Who controls the Strait of Hormuz.

Who closed it.

The parties that declared and enforce the closure of the strait to commercial shipping. Iran has since claimed reopenings more than once; carriers have not returned, which is why the verdict tracks carrier postures.

1. Iran

   Closed the strait to commercial shipping in response to the 28 February 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes (Operation Epic Fury); the formal closure was declared in early March 2026, opening the crisis.

2. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

   Holds the operational authority to enforce the closure across the chokepoint and its approaches.

Who is contesting it.

The military and commercial actors responding to the closure on the water.

1. US Navy / CENTCOM

   Ran the naval blockade of Iran declared in April 2026 and the Project Freedom escort convoys; briefly lifted the blockade on June 18, 2026 under the Islamabad Memorandum, then resumed strikes on Iranian targets after the ceasefire frayed and finally collapsed on July 8 as Iran moved to re-assert control over the strait. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since February 28, 2026. Iran re-declared it closed after the July ceasefire collapsed, and the war has spread to a second chokepoint, where control of the Yemeni side of the Bab el-Mandeb is contested: the Houthis took it in September, Yemen's Saudi-backed government said on October 5 that it had retaken the coast up to Mocha, the Houthis deny it, and Reuters couldn't verify the claim. US forces have destroyed Iranian tankers and Iran has fired missiles at US warships and bases, while merchant ships are being hit at more than one a day: a projectile hit the Kuwaiti supertanker Al Funtas in the strait on the evening of September 28, three more ships were hit on September 29, the Kuwaiti supertanker Kazimah III was set on fire on October 1, two more tankers were reported hit on October 2, on October 4 the product tanker Lipsi was hit in the engine room and left drifting, two more tankers were struck on the evening of October 4, a tanker was hit on October 5 and reported an engine-room fire, the LNG carrier Maran Gas Mystras was hit leaving the strait around October 4, on October 6 a projectile hit the Panama-flagged On Peace off Oman, injuring 12 of her crew, 11 of them Indian, per India's foreign ministry, and on the evening of October 7 UKMTO said a tanker about 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, off Qatar, was hit by multiple projectiles with casualties; maritime security sources later named her as the chemical tanker Acers, with minor crew injuries, per Reuters. Reuters, citing three maritime security sources, reported on October 7 that at least 12 attacks hit tankers around the strait in the week of September 28 to October 5, the most in any week since the war began. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre hasn't said who fired. The Guard-linked Fars news agency said on October 3 that the Revolutionary Guard's navy had targeted seven "violating" tankers in five days, and Iranian state media say three Emirati tankers among those hit were on Iran's non-compliance list. On October 5 Guard forces warned a tanker north of Khasab, Oman, that it would be targeted unless it turned back, and it complied, per UKMTO. On September 23 a seafarer was killed when projectiles hit the bulk carrier Cape Dao off Oman. Drones launched from Iraq shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the largest route around the strait, on September 11; it restarted at a low rate on September 22 and loadings at Yanbu resumed within the week, with Kpler putting flow near 2.65 million barrels a day on September 28, about half the pre-attack rate, per Reuters as carried by Baird Maritime; Saudi Aramco hasn't confirmed a figure. How much is moving is contested, and the answer depends on what is counted. Reuters, on provisional Kpler data, reported on October 5 that Middle East crude exports topped their pre-war average of about 18 million barrels a day on four days in late September. That total leans on routes around the strait and on ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman: DW, citing Kpler, says about 40% of the crude left the Gulf without crossing the strait in September. The National, citing Kpler, puts flows through the strait itself at 6.02 million barrels a day in September, less than a third of February's. Vessel counts, ours included, stay far below pre-war levels, though they can't see tankers that cross with AIS off. On the talks, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi set out a seven-day plan on September 25: the United States would release frozen assets, lift oil sanctions and end its blockade, fighting would stop, and Iran would reopen the strait within the week. President Trump rejected it in public on September 26, and on September 30 Iran said it had received a US response, whose terms haven't been published. On October 4 parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strait won't open until Iran's seven conditions, which he said rest on the June Islamabad Memorandum, are met; CNBC says they include an end to the US blockade and the release of Iranian assets. On October 1 the United States added sanctions on Iran's rail system and a shadow banking network. On October 6 President Trump said the strait "belongs to the United States of America" and that US forces sink Iranian ships that run the blockade with no oil aboard. Iran's oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, resigned on October 4 with crude exports stalled under the blockade, and Hamid Bovard of the National Iranian Oil Company is acting minister, per Bloomberg. On October 7 Revolutionary Guard adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi said, per the Guard-linked Fars agency, that the strait stays closed until Iran's demands are met and that routes Iran calls illegal will soon be blocked. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the strait is open and Iran has lost control of it, and US Central Command called the closure claim false. Vice President JD Vance told Reuters that Iran must make a meaningful cut to its enrichment capacity, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Washington must first meet Tehran's conditions before nuclear talks can start. On October 8 President Trump said the US won't attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and that the blockade stays in force, and Iran said it would answer Washington's reply to its seven-day plan within a few days. On October 9 Iranian media reported that tankers on routes Iran hasn't approved may have hit mines, which no maritime authority has confirmed and US Central Command disputes, saying it has cleared the primary lanes. The same day the Revolutionary Guard claimed a strike on an LPG tanker it named as the NV Sunshine, which no maritime authority has confirmed, and said ships using routes Iran hasn't approved will be pursued across the region, not only in the strait. Separately, UKMTO logged a projectile strike and fire on a vessel about 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera, UAE, without naming the ship or who fired. US Central Command says it had redirected 133 commercial vessels under the blockade by October 9, and Brent settled at $104.72 that day, per our own feed. On October 10 and 11 UKMTO reported more outbound tankers hit on the port side by projectiles, with the crews reported safe, per gCaptain, and gCaptain counted six vessels reported struck in and around the strait on October 11. The Guard said supertankers had hit mines on October 10 and 11, then a third on October 12, none confirmed by a maritime authority, per Mehr and Anadolu, and its navy chief said ships that switch off their tracking will be treated as hostile, per Mehr. On October 10 US Central Command said a US fighter jet disabled the propulsion of the Panama-flagged cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman, with her crew unharmed, per Reuters. On the evening of October 12 UKMTO reported a products tanker and then three vessels struck by unknown projectiles, and none of the reports says who fired. On the talks, Mohsen Rezaei, whom Reuters calls Iran's security chief, called Washington's reply to Iran's seven conditions "insufficient" on October 11, and on October 12 foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran is still reviewing the reply and will answer through intermediaries, per MarineLink. Fitch said it expects a durable deal to reopen the strait in early 2027, per Anadolu. On the second front, a Houthi missile struck Riyadh's main airport on October 10, killing 12 people, per Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority; an injured man later died, bringing the toll to 13, and a second strike on October 11 killed one more, per Al Jazeera. On October 13 the Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi oil sites in Yemen, per AFP, while President Trump said the US may join Saudi strikes on the Houthis. On October 13 UKMTO reported two more ships hit by projectiles with minor damage, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecasts for Gulf economies because of the prolonged closure, per The National, and Brent settled at $105.69, per Al Jazeera. On October 14 a container ship sank near the strait: the Guard said a ship carrying more than 2,500 containers hit a mine, per AP, while maritime security sources told Reuters the Singapore-flagged GFS Pride sank after a projectile hit her. Singapore's port authority said all 21 of her crew were evacuated and that her sister ship GFS Giselle, hit on October 14, reached anchorage with her crew safe. The bulk carrier Cape Dao, hit on September 23, has also sunk, and per IMO casualty data GFS Pride and Cape Dao are the second and third ships sunk since February 28, per Reuters. UKMTO counted 15 attacks on ships from October 6 to October 14, 11 of them in the last four days, per Al Jazeera, and on October 16 BBC Verify said 12 vessels were struck in a week, a record. On October 15 US Central Command said the US and its partners control the strait, citing more than 40 commercial ships through it in 24 hours, and that a Guard projectile, not a mine, hit GFS Pride, per gCaptain; PortWatch counted about four crossings a day in the week to October 18. Iran's army chief said the strait stays closed until Iran's rights are respected, per IRNA, and on October 16 its army spokesman said it would reopen if the United States leaves the region, per CBS News. On October 18 foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran's seven-day plan is still on the table and urged Washington to accept it: the strait would reopen on the sixth day if the US meets Iran's conditions, with talks on a final deal on the seventh, per Reuters; Iran also threatened enormous damage if it is attacked. Iran's navy says more "violating" tankers have caught fire east of the strait, which no maritime authority has confirmed, and Reuters reported on October 16 that Iran has shipped some LPG and jet fuel since July despite the blockade. On October 17 the Guard said two supertankers hit mines and caught fire, per Reuters, and from the evening of October 18 Iranian media claimed another, per Mehr; no maritime authority has confirmed any of them. US Central Command said the vast majority of Iran's attempted attacks fail, and the US military said 97% of ships cross the strait safely. The IMO's chief urged ships to avoid the strait, per Xinhua, and the IMO put the number of trapped seafarers at about 6,000, per Fox News, and on October 19 a tanker was hit off Saudi Arabia's Gulf coast and her crew evacuated, per Naharnet. On October 20 the Guard said two more "violating" tankers hit mines in the strait and caught fire, and that it shot down a US MQ-9 drone, its 54th claimed; no maritime authority or US Central Command has confirmed either. UKMTO logged a report of a tanker incident involving military forces about 121 nautical miles east of Duqm, Oman, and Iran's strait authority says its non-compliance list now holds about 120 vessels, up from 82 at the start of October. On October 21 UKMTO said a projectile hit a tanker about 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman, with her crew safe, and a Revolutionary Guard official said Iran could target the undersea internet cables in the strait if Iran is attacked. Brent touched $110 on October 16, per CNBC, settled at $109.86 that day, was near $108 on October 19 and traded near $111 on October 20, per our own feed. On October 15 missiles hit the presidential palace in Aden, killing five, per Al Jazeera, and Yemen's government blamed the Houthis.

2. The nine largest container carriers

   5 of the top 9 container lines by global TEU say they have stopped using the strait; 1 of those has an advisory from the last 60 days, the count our verdict uses.

3. Gulf crude and LNG shippers

   Tanker and gas operators whose only sea route to market crosses the chokepoint; bypass pipelines cover only about 60% of normal Hormuz crude flow on paper.

Who brokered it.

The diplomatic track that produced the reopening framework.

1. Pakistan

   Primary broker of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, the framework the US and Iran signed to reopen the strait and end the blockade; Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt also facilitated. The framework did not hold: the ceasefire collapsed on July 8, and since late September Qatar has carried messages between Tehran and Washington. The full diplomatic timeline is on the peace-talks page.

2. Oman

   A longstanding back-channel between Washington and Tehran, and the lead mediator on the shipping-corridor question since the June 17 framework collapsed. Oman has proposed splitting traffic into two corridors: a southern route through Omani waters open on pre-war terms, and a northern route through Iranian waters requiring Tehran's prior approval, with no tolls attached. On July 28 Oman went further and handed Tehran a regionally backed plan to manage the whole strait jointly, funded by voluntary contributions for navigational safety, environmental protection and search and rescue on the model of the Strait of Malacca, under which Iran would not hold sole control. Iran rejected it on national-security grounds and countered with a split that keeps one lane wholly inside Iranian waters and gives Muscat part, but not all, of the other. A regional meeting Oman had set for Salalah on September 14 was postponed, and although Tehran says it has agreed a corridor with Muscat, Oman hasn't confirmed one. The corridor talks remain unresolved, and Oman's position is complicated by Iran having struck Omani soil.

Who measures it.

The data authorities of record. Straits surfaces their figures with provenance; these are the primary sources behind the numbers.

1. IMF PortWatch

   Daily commercial transit count of record. Latest reading: 4 vs roughly 85 per day before the crisis.

2. Lloyd's Joint War Committee (JWC)

   Sets the listed-area war-risk posture that drives insurance pricing and, in turn, whether transit is commercially viable.

3. US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

   Source of record for oil prices, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and Cushing stocks tracked across the site.

4. US Treasury OFAC

   Maintains the SDN sanctions list cross-referenced against live AIS positions to flag sanctioned-vessel transits.

Who pays for it.

The economies most dependent on Hormuz-borne crude and LNG, ranked by import exposure.

1. Japan, South Korea, China, India

   The Asian importers carrying the highest dependence on Middle East crude and Qatari LNG routed through the strait.

2. European Union

   Exposed through LNG supply and the Asia to Europe shipping legs now rerouting around the Cape.