only if Washington admits defeat and US forces leave the region, per CBS News. On volume, Kpler data reported by CNBC that day put crude exports through the strait near pre-war levels, carried by tankers crossing with their AIS transponders off. That measures barrels, not crossings: vessel counts, from PortWatch and from Kpler's crossing tallies, stay far below pre-war. Brent was near $103.80 at 15:10 UTC on September 30, little changed on the day, per our own feed.

On October 1 and 2 the tanker attacks went on, and Iran tied the earlier ones to its blacklist. On the evening of October 1 the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said a tanker crossing the strait had been struck by an unknown projectile and caught fire, per Anadolu, The Times of Israel and Arab News; Anadolu placed it near Oman, and RBC-Ukraine and NV reported the crew safe. TradeWinds reported a fire burning on a Kuwait Oil Tanker Company VLCC after the attack, and Splash247 called it the company's second VLCC strike in four days. Oil & Gas Middle East, citing UKMTO, put the count at four tankers hit. Splash247 also reported a separate projectile attack at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu that briefly disrupted loading; no other outlet in our feed has reported it yet. The September 29 attacks now carry more detail, though not all of it agrees. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks said all three were Liberian-flagged oil tankers crossing with their AIS transponders off, per Reuters and MarineLink, while UKMTO had described one of them as an LNG tanker. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said three Emirati tankers hit in the strait in recent days were already on its non-compliance list, per the Iranian state outlets Mehr, Tasnim and PressTV; as carried, the statement doesn't say who fired at them. Washington added pressure on two fronts. On October 1 the United States sanctioned Iran's rail system, major industrial companies and a Russia-linked shadow banking network, per gCaptain, and Al Jazeera reported that the Roosevelt carrier strike group and 2,000 Marines are being sent to the Middle East as part of a wider buildup around Iran. Tehran said reopening the strait depends on US guarantees that the war will end, per Anadolu. On volume, The Guardian reported on October 1 that crude exports through the strait have largely returned to pre-war levels, while flows of refined products such as diesel are still constrained.

On October 2 and 3 two more tankers were hit, and a Guard-linked outlet credited the week's strikes to the Revolutionary Guard. On Friday, October 2, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said a tanker leaving the strait had been hit by an unknown projectile, which caused a small fire and a blackout; the crew put the fire out and the ship sailed on, per gCaptain and AFP as carried by Malay Mail. The security firm Ambrey described it as a Panama-flagged crude oil tanker about 5.3 nautical miles off Oman, per The Maritime Executive. UKMTO then reported a second crude oil tanker struck by an unknown projectile east of Oman, with the crew safe. AFP dates that strike to October 2 as well, while CNBC dates the report to Saturday, October 3, and puts it four nautical miles east of Oman. The supertanker set on fire on October 1 now has a name: the Kazimah III, of Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, per The Maritime Executive. India's embassy in Oman said on October 2 that five Indian crew had been brought ashore from it with Omani help, per The Times of India. The counts differ with who is counting. gCaptain put it at at least six vessels hit since Sunday, September 27, and The Maritime Executive at six in a week, with UKMTO's tally of incidents tied to the conflict at 110. On October 3 the Guard-linked Fars news agency said the Revolutionary Guard's navy had targeted seven "violating" tankers in five days, more than one a day, per Xinhua as carried by Hellenic Shipping News and per Kurdistan24. The Xinhua account names the Kuwaiti tankers Al Funtas and Kazimah III and the Emirati tankers Sinbad, Mersin Prosperity and Al Ruwais. Fars cited ship-tracking data, and neither account quotes a Guard statement claiming the strikes. The Maritime Executive reports that the two Kuwaiti tankers weren't on Iran's non-compliance list, which stood at 82 ships on October 2. Oil still moved. Iraq's state tanker company said it had arranged a supertanker to carry 2 million barrels of crude through and beyond the strait, the first time in decades it has shipped Iraq's oil itself, per Bloomberg as carried by gCaptain and per The National, in reports dated October 3 and 4. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the US blockade "ironclad", per The Times of Israel on October 3.

On October 4 Iran restated its price for reopening and another tanker was hit. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, said the strait won't open until Iran's seven conditions, which he said rest on the June Islamabad Memorandum, are met, and that Iran won't set its national security by "tweets from American officials", per the Iranian outlets IRNA and Nour News as quoted by CNBC and Reuters. "The era of wasting time and dictating unilateral demands is over," he said, per Al Jazeera. No report in our feed lists all seven. CNBC says they include a halt to US "acts of aggression", an end to the naval blockade and to economic warfare, and the release of Iranian assets, and the reports don't say how they map onto the seven-day plan foreign minister Abbas Araghchi set out on September 25. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran had told Washington its focus at this stage is the strait rather than the nuclear file, and Araghchi said Iran is "more prepared than before" if the United States turns back to military action, per Reuters as carried by MarineLink. Reuters adds that the US reply to the seven-day plan came through Qatari intermediaries the week before; its terms still aren't public. At sea, UKMTO said a tanker in the strait was hit by an unknown projectile on October 4, damaging its engine room, with the crew safe, per Mehr and CNBC. The security firm Vanguard Tech and a NAVAREA IX navigational warning identified it as the Lipsi, a Liberian-flagged product tanker delivered in August and managed by Greece's Dynacom, which lost propulsion and was left drifting, per Cyprus Mail as carried by UA.NEWS and per Data Portuaria. UKMTO didn't say who fired. Data Portuaria says UKMTO has logged nearly one attack a day over the past week, most of them on engine rooms. Two more strikes on October 4 came to light a day later. In time-late notices issued on October 5, UKMTO said an LPG tanker was struck by an unknown projectile at 17:16 UTC and a crude oil tanker at 19:07 UTC, per gCaptain. Also on October 4, UKMTO said a tanker's crew reported several explosions close to their ship about 60 nautical miles south of Mokha, Yemen, per Mehr. Reuters reported on October 3 that Yemen's Houthis said they had fired ballistic missiles and drones at a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh, which Saudi authorities hadn't commented on, per CNBC.

On October 5 the Revolutionary Guard turned a tanker back, and new figures showed how the oil is getting out. UKMTO said a tanker 11 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, was hailed by Guard forces on October 5 and warned it would be targeted unless it turned back, and that its master complied, per Mehr and Anadolu. At 16:37 UTC a tanker in the strait was struck by an unknown projectile and reported a fire in its engine room, per gCaptain, which counted five UKMTO notices on the day: four attacks, three of them reported late from October 3 and 4, and the Guard's warning. On the second chokepoint, Yemen's Saudi-backed government said its forces retook the coast around the Bab el-Mandeb as far as Mocha on October 5 after heavy Saudi air strikes. The Houthis called the claim baseless, and Reuters couldn't verify how far the advance went, per MarineLink. On volume, Reuters reported on October 5, on provisional Kpler data, that crude exports from the Middle East topped their pre-war average of about 18 million barrels a day on September 24 and from September 27 to 29, reaching 19.5 million to 22.5 million, per DW and Splash247. That total isn't a measure of what crosses the strait, which qualifies the CNBC report of September 30 above. The recovery leans on other routes and on ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, and DW, citing Kpler, says about 40% of the crude left the Gulf without crossing Hormuz in September, against 17% before the war, with Saudi Arabia shipping more through the Red Sea and the UAE using its pipeline to Fujairah. For the strait itself the figure is lower: The National, citing Kpler, puts total flows through Hormuz at 6.02 million barrels a day in September, less than a third of February's 20.64 million. Our own PortWatch vessel count, which runs several days behind, stays far below pre-war levels, and it can't see ships that cross with their AIS transponders off. The Wall Street Journal's account on October 4 was that oil had been pouring out of the strait again before the attacks on ships picked up. Reuters reported on September 29 that loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu had resumed after the East-West pipeline restarted, and Kpler put flow on the line near 2.65 million barrels a day on September 28, about half the pre-attack rate, per Baird Maritime; Saudi Aramco hasn't confirmed a figure. We now count the pipeline as partly running. Saudi Arabia cut its November crude prices for Asia, per Moomoo. Brent was near $101.70 at 14:15 UTC on October 5, down about 0.5% from the prior settle, per our own feed.

On October 6 a projectile hit the Panama-flagged MT On Peace as she transited the strait off Oman. India's foreign ministry said 12 of her 19 crew were hurt, 11 of them Indian, and that they were taken ashore with Omani help and treated in Khasab, per PTI as carried by ThePrint. India condemned the attack and didn't say who fired. A Greek LNG carrier also joined the list: the Maran Gas Mystras, of the Angelicoussis group, was hit near the waterline as she left the strait and sailed on to Fujairah with her 30 crew reported safe, per Greek City Times and Cyprus Mail. The date is unsettled: the Greek shipping ministry, as carried by Kathimerini, and SAFETY4SEA put the strike on Sunday, October 4, so we place it around that day, while a UKMTO notice timed 16:37 UTC on October 5 that names no ship may describe the same strike, per Fish 4 News. Also on Tuesday, October 6, President Trump, speaking outside the Oval Office, said "the Strait of Hormuz belongs to the United States of America" and described how the blockade treats Iranian ships that run it: those carrying oil are hit in the cabin or the rudder, and "if it doesn't have oil, we just sink the ship", per The Sunday Guardian and Moneycontrol. Tehran also changed its oil minister as exports dried up: President Masoud Pezeshkian accepted Mohsen Paknejad's resignation on October 4, having turned down earlier requests, and named Hamid Bovard, head of the National Iranian Oil Company, acting minister, per Bloomberg and The National; Bloomberg cites Iran's central bank chief as saying the blockade has cut crude exports to zero. Brent was near $98.50 at 15:40 UTC on October 6, down about 3% over twenty-four hours, per our own feed.

On October 7 Iran said again that the strait stays closed, Washington said it doesn't, and attacks on tankers reached their highest weekly level of the war. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the Revolutionary Guard commander, told the Guard-linked Fars agency that the strait is closed, that Iran's armed forces have full control over it and that it stays closed until Iran's "legitimate demands" are met. He added that routes Iran calls illegal, which he said offenders had opened by blasting rock passages, will soon be blocked, per Rudaw and CBS News. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Athens, said the strait is open, that "there's almost as much oil flowing out now as there was before this conflict began" and that Iran has "lost complete control" of it, per The Times of Israel. US Central Command called Naqdi's claim false in a post on X and said traffic was flowing "right now" with commercial goods and energy supplies, including 20 million barrels of crude, without saying over what period, per Gulf News and The Tribune. CENTCOM had said on Monday, October 5 that it had redirected its 130th commercial vessel under the blockade of Iranian ports, and that 13 vessels had been destroyed and three disabled, per Rudaw. At sea, Reuters reported on October 7, citing three maritime security sources, that at least 12 attacks hit oil, LNG and LPG tankers around the strait in the week of September 28 to October 5, the most in any single week since the war began on February 28. The International Maritime Organization recorded nine incidents involving vessels that week, but the sources said it is slower to verify them; its previous high was eight, in the week of July 13, per gCaptain. UKMTO has reported at least nine incidents since the start of October, per Rudaw. CNBC, citing the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center, counted nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly tankers, attacked over the past month, and, citing Kpler, put crude flow through Hormuz at about 10.3 million barrels a day in the week to October 3, against a pre-war baseline of 13.5 million, per Hellenic Shipping News; that baseline is lower than the February figure above, so the two numbers can't be compared directly. On the evening of October 7, UKMTO said a tanker about 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, off Qatar's north coast, had been hit by multiple projectiles and that there were casualties. It gave no number, didn't name the ship and didn't say who fired, per Gulf News and Arab Times. The strike was inside the Gulf, not at the strait. On the talks, Vice President JD Vance told Reuters, in an interview published on October 6, that Iran must make a "meaningful" cut to its enrichment capacity to end the war, and said "it's not totally clear how their country makes decisions", per Al Jazeera. On October 7 a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Vance's requests were at odds with Iran's demands, that no nuclear negotiations have taken place, and that Washington must first meet Tehran's conditions, including lifting the blockade of Iranian ports, per CBS News. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran and Oman have an understanding on the coordinates of safe routes and on how to take them to the relevant international body soon, per Gulf News; Iran first announced agreement on the coordinates on August 5, per Reuters. Brent was near $101.87 at 14:36 UTC on October 7, per our own feed.

On Thursday, October 8, President Trump said there would be no attack on Iran before the election. Posting on Truth Social, he wrote that "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" on November 3, cited "productive discussions" with Tehran and said the blockade "will remain in full force and effect", per CBS News and AFP. A day earlier The Atlantic had reported that the White House asked the Pentagon for strike options that could be used before the vote, per CBS News. Brent was near $105.70 at 15:58 UTC on October 8 and $103.86 by 16:31 UTC, per our own feed. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran is studying Washington's reply to its seven-day plan and will answer within a few days, with messages still passing through mediators, per CBS News and IRNA as carried by Gulf News. President Pezeshkian, who had called talks with Washington "meaningless" on October 5, said in Turkmenistan that Tehran was "engaged in dialogue" but that US attacks had followed each round, per AFP.

At sea on October 8, maritime security sources named the tanker hit off Qatar on October 7 as the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged chemical tanker Acers and said her crew had minor injuries, per Reuters as carried by gCaptain. UKMTO, in a notice issued two days late, said a crude oil tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the strait at 17:09 UTC on October 6, with no casualties reported, per CBS News and Anadolu; it named no ship, and the On Peace attack had been reported hours before that time, so it appears to be a separate strike. A senior regional official close to Tehran told Reuters that Iran has warned its neighbours that any attempt to open new oil export routes would be treated as hostile, and BIMCO's safety chief, Jakob Larsen, said "the Iranian threat appears to have increased". Traffic thinned: Reuters, on Kpler data, counted seven commodity vessels through on Tuesday, October 6, the fewest since July 23, and ten on Wednesday, against more than 20 on Sunday and Monday. Kpler's count of commodity vessels is a different measure from our own PortWatch count. The US Treasury sanctioned 17 vessels and the companies that own them, and the State Department five more vessels, 10 entities and six people, per gCaptain and Reuters as carried by MarineLink.

On Friday, October 9, Iranian outlets reported heavy explosions in the south of the strait. The Guard-linked Fars agency, citing unnamed military sources, said tankers on routes Iran hasn't approved may have struck mines, per Al Jazeera and Anadolu. No maritime authority has confirmed it, and US Central Command said on October 8 that its forces had cleared sea mines from the primary transit lanes, per Newsquawk. Brent was near $102.65 at 12:13 UTC on October 9, per our own feed.

Later on October 9 the Revolutionary Guard claimed a strike on an LPG tanker and said its enforcement now reaches beyond the strait. Its navy said it hit a "giant" LPG carrier that was crossing an "unauthorized" route south of the strait, and that the ship caught fire in the engine room and propulsion system, per Xinhua and Tasnim, and per Anadolu as carried by Middle East Monitor. The statement named the ship as the NV Sunshine. The Maritime Executive calls her a Vietnamese-owned LPG tanker and says her AIS signal showed her anchored off Ras Laffan, Qatar, so where the Guard says she was hit is unconfirmed, and no maritime authority has confirmed the strike or the fire. The Guard said any ship using a route Tehran hasn't approved will be "pursued" across the region and "definitely punished", that companies it says the United States misled face sanctions and punitive measures against their vessels, and that the US military is to blame for the escalation, per Xinhua and Tasnim. The Financial Times and Euronews both reported the threat to ships beyond the strait. Separately, UKMTO logged a strike by an unknown projectile on a vessel about 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera, UAE, at about 10:00 UTC on October 9, which started a fire that has since been put out, per gCaptain, which called it the second ship struck inside the Persian Gulf in three days. UKMTO didn't name the ship or say who fired. Several security firms identify her as the Chinese-owned supertanker Gem No. 2, per The Maritime Executive, which says the name is unconfirmed, and that the Guard did not claim this attack. No report we found links it to the NV Sunshine claim. Windward counts 12 vessels struck in the recent attacks, 11 of them tankers, all in the southern channel near Oman with their AIS transmissions off, per The Maritime Executive. US Central Command said on October 9 that it had redirected 133 commercial vessels under the blockade of Iranian ports, up from 130 on October 5, per Middle East Eye. The Financial Times, citing Kpler data, reported that oil exports through Hormuz fell to a seven-day average of 9.9 million barrels a day on October 7, 42% below pre-war levels and down from about 15.5 million in September, per Middle East Eye on October 10; that is a different Kpler series from the figures above. The talks did not move: Iranian state media repeated on October 9 that the strait stays closed until Iran's conditions are fully met, per Mehr. Brent settled at $104.72 on October 9, per our own feed.

On Saturday, October 10, tankers were hit again and the Revolutionary Guard reported a mine. At about 19:20 UTC UKMTO reported that an outbound tanker was hit on her port side by an unknown projectile in the strait, that she caught fire and that her crew were reported safe, per gCaptain. UKMTO didn't say who fired. That night the Guard said a crude supertanker had struck a mine on a route Iran hasn't approved, with her navigation systems off, per Mehr. The statement didn't name the ship, and no maritime authority has confirmed a mine. Separately, the UAE National Guard said it rescued 22 crew after a fire on a tanker in Gulf waters, without naming the ship or giving a cause, per Reuters. Also on October 10, US Central Command said a US fighter jet hit the stern of the Panama-flagged cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman and disabled her propulsion, and that her crew were unharmed, per Reuters.

On Sunday, October 11, UKMTO reported another outbound tanker hit on her port side by an unidentified projectile, with damage and all crew safe, per gCaptain. The same day the Guard said another supertanker had hit a mine south of the strait, per Mehr; again, no maritime authority has confirmed it. India's foreign ministry said the tanker Petro Dolphin was reportedly hit by a drone on October 11 and that two of her crew are missing, per Gulf News. India condemned the attacks and said they must cease, per Hindustan Times, and ThePrint reported that two merchant vessels with 22 Indian crew aboard had been attacked. gCaptain, writing on October 12, counted six commercial vessels reported struck in and around the strait on October 11, five of them tankers and one a container ship. On the talks, Mohsen Rezaei, whom Reuters calls Iran's security chief and who is a former Revolutionary Guard commander, called Washington's reply to Iran's seven conditions "insufficient", per state media as quoted by Reuters and carried by gCaptain. Hindustan Times reported Iran saying the United States had accepted some of the seven conditions.

On Monday, October 12, the Guard claimed a third supertanker hit, UKMTO reported more ships struck that evening, and Iran said it would answer Washington once its review of the US reply was done. Early in the day the Guard's navy said a third oil tanker had caught fire after hitting a mine on a route it hadn't approved, despite warnings, per Mehr and IRNA, both Iranian state media. Later Anadolu reported the Guard as saying a third "offending" supertanker had been hit in two days, which TradeWinds headlined as a claimed strike on an ADNOC L&S supertanker. We can't tell whether these are one claim or two, so we count them as one, and we found no maritime authority confirming either. The navy chief, Ali Azmaei, said ships that switch off their navigation and identification systems in the strait will be classed as hostile and face decisive action, per Mehr; Splash247 carried the same warning on October 13. IranWire reported that the Guard also warned US allies, and on October 13 the International Quds News Agency headlined that the navy said another oil tanker was hit and warned against cooperating with the US. Because IranWire paired the same claim and warning a day earlier, we haven't counted that as a new hit. At sea, marketscreener.com carried a UKMTO report at about 18:30 UTC of a products tanker struck by an unknown projectile in the strait, and Gulf News carried a UKMTO alert at about 19:10 UTC that three vessels had been struck by unknown projectiles. The headlines don't say whether the three include the products tanker, and none says who fired. On the second front, airstrikes hit Sanaa, per Gulf Today and WRAL. On the talks, foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran is still reviewing the US response to its proposal and will reply through intermediaries when the review ends, per MarineLink. Fitch said it expects a durable deal to reopen the strait in early 2027, per Anadolu, and bloomingbit's headline puts it in the first quarter. Separately, 60 countries backed an EU declaration against fees on shipping through straits, per India Today. The attacks on Riyadh that came up in the US were Houthi ones: a Houthi missile struck King Khalid International Airport on the night of October 10, killing 12 people, one of them an American, and injuring 309, per Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority as reported by The Week. The toll rose to 13 when an injured Indian national died on October 11, per India's embassy as reported by Anadolu, and another strike on the airport that day killed one more person, per Al Jazeera. Asked whether the US would join Saudi strikes on the Houthis, President Trump said: "We may. We're going to look at it." On October 8 he had said he wouldn't attack Iran before the November 3 midterms.

On Tuesday, October 13, UKMTO reported that two ships, a container ship of about 50,000 tons and a vessel of about 19,000 tons, were hit by unknown projectiles in the strait and carried on with minor damage and no casualties, per AFP as carried by CBS News. On the second front, the Saudi-led coalition said it struck oil sites in Sanaa, Dhamar and Saada that it said supplied the Houthi war effort, per AFP. Debris from two intercepted Houthi missiles fell on homes in Riyadh and injured four people, per Saudi Civil Defense, and Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said a limited fire broke out in an administrative building at an Aramco facility in the Eastern Province, with no injuries, per AP. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecasts for Gulf economies because of the prolonged closure, per The National. Brent settled at $105.69, per Al Jazeera.

On Wednesday, October 14, a container ship sank near the strait, and the two accounts of what sank her disagree. The Revolutionary Guard said a ship carrying more than 2,500 containers hit a naval mine south of the strait on a route it called unauthorized, per AP, which couldn't verify the claim; the Guard didn't name the ship. Maritime security sources told Reuters that the Singapore-flagged GFS Pride, a 2,824-TEU container ship managed from the UAE, sank after being hit by a projectile, and a Pakistani navigational warning the same day said she was reported sunk with floating containers. We can't say whether the Guard and Reuters describe the same ship, or which cause is right. Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority said GFS Pride was struck on October 13, caught fire and later sank, and that all 21 of her crew were evacuated, per MarineLink. Her sister ship GFS Giselle was struck on October 14 and took hull damage, but she reached a safe anchorage under her own power and her 22 crew are safe. The bulk carrier Cape Dao, hit by a projectile on September 23, has sunk too, and IMO casualty data make GFS Pride and Cape Dao the second and third ships sunk since the war began on February 28, per Reuters as carried by gCaptain. UKMTO counted 15 attacks on ships from October 6 to October 14, 11 of them in the last four days, per Al Jazeera, and two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Iran changed the type and pace of its attacks about ten days earlier, in part to keep oil prices high ahead of the US midterms. A US military official told Reuters the Guard now uses unarmed spotters on dhows to find targets. Iran's navy said it had deployed new units east of the strait and across the Sea of Oman and the Arabian Sea, per Press TV as carried by Al Jazeera. Brent was near $106.58 early on October 14, per Al Jazeera.

On Thursday, October 15, US Central Command said the United States and its regional partners control the strait, and cited more than 40 commercial ships moving through it in the previous 24 hours, per gCaptain. That count covers a different window from the IMF PortWatch series, whose newest day, Sunday October 11, holds two crossings, with a seven-day average near four; PortWatch can't see ships that cross with AIS off. Central Command also rejected the Guard's mine account, saying a Guard projectile hit GFS Pride, and the Joint Maritime Information Center said it found no evidence of a mine, per gCaptain. Tehran held to its line that the strait is closed: the army's deputy chief for coordination, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, said any passage must be coordinated with Iranian forces, per IRNA. On the second front, missiles hit the al-Maashiq presidential palace in Aden, which Yemen's Saudi-backed government uses, killing five people and injuring 16, per Yemen's health minister as reported by Al Jazeera. The government blamed the Houthis, and The Guardian reported at least six explosions near the palace.

On Friday, October 16, BBC Verify said reported attacks on ships near the strait had hit a record high, with 12 vessels struck in a week, on data from a UK maritime agency. Two of Iran's army officers spoke about when the strait might open. The army chief, Major General Amir Hatami, said it will stay closed until the rights of the Iranian people are respected, per IRNA and Press TV, while army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said it will reopen if the United States leaves the region and that Iran will expel US forces if they stay, per CBS News and TASS, which cited Fars. Since October 15 Iran's army and navy have said several times that a "violating" tanker caught fire east of the strait or in the Gulf of Oman while crossing a prohibited area, per Mehr, IRNA and Xinhua, but they haven't said how any fire started and no maritime authority has confirmed one, so we can't tell whether these are one claim or several. In an exclusive carried by gCaptain, Reuters reported that Iran has exported some LPG and jet fuel since July despite the US blockade, hiding cargoes among the growing number of ship-to-ship transfers by other Gulf producers off Oman. The advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran counts at least eight gas tankers carrying Iranian LPG out of the Gulf of Oman since mid-July. A US Treasury spokesperson warned that ships can fake their positions, and Central Command calls the blockade "ironclad".

From the evening of Friday, October 16, to Monday, October 19, Iran claimed more mine strikes, Washington said the strait is open, and Iran set out its reopening plan again on a shorter clock. Late on October 16 UKMTO said most attacks on ships now go unreported, per gCaptain, and on October 19 Splash247 reported that the volume of attacks has left the centre struggling to keep track. Iran's army said again that any passage must be coordinated with its forces, per the Tehran Times. Brent touched $110 on October 16, per CNBC, and settled at $109.86 that Friday, up 3.72%, per our own feed. On the second front Yemen's government said the Houthis fired two missiles at Aden airport that evening, per Al Jazeera. On Saturday, October 17, the Revolutionary Guard's navy said two supertankers had hit mines in the strait and caught fire, per Reuters and gCaptain, and Middle East Eye reported that the Guard declared the strait closed after the hits. No maritime authority has confirmed either mine strike. US Central Command said the vast majority of Iran's attempted attacks fail, per Fox News, and late on October 17 the US military said the strait remains open and that 97% of ships cross it safely, per ANI and The Economic Times. The head of the International Maritime Organization urged ships to avoid the strait, per Xinhua. On Sunday, October 18, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi urged Washington to accept Iran's proposal and said the strait would reopen on the sixth day if the United States meets Iran's conditions, per Reuters. That's a change: the plan he set out on September 25 had the strait reopen on the seventh day. Iran also threatened enormous damage if it is attacked, per the Hindustan Times. The same day Al Jazeera reported ships attacked off the UAE and Yemen and drones downed near Riyadh. From the evening of October 18 into October 19 the Guard's navy and Iranian media claimed that yet another "violating" tanker hit a mine south of the strait and caught fire, per Mehr and Press TV. Because Iran describes it as a new hit after the two of October 17, we count it as a separate claim, and no maritime authority has confirmed it either. On October 19 a tanker was hit off Saudi Arabia's Gulf coast and her crew evacuated, per Naharnet, and the IMO put the number of seafarers trapped by the crisis at about 6,000, per Fox News. With markets shut over the weekend, Brent was near $108 on Monday, per our own feed.