The question
What is the Hormuz Index right now?
Crisis Pressure
State94/100
Extreme0 · 24h
Escalation Forecast
30-day forecast62/100
High0 · 24h
Crisis Pressure reads 94 of 100 (extreme), reflecting the state signals are at sustained crisis levels. The Escalation Forecast reads 62 of 100 (high), where forward markets price a high 30-day risk of a bad outcome.
Two indices, two questions.
Crisis Pressure answers “how bad is it right now?” It is a weighted composite of AIS transit deviation, war-risk insurance, GDELT event pressure, and the dread priced into Brent options. It moves with the physical and market state of the strait.
The Escalation Forecast answers “what comes next?” It weights Polymarket aggregate odds, the Brent front-month term-structure slope, and Manifold forward contracts into a 30-day outlook. When forward markets thin out, the forecast is flagged low-confidence rather than presented as firm.
Both recompute every five minutes, are versioned (currently v0.3.3), and expose their full per-component breakdown as JSON. Every weight, decay rule, and override is documented in the methodology so the number is replicable rather than a black box.
Frequently asked.
FAQWhat is the Hormuz Index?
The Hormuz Index is an umbrella over two live 0-100 composites that quantify the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Crisis Pressure measures the current state of the disruption from physical and market signals; the Escalation Forecast prices the 30-day outlook from prediction markets and forward oil structure. Both recompute every five minutes and are documented at straits.live/methodology.
What is the current Hormuz Index reading?
Crisis Pressure reads 94 of 100 (extreme), reflecting the state signals are at sustained crisis levels. The Escalation Forecast reads 62 of 100 (high), where forward markets price a high 30-day risk of a bad outcome.
How is the Hormuz Index calculated?
Crisis Pressure (v0.3.3) is a weighted composite of AIS transit deviation, war-risk insurance, GDELT event pressure, and Brent options dread. The Escalation Forecast weights Polymarket aggregate odds, the Brent term-structure slope, and Manifold forward contracts. Every component, weight, and rail is published in the methodology, and the full breakdown is available as JSON at straits.live/api/index.
What is the difference between Crisis Pressure and the Escalation Forecast?
Crisis Pressure is a state measure: how bad things are right now, drawn from what is physically happening in the strait and how markets are repricing risk today. The Escalation Forecast is forward-looking: what prediction markets and forward oil structure imply about the next 30 days. A calm forecast alongside high current pressure means markets expect the disruption to ease; the reverse means they expect it to worsen.
Cite this page
Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure (current state) and Escalation Forecast (30-day outlook), each 0 to 100, per the straits.live methodology. Source: https://straits.live/hormuz-index