The question
Is oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz?
The answer
Barely.
Crude is still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, but at a fraction of normal volume. Commercial transit is running at 11% of the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 95 vessels a day. War-risk insurance is at 8.0× normal. 8 of the world's largest container carriers have suspended Hormuz transits or rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope.
Why we say so.
Live indicatorsThroughput
11%
of pre-crisis typical
Commercial transits
10
vs ~95/day · IMF PortWatch
War-risk insurance
8.0×
Lloyd's JWC listed-area
World oil at risk
21%
seaborne crude via Hormuz
Brent
$98.29
spot
Why this chokepoint matters.
In peacetime, roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and about a quarter of seaborne LNG move through the Strait of Hormuz. No other chokepoint carries as much energy, and no seaborne route avoids it for most Gulf crude.
Combined bypass capacity from the Petroline, ADCOP, and Goreh-Jask pipelines amounts to roughly 40% of normal Hormuz throughput. The remaining 60% of Gulf crude has nowhere to go that does not cross the strait, which is why a disruption here feeds directly into Brent rather than being absorbed by spare pipeline capacity.
The flow figure above tracks commercial vessel transits via IMF PortWatch, not barrels directly, but the two move together: fewer tankers clearing the chokepoint means less crude reaching the market. War-risk insurance and carrier postures are the amplifiers that turn a partial physical disruption into a much larger priced-in supply shock.
Frequently asked.
FAQIs oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz right now?
Barely. Crude is still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, but at a fraction of normal volume. Commercial transit is running at 11% of the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 95 vessels a day. War-risk insurance is at 8.0× normal. 8 of the world's largest container carriers have suspended Hormuz transits or rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope.
How much of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz?
In peacetime, roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and about a quarter of seaborne LNG move through the Strait of Hormuz, making it the single most important oil chokepoint on the planet. Most of that crude originates in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iran and has no seaborne alternative that avoids the strait.
Can Gulf oil bypass the Strait of Hormuz?
Only partially. The Saudi East-West (Petroline), the UAE’s ADCOP line to Fujairah, and Iran’s Goreh-Jask pipeline together can move roughly 40% of normal Hormuz crude volume around the chokepoint. The remaining ~60% of Gulf crude has nowhere to go that does not cross the strait.
What happens to oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz closes?
A full, sustained closure would remove a fifth of seaborne crude supply with no quick substitute, and analysts have modelled scenarios well above $120 a barrel. The live Brent figure and the modelled price impact are tracked at straits.live/oil-price-impact-explained.
Cite this page
Strait of Hormuz crude-flow status and throughput versus the pre-crisis baseline per IMF PortWatch (chokepoint6 dataset), as surfaced by straits.live. Source: https://straits.live/is-oil-flowing-through-the-strait-of-hormuz