Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker & Monitor, updated 11 SEP 2026 · 0505Z
Closed.
to commercial shipping · by war-risk insurance
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries close to a fifth of the world’s oil. This page tracks, live, whether ships are getting through. New here? Start here →
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is under fresh attack, disrupting transit as Brent rises 7.0% in 24 hours, and the latest official PortWatch count is 6 vessels on September 6 at 7% of typical; prediction markets pricing a return to normal at <1%; crisis pressure at 95 (extreme).
Auto-composed from the live figures · not hand-written
DisruptedStrait under attack
The stakes
Pump figure modeled from live Brent · odds market-implied · not forecasts
vs pre-crisis ~$72 +50.1%
Front-month futures · ~15 min delay
Hormuz Indexv0.6.0
How this is computed →Our two 0–100 gauges: how disrupted the strait is right now, and how much escalation markets price in. Read the second as a direction of travel, not a forecast for any fixed day.
On SEP 6, IMF PortWatch's most recent published day, commercial transit through the Strait reached 7% of pre-crisis volume: 6 vessels against a typical 85 per day. Iran says the Strait remains closed; the US reports vessels still transiting, so PortWatch's weekly AIS-based count likely understates current flow. War-risk insurance for tankers prices at 40.0× pre-crisis on the latest trade-press read, with 6 P&I clubs withdrawing cover. Brent has moved +6.99% in the past twenty-four hours.
Commercial transits
SEP 6 · vs typical 85/day
6
contested · see note
Throughput
% of pre-crisis typical
7%
contested · see note
War-risk insurance
VLCC ≈ $10.0M
The cost to insure one supertanker for the passage, vs peacetime.
40.0×est.
+3900% vs pre-crisis
PortWatch counts AIS-broadcasting crossings only. Vessels that stop transmitting are not captured, and most of that gap looks like ordinary reception loss rather than deliberate evasion, so true flow may run higher than the figure above.
- 01
BBC News and SBS report Houthi forces have seized the Red Sea port of Mokha, a development that tightens pressure on regional shipping corridors beyond Hormuz.
- 02
Iranian state media claim the IRGC struck a U.S. sea drone at the Hormuz entrance and separately captured a U.S. sail drone; neither claim has been independently corroborated.
- 03
The Strait of Hormuz closure picture remains contested: one report describes the strait as closed amid U.S.-Iran conflict, while PortWatch recorded 6 transits on 2026-09-06 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day.
Situation
The Strait of Hormuz and adjacent Red Sea corridors face compounding operational stress. BBC News and SBS report that Houthi forces have seized the strategic Red Sea port of Mokha, a move that further threatens the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint and adds a second axis of maritime disruption to the crisis. At Hormuz itself, the transit picture is contested: a report circulating across outlets describes the strait as effectively closed amid U.S.-Iran hostilities, while PortWatch's most recently published day (2026-09-06) shows 6 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day; those two data points are not necessarily contradictory, but neither settles the operational question. Iranian state media claim the IRGC struck a U.S. unmanned surface vessel at the strait's entrance and separately captured a U.S. sail drone; the U.S. has not been reported in this feed as confirming either claim, and both originate with Iranian state sources. The Maritime Executive separately reports two tankers were attacked on the Omani route. The oil price feed is currently dark and has not produced a print in over two hours; no price characterisation is possible. The site's Crisis Pressure composite sits in the extreme band, rising, with physical transit deviation as the top driver; the Escalation Forecast composite sits in the elevated band, also rising, with the Brent-WTI forward spread as the lead contributor. The two indices are diverging in band, reflecting that near-term physical disruption is outrunning the forward escalation signal.
AI-assisted · refreshed daily at 12:00 UTC · more often in crisisAll briefs →
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I.
At sea.
Live vessel mix, dark tankers, the carriers who have suspended Hormuz transits, and a rolling reading of stranded-vessel pressure.
Transits by type.
Vessel mixCurrently transiting vessels grouped by type. The headline transit count above conflates traffic that energy desks read differently: a Capesize bulker and a VLCC are not the same signal. 0 vessels in the window are not holding position, broken down here. Transit is the residual of the anchored test, so read it as a ceiling.
Tankers
Crude, products, LNG and chemical carriers.
0
00h04hCargo
Container, bulk, vehicle and general cargo.
0
00h04hOther
Passenger, fishing, tugs and unclassified traffic.
0
00h04hMilitary
Naval, coast-guard and law-enforcement vessels. A floor, not a census: warships routinely transit with AIS switched off.
0
00h04h
Sample mix · by port
Bandar Abbas
1 sample
Tankers0Cargo1Military0Other0Jebel Ali
7 sample
Tankers1Cargo3Military0Other3Khor Fakkan
10 sample
Tankers3Cargo7Military0Other0Fujairah
10 sample
Tankers5Cargo5Military0Other0Sohar
10 sample
Tankers5Cargo5Military0Other0
| Port | Tankers | Cargo | Military | Other | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandar Abbas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jebel Ali | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| Khor Fakkan | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Fujairah | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Sohar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Up to 10 expected, arriving, departing and in-port vessels sampled at each port. Used to estimate the type mix transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Surface effects
Container carriers.
CarriersThe nine largest container carriers by global TEU capacity, with their declared posture for Strait of Hormuz transit and the surcharge applied to twenty-foot equivalent units rerouted via the Cape. The surcharge and stranded-vessel figures are indicative editorial estimates, not contracted rates or confirmed tallies; each row links to the carrier’s own advisory.Posture key: Rerouting means Hormuz calls dropped but cargo still moving, via the Cape or escorted convoys; Suspended means no transits and no reroute announced. A carrier’s own advisory may say “suspended” about its Hormuz calls while we class the line as rerouting because its cargo still sails.Read the Hormuz figure, not the posture counts, for whether the strait is being used. Most of these lines moved Asia–Europe services to the Cape of Good Hope, which is a Red Sea decision and says nothing about Hormuz. 4 of 9 advisories describe stopping Hormuz or Gulf service, 3 describe reduced or escorted service still running, and 2 make no claim about the strait either way. The verdict counts only the first group.
Hormuz stopped
4
of 9 · 3 limited · 2 unstated
Rerouting
8
0 suspended
Stranded
41+
5/9 report vessels · 204K+ TEU from 3/9
- 01
MSC
Mediterranean Shipping Company is routing all Asia–Europe vessels via the Cape of Good Hope; Gulf calls limited to escorted convoys.
MSC · Newsroom →Rerouting$1.2k/TEUsince MAR 415 stranded109K TEU - 02
Maersk
A.P. Moller–Maersk has suspended new Strait of Hormuz transits and is rerouting Gulf-bound cargo via Jebel Ali transhipment with Cape diversions for Asia–Europe.
Maersk · News →Rerouting$1.0k/TEUsince MAR 214 stranded70K TEU - 03
CMA CGM
CMA CGM has activated Cape of Good Hope routing for all Asia–Europe services; spot rates up roughly 60% on affected lanes.
CMA CGM · News →Rerouting$950/TEUsince MAR 51 stranded - 04
COSCO
COSCO Shipping continues selective Gulf transits under convoy escort but has suspended bookings to Bandar Abbas; Cape rerouting in effect for Europe-bound.
COSCO Shipping Lines · Notices →Limited$600/TEUsince MAR 155 stranded - 05
Hapag-Lloyd
Hapag-Lloyd has suspended Hormuz transits and is rerouting via the Cape; surcharges layered on top of existing Red Sea contingency adders.
Hapag-Lloyd · Customer information →Rerouting$1.1k/TEUsince MAR 36 stranded25K TEU - 06
ONE
Ocean Network Express is routing Asia–Europe via the Cape; Gulf service suspended pending convoy availability.
ONE →Rerouting$900/TEUsince MAR 6 - 07
Evergreen
Evergreen Marine is diverting Asia–Europe loops via the Cape and has paused new Gulf bookings.
Evergreen Marine →Rerouting$850/TEUsince MAR 8 - 08
HMM
HMM has implemented Cape rerouting for Asia–Europe and is operating limited Gulf service through alliance partners.
HMM · Notices →Rerouting$800/TEUsince MAR 9 - 09
Yang Ming
Yang Ming Marine Transport has shifted Asia–Europe services to the Cape route in coordination with THE Alliance partners.
Yang Ming · Customer notices →Rerouting$750/TEUsince MAR 12
AIS pulse.
AIS pulseStranded-vessel count suppressed · AIS feed quiet, no fresh aggregate
Per-port pressure across 4 bypass ports (counts, tanker mix, congestion scores) at the ports page →
Per-port pressure across Gulf and bypass ports is at the ports page; sanctioned-vessel cross-referencing at the sanctioned-vessels page; pipeline bypass capacity at the pipelines page; LNG cargo exposure and the country-level demand at risk at the LNG-supply page; the Cape of Good Hope reroute mix at the reroute page; and peer-chokepoint comparison at the chokepoints page.
II.
Markets.
Prediction-market odds on duration and probability of a wider regional war, and Iran's open-market currency under pressure.
What the market expects.
Prediction marketsImplied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket: public, dollar-weighted markets where traders price contracts on Hormuz, Iran, and broader Middle East outcomes. Forward-looking where the rest of the page is backward-looking.
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket$11.2M volcloses 31 Dec 2026
17%
market price
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Polymarket$8.4M volcloses 30 Sept 2026
2%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026? (Before Oct 1, 2026)Kalshi3.0M contractscloses 1 Oct 2026
3%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)Kalshi2.6M contractscloses 1 Jan 2027
13%
market price
Reopening
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?Polymarket$2.1M volcloses 15 Sept 2026
<1%
market price
Reopening
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? (Before Jul 1, 2027)Kalshi1.5M contractscloses 1 Jul 2027
44%
market price
Currency pressure
Tehran open-market rate.
Iranian rial235,325
Toman per USD · Tehran open-market mid
Buy 234,150Sell 236,500
24h +0.60%7d +6.72%
The black-market USD rate Tehran’s trading houses quote when transacting. The government’s official rate is an administratively set, subsidized rate that sits far below what the open market charges and is not a price most Iranians can actually buy dollars at; the figure above is the rate they pay.
Watch this number when headlines break. The rial tends to move ahead of Brent on Iran escalation: capital flight into hard currency is faster than the oil futures re-pricing the same risk.
Downstream trade-diversion impact (share of world oil and LNG rerouted, average extra voyage days, and the countries most exposed) at the Cape reroute page. War-risk insurance dynamics, how the JWC listing translates into premium multiples and lay-up clauses, at the war-risk insurance page; and how a Brent spike propagates to retail gasoline, diesel, and container freight at the oil-price impact page.
III.
Events.
The indexed chronology of strikes, maritime incidents, formal closures, and diplomatic activity that defines this crisis.
Recent events.
Chronology- 01
Diplomatic
Iran and Gulf states will meet to secure deal for Strait of Hormuz shipping — FT
- 02
Diplomatic
Gulf foreign ministers to meet with Iranian FM in push to secure deal for Strait of Hormuz - report
- 03
Diplomatic
Iran, Gulf States to Hold Meeting on Hormuz Strait Agreement
- 04
Maritime
Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows
- 05
Maritime
Strait of Hormuz Vessel Transits Plunge Amid Tensions
- 06
Maritime
ADNOC continues LNG loading at Das Island as tankers go dark to navigate Strait of Hormuz disruptions
- 07
Maritime
Iran Deploys IRGC Officers to Yemen as Houthis Threaten Bab el - Mandeb Strait and Global Shipping
- 08
Maritime
Navigating the Flow: Decline in Vessel Transits at Strait of Hormuz
Active negotiation tracks, mediators, and back-channel work at the peace-talks page.
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