When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

1. When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

   The Islamabad Memorandum, a Pakistan-brokered US-Iran framework signed June 17, 2026, was meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz toll-free for 60 days and end the US naval blockade of Iran, but the ceasefire frayed within days and the reopening did not hold. ${RECENT_ESCALATION} Passage is cut off again: transit has been disrupted by fresh attacks on shipping in the strait, so commercial traffic has not returned while the June 17 framework is in dispute. Roughly 370 ships remain stranded on either side, sea mines have yet to be cleared, and war-risk insurance remains around 2-4% (versus about 0.25% in peacetime). Prediction markets price "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" at 3% on Polymarket (closes 31 July 2026). The 30-day Escalation Forecast reads 62 (high).

2. What are the odds the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon?

   A public prediction market currently prices "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" at 3% implied probability, resolving 31 July 2026. The figure drifts with each escalation and de-escalation.

3. Is the Strait of Hormuz reopening now?

   No. The Islamabad Memorandum (June 17, 2026) was signed and briefly lifted the US naval blockade, but the reopening did not hold: transit has been disrupted by fresh attacks on shipping in the strait, so passage is cut off again while the framework is in dispute. In early July Iran attacked commercial ships in the strait, the United States struck more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed oil sanctions, and President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8. On July 8 and 9 US forces struck Iranian coastal cities on consecutive nights, and Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes on US bases in Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. A limited and contested trickle of transits has since resumed under continuing strikes, while diplomacy has shifted to an Oman-mediated track in Muscat, where Oman has floated separate inbound and outbound shipping lanes and a navigational-fee framework that Washington opposes and Tehran has resisted, and the United States presses Iran to publicly declare the strait open to all traffic. In the days since, the strikes have continued through further US rounds and a renewed wave of Iranian attacks off Oman that set a container ship ablaze and hit a second vessel, and Iranian retaliation has widened to US logistics on Omani soil. Iran has again declared the strait closed until further notice, even as Iran and Oman have agreed to keep the Oman-mediated talks on shipping security going. Into July 13 the fighting has intensified further: US forces have carried out a fourth wave of strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near the strait, both sides now claim control of the waterway, Iran has fired warning shots at merchant ships attempting passage, and transits have fallen to their lowest level in several weeks. Only a handful of ships have transited and the largest carriers and insurers have not returned. We track the PortWatch 7-day moving average as the leading signal of sustained throughput.

4. How do prediction markets decide the strait has reopened?

   The dominant Polymarket and Kalshi contracts resolve YES when IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of daily transit calls at or above 60 for the Strait of Hormuz. The average currently reads 32.1 as of 2026-07-05, 27.9 below the threshold.

5. What has to happen for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen?

   The Islamabad Memorandum (signed June 17, 2026, brokered by Pakistan) opened a 60-day toll-free window and briefly lifted the US naval blockade, but the ceasefire frayed within days and collapsed entirely in early July. In early July Iran attacked commercial ships in the strait, the United States struck more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed oil sanctions, and President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8. On July 8 and 9 US forces struck Iranian coastal cities on consecutive nights, and Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes on US bases in Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. A limited and contested trickle of transits has since resumed under continuing strikes, while diplomacy has shifted to an Oman-mediated track in Muscat, where Oman has floated separate inbound and outbound shipping lanes and a navigational-fee framework that Washington opposes and Tehran has resisted, and the United States presses Iran to publicly declare the strait open to all traffic. In the days since, the strikes have continued through further US rounds and a renewed wave of Iranian attacks off Oman that set a container ship ablaze and hit a second vessel, and Iranian retaliation has widened to US logistics on Omani soil. Iran has again declared the strait closed until further notice, even as Iran and Oman have agreed to keep the Oman-mediated talks on shipping security going. Into July 13 the fighting has intensified further: US forces have carried out a fourth wave of strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near the strait, both sides now claim control of the waterway, Iran has fired warning shots at merchant ships attempting passage, and transits have fallen to their lowest level in several weeks. A durable halt to US-Iran hostilities is now the first thing that has to hold. Beyond that: sea mine clearance, war-risk insurance falling back below about 4x the peacetime rate, the roughly 370 stranded ships clearing the backlog, and the major container lines resuming regular Hormuz transits. Daily PortWatch transit counts returning toward the roughly 88/day pre-crisis baseline are the lagging confirmation. Full normalization is expected to take months, with mine clearance alone likely to run for weeks.

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