Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker & Monitor, updated 07 OCT 2026 · 1649Z
Closed.
to commercial shipping · by war-risk insurance
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries close to a fifth of the world’s oil. This page tracks, live, whether ships are getting through. New here? Start here →
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is under fresh attack, disrupting transit, and the latest official PortWatch count is 4 vessels on October 4 at 5% of typical as Tehran's open-market dollar mid, implied from the dirham rate, trades at 263,075 toman, up 3.2% on the week; crisis pressure at 88 (extreme).
Auto-composed from the live figures · not hand-written
DisruptedStrait under attack
The stakes
Pump figure modeled from live Brent · odds market-implied · not forecasts
vs pre-crisis ~$72 +41.5%
Stale · 2h
Hormuz Indexv0.7.7
How this is computed →Our two 0–100 gauges: how disrupted the strait is right now, and how much escalation markets price in. Read the second as a direction of travel, not a forecast for any fixed day.
On OCT 4, IMF PortWatch's most recent published day, commercial transit through the Strait reached 5% of the pre-crisis vessel count: 4 vessels against a typical 85 per day. Iran says the Strait remains closed; reports say ships are still transiting. PortWatch's weekly count runs days behind, so it can't yet confirm or rule that out. War-risk insurance for tankers prices at 30.0× pre-crisis on the latest trade-press read, with 6 P&I clubs withdrawing cover. Brent has moved +3.71% in the past twenty-four hours.
Commercial transits
OCT 4 · vs typical 85/day
4
contested · see note
Throughput
% of pre-crisis typical
5%
contested · see note
War-risk insurance
VLCC ≈ $10.0M
The cost to insure one supertanker for the passage, vs peacetime.
30.0×est.
+2900% vs pre-crisis
PortWatch counts AIS-broadcasting crossings only. Tankers crossing with transponders off are not counted, and trade press reports such crossings, so true flow runs higher than the figure above.
- 01
Brent stood at $101.87, up 3.71% over 24 hours, as of 14:38 UTC; IMF PortWatch recorded 4 transits on 2026-10-04, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day.
Situation
Reuters reports an Iranian official has said 'illegal routes' in the strait will soon be blocked, a declaration that sits alongside the operational reality captured by the Financial Times: tanker captains are earning $100,000 a month in risk pay as freight rates soar 26-fold, indicating some transits continue. The closure picture is contested between those two positions, and this site's verdict on carrier posture remains a cautious closed. gCaptain and Al Jazeera report Houthi forces attacked Aden airport as fighting intensifies in Yemen, with Saudi forces downing a missile near Riyadh. IMF PortWatch recorded 4 transits on 2026-10-04, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day. Brent stood at $101.87, up 3.71% over 24 hours, as of 14:38 UTC. Fifty-three events have been indexed in the last 24 hours. As of 14:50 UTC, 155 AIS-visible vessels were holding position away from berth in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf watch box, a count that leaves out ships within 25km of a working port. On the Hormuz Index, Crisis Pressure, the state composite, sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with its value set by physical transit deviation alone; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band, flat over 24 hours, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as its top contributor.
AI-assisted · refreshed daily at 12:00 UTC · more often in crisisAll briefs →
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I.
At sea.
Live vessel mix, dark tankers, the carriers who have suspended Hormuz transits, and a rolling reading of stranded-vessel pressure.
Surface effects
Container carriers.
CarriersThe nine largest container carriers by global TEU capacity, with their declared posture for Strait of Hormuz transit and the surcharge applied to twenty-foot equivalent units rerouted via the Cape. The surcharge and stranded-vessel figures are indicative editorial estimates, not contracted rates or confirmed tallies; each row links to the carrier’s own advisory.Posture key: Rerouting means Hormuz calls dropped but cargo still moving, via the Cape or escorted convoys; Suspended means no transits and no reroute announced. A carrier’s own advisory may say “suspended” about its Hormuz calls while we class the line as rerouting because its cargo still sails.Read the Hormuz figure, not the posture counts, for whether the strait is being used. Most of these lines moved Asia–Europe services to the Cape of Good Hope, which is a Red Sea decision and says nothing about Hormuz. 4 of 9 advisories describe stopping Hormuz or Gulf service, 0 describe reduced or escorted service still running, and 5 make no claim about the strait either way. The verdict counts only advisories from the last 60 days: that’s 1 of the 4, not all 4.
Hormuz stopped
4
of 9 · 1 in the verdict · 0 limited · 5 unstated
Rerouting
8
0 suspended
Stranded
n/a
no carrier count from the last 60 days
- 01
MSC
Mediterranean Shipping Company routes Asia–Europe services via the Cape of Good Hope. Its March advisory suspended Middle East bookings and told ships in the area to shelter; it has published no vessel count since.
MSC · Customer advisory, March 2026 →Rerouting$1.2k/TEUsince MAR 4 - 02
Maersk
Maersk has suspended bookings to Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Gulf ports, Jordan and most UAE ports. It discharges at Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, outside the strait, and moves cargo overland to Jebel Ali, and it charges USD 1,000 a container on any vessel that transits the Strait of Hormuz, on top of an Emergency Freight rate. Its Update 46 of 11 September 2026 sets that rate at USD 1,800 per 20-foot dry container, USD 3,000 per 40-foot dry container and USD 3,800 per reefer, special or dangerous-goods container, on cargo loading from or bound for Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia (Dammam and Jubail), Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Oman (except Salalah). The surcharge figure shown is the USD 1,000 per-container transit fee, not the Emergency Freight rate. It said on 25 June that three of its vessels remained in the Gulf.
Maersk · Middle East Operational Update 46 →Rerouting$1.0k/TEUsince MAR 2 - 03
CMA CGM
CMA CGM has activated Cape of Good Hope routing for all Asia–Europe services. Its chief financial officer said on the second-quarter earnings call on 30 July that eight of its vessels were inside the Gulf and unable to exit through the strait.
CMA CGM Q2 earnings call, via WorldCargo News →Rerouting$950/TEUsince MAR 58 stranded as of JUL 30 - 04
COSCO
COSCO Shipping has suspended bookings to Bandar Abbas and routes Europe-bound services via the Cape. Two of its container ships crossed the strait in late March with Iranian clearance; it has not published a Gulf posture or vessel count since.
WorldCargo News →Limited$600/TEUsince MAR 15 - 05
Hapag-Lloyd
Hapag-Lloyd has suspended Hormuz transits and reroutes via the Cape. By 1 July it had moved all four of its vessels out of the Gulf.
WorldCargo News →Rerouting$1.1k/TEUsince MAR 30 stranded as of JUL 1 - 06
ONE
Ocean Network Express suspended new bookings to and from the Persian Gulf on 2 March 2026, citing safety for crew, vessels and cargo. No advisory newer than that has been found.
ONE · Temporary Suspension of Bookings to and from the Persian Gulf, 2 March 2026 →Rerouting$900/TEUsince MAR 2 - 07
Evergreen
Evergreen Marine suspended new bookings to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia (except Jeddah) and Iraq's Umm Qasr port on 5 March 2026, citing crew and vessel safety. No advisory newer than that has been found.
Container News, 5 March 2026, citing Evergreen Marine advisory →Rerouting$850/TEUsince MAR 5 - 08
HMM
HMM declared a service deviation for cargo linked to the Arabian Gulf, Red Sea and Horn of Africa on 13 March 2026 and said it would invoke its bill of lading rights over affected shipments. No advisory newer than that has been found.
Container News, 13 March 2026, citing HMM advisory →Rerouting$800/TEUsince MAR 13 - 09
Yang Ming
Yang Ming revised its GS2 service on 26 March 2026 and said on 20 April that ships bound for Middle East ports beyond Sohar, Oman would discharge at Khor Fakkan instead, with normal routing to resume once conditions allow. No advisory newer than that has been found.
Container News, 20 April 2026, citing Yang Ming advisory →Rerouting$750/TEUsince MAR 26
AIS pulse.
AIS pulseStranded-vessel count suppressed · AIS feed quiet, no fresh aggregate
Per-port pressure across 4 Gulf and bypass ports (counts, tanker mix, congestion scores) at the ports page →
Per-port pressure across Gulf and bypass ports is at the ports page; sanctioned-vessel cross-referencing at the sanctioned-vessels page; pipeline bypass capacity at the pipelines page; LNG cargo exposure and the country-level demand at risk at the LNG-supply page; the Cape of Good Hope reroute mix at the reroute page; and peer-chokepoint comparison at the chokepoints page.
II.
Markets.
Prediction-market odds on duration and probability of a wider regional war, and Iran's open-market currency under pressure.
What the market expects.
Prediction marketsImplied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket: public, dollar-weighted markets where traders price contracts on Hormuz, Iran, and broader Middle East outcomes. Forward-looking where the rest of the page is backward-looking.
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket$14.3M volcloses 31 Dec 2026
18%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)Kalshi3.1M contractscloses 1 Jan 2027
13%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? (Before Nov 1, 2026)Kalshi2.1M contractscloses 1 Nov 2026
3%
market price
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Polymarket$1.9M volcloses 31 Oct 2026
2%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? (Before Jul 1, 2027)Kalshi1.6M contractscloses 1 Jul 2027
47%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? (Before Dec 1, 2026)Kalshi1.3M contractscloses 1 Dec 2026
7%
market price
Currency pressure
Tehran open-market rate.
Iranian toman263,075
Toman per USD · Tehran open-market mid
Buy 261,750Sell 264,400
Implied from the UAE dirham rate at the 3.6725 peg.
24h -1.96%7d +3.24%
The black-market USD rate Tehran’s trading houses quote when transacting. The government’s official rate is an administratively set, subsidized rate that sits far below what the open market charges and is not a price most Iranians can actually buy dollars at; the figure above is the rate they pay.
Watch this number when headlines break. The rial tends to move ahead of Brent on Iran escalation: capital flight into hard currency is faster than the oil futures re-pricing the same risk.
Downstream trade-diversion impact (the extra voyage time, the fleet-capacity squeeze, and the countries most exposed to a prolonged reroute) at the Cape reroute page. War-risk insurance dynamics, how the JWC listing translates into premium multiples and lay-up clauses, at the war-risk insurance page; and how a Brent spike propagates to retail gasoline, diesel, and container freight at the oil-price impact page.
III.
Events.
The indexed chronology of strikes, maritime incidents, formal closures, and diplomatic activity that defines this crisis.
Recent events.
Chronology- 01
Closure
Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until Iran’s demands are met: IRGC advisor
Tehran, IRNA – A senior advisor to the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it, adding that this situation will continue until Iran’s le…
- 02
Military
Attacks on Tankers in Hormuz Hit Highest of Any Week Since Start of Iran War, Sources Say
Attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest last week of any week since the Iran war began, according to maritime security sources tracking incidents, amid a bigger export push by Gulf producers.
- 03
Maritime
Ret. Lt. General: 'Not only' Strait of Hormuz threatened but also another key shipping waterway
- 04
Closure
Iranian official says ‘illegal routes’ in Strait of Hormuz to soon be blocked
- 05
Diplomatic
Rubio states that the Iranian regime has 'lost complete control' of the Strait of Hormuz as the flow of oil returns to normal
- 06
Military
Secretary of State Rubio: Iran has lost control of Strait of Hormuz despite increasing attacks
- 07
Closure
IRGC adviser says Iran will close 'illegal routes' in Strait of Hormuz
- 08
Military
Video: Oman Evacuates Injured Crew Members From Oil Tanker Attacked In Strait Of Hormuz
Active negotiation tracks, mediators, and back-channel work at the peace-talks page.
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