Peace talks at the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-nautical-mile chokepoint between Iran and the Musandam peninsula, carries roughly 25% of seaborne oil trade and 20% of the world’s LNG. Closure or sustained disruption forces shipping onto the Cape of Good Hope route, adding up to fourteen transit days; in past Gulf disruptions tanker spot rates have run two to four times their pre-disruption level. Diplomatic activity therefore moves both insurance premiums and the price of crude.

A breakthrough came on the Iran-US channel: on June 17, 2026, Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum, a 14-point framework brokered primarily by Pakistan, with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt also facilitating. It provided for reopening the strait toll-free for 60 days, ending the US naval blockade, and a 60-day ceasefire extension. The framework did not hold: within days the ceasefire frayed over its Article 5 terms, Iran re-declared the strait closed, and the US and Iran traded fresh strikes.

In early July Iran attacked commercial ships in the strait, the United States struck more than 80 Iranian targets and reimposed oil sanctions, and President Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8. Weeks of escalating strikes followed: US forces hit Iranian coastal cities and missile and drone sites near the strait, sent sea drones into combat against Iranian naval sites, reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports and tightened sanctions on Iran's shipping network, while Iran retaliated against US bases in Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, struck two UAE oil tankers with cruise missiles on July 14, attacked shipping off Oman, and re-declared the strait closed until further notice.

Diplomacy runs on an Oman-mediated track in Muscat, where Oman activated a southern shipping corridor inside its own territorial waters that vessels may use on pre-war terms, leaving a northern route through Iranian waters that still needs Tehran's approval. Ships briefly began crossing again along the Omani side under US naval escort, and Washington reported more than 8 million barrels of oil moved through in a single day with military help, but the route is contested: Iran criticised Oman's announcement, insists its memorandum with the United States gives it sole authority to designate approved lanes, and its Revolutionary Guard has warned it may act against ships using routes Tehran has not sanctioned, striking near the corridor to hold its leverage. The fee question runs alongside the corridor question. Oman has put a regional funding mechanism on the table, modelled on the Strait of Malacca, under which the ships that use the strait would contribute voluntarily towards navigational safety, pollution protection and search and rescue rather than pay a toll to anyone. Washington objects to any charge Iran would control, and a US official has said any war deal would carry no fees or tolls for passage at all, though that account rests on one unnamed source.

By mid-July the campaign was widening: US strikes reached deeper into Iran, including targets in the north, the US Navy disabled a tanker trying to run its blockade, and India ordered its shipping companies to stop deploying Indian seafarers through the strait as other owners were told the same. In the days that followed the picture darkened again rather than easing. The US Navy resumed its blockade in force, redirecting five commercial vessels and disabling one, and traffic through the strait fell to a new low as owners pulled back, leaving the Omani corridor open on paper but largely empty.

On July 17 an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan killed two American service members, which US Central Command confirmed, and Washington answered a day later with a fresh round of punitive strikes, carrying the bombing campaign into a second week and reaching Iranian port infrastructure including Chabahar, which Tehran condemned as a war crime. Tehran says the latest strikes killed about 50 people and injured 500. Tehran still says the strait stays shut until the United States accepts its terms and complies with the memorandum, President Trump disputes that it is closed at all, and the International Maritime Organization has warned owners the strait is too dangerous to transit, with roughly 6,000 seafarers still stranded in the Gulf.

By late July the war had spilled beyond the strait. US bombing ran through a thirteenth straight night, reaching coastal military sites and a power substation near the Bushehr nuclear plant, Iran answered with missile attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Jordan, and President Trump threatened to extend the strikes to Iranian bridges and power plants. On July 23 Yemen's Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea with missiles and drones, putting the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint at risk alongside Hormuz; Trump warned of "major military punishment" and said Washington would hold Iran responsible for any further Houthi attacks. Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel on July 23 for the first time since May. The southern corridor stays contested: Iran's Revolutionary Guard said a tanker that tried the route off Oman caught fire after an explosion and two vessels behind it turned back, even as a few supertankers slipped out of the Gulf.

In the last week of July the strikes stopped for three nights. The thirteen-night bombing run ended, US and Iranian forces held fire, and President Trump said he was giving diplomacy space. Oman is mediating: Bloomberg reports Iran and Oman are negotiating a restart of Hormuz shipping, Iran has opened a parallel channel with Saudi Arabia on strait security, and the Jerusalem Post reports, on sourcing it does not name, that the two sides are close to a deal to reopen. Tehran presents the Oman track as unrelated to Washington and still rules out direct talks with the United States, and its Revolutionary Guard says it turned back six ships, so on Iran's account the strait stays shut. Crossings are down about 90% and what traffic remains has shifted almost entirely to the Iranian route. Brent gave back the war premium over those days, falling from above $100 on July 23 to a one-week low in the mid $80s. The second front has not closed: Houthi forces claimed a strike on Saudi oil infrastructure, Red Sea tanker traffic sits at a multi-month low, and some Asia-bound cargoes are routing through Suez instead.

The pause broke on July 28. Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan that evening, aimed at the Muwaffaq Salti air base and at US Central Command's headquarters there. Accounts of the number differ: CNN reported four missiles, and Jordan's military said its air defences intercepted five. Central Command says the attack failed and that every missile was intercepted, and no casualties have been reported. The launch came hours after President Trump met Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House. The same day the diplomatic track stalled in the open: Oman handed Iran a regionally backed plan to manage the strait jointly, funded by voluntary contributions on the model of the Strait of Malacca and leaving Iran without sole control, and Iran rejected it on national-security grounds. Tehran countered with a plan that puts one lane wholly inside Iranian waters and gives Muscat part, but not all, of the other, and says the strait stays shut unless Oman accepts that arrangement. Brent, which had settled around $87, rose again after hours on news of the attack.

The United States answered on July 29, striking sites in Iraq alongside Saudi forces that Central Command says Tehran-backed militias had used to launch recent attacks. Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces say at least 20 of their members were killed and 32 wounded. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy claims it stopped three tankers in the strait after they ignored repeated warnings, an account carried by Iranian state media and not independently confirmed; the strait's traffic remains far below normal either way.

Overnight into July 30 the United States carried the response to Iran itself, in what Central Command called a heavy wave of strikes answering the missile attack on its forces in Jordan. Iranian state media say one strike killed a couple and their two-year-old child in a village on Qeshm Island, near the strait. The same day a drone hit two liquefied natural gas vessels docked at Damietta port on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, the first time the war has touched Egypt; no one has claimed the attack, and Iran's foreign minister denied involvement and warned against what he called false-flag operations. Saudi Arabia announced a Maritime Defense Alliance to protect shipping routes, with 14 countries backing it. Traffic, though, has begun to return: a QatarEnergy LNG tanker exited the strait on July 29, the first Qatari LNG transit in nearly three weeks, with Iranian media saying it had complied with Iran's transit rules, and market analysts estimate throughput has recovered to roughly a third of pre-war levels. Brent briefly topped $93 on the resumed strikes, then eased to around $90 as flows improved. Tehran still says the strait is closed and has vowed to punish what it calls the aggressor.

On August 1 the shipping war returned to the strait itself. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported two separate tanker incidents off Oman near the strait within hours of each other, one of them a vessel carrying natural gas; a tanker was struck by what was described as an unknown projectile. Kuwait said it intercepted Iranian drones aimed at a US base on its territory. Yemen's Houthis said they forced eight Saudi oil tankers to turn back, and several Saudi cargoes are now routing around Africa rather than through the Red Sea. Iran's top security official said continued US military pressure would tighten the closure of the strait and could extend it to other waterways. President Trump threatened further strikes to force the waterway open. The United States military publicly rejected Iran's claim that the strait is shut, saying ships are still transiting and putting the number rerouted at about 30. The physical picture is therefore contested: Tehran calls the strait closed, Washington calls it open, and the independent transit count that would settle it lags by more than a week.

On August 2 the war paused again, this time before the strikes rather than after them. President Trump called off a planned attack on Iran, said it would have been the biggest attack since the Second World War, and credited Gulf leaders, among them Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with asking him for a deal instead. He said the outline of one had been agreed, covering the immediate and complete opening of the strait and an end to what he called Iran's nuclear threat, and that talks would resume on Monday afternoon. Tehran contradicted him within hours and again on August 3. Its foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said Iran is not negotiating with the United States at this time, that its talks are with Oman over a temporary route, and that the strait will in no way return to the state it was in before February 28. Iran's acting defence minister called the stand-down psychological warfare. Iran says the Oman talks are in their final stage and that it wants a lane that is neither the northern nor the southern one, but it also says an agreement with Muscat alone cannot reopen the strait. Nothing has been signed, and Al Jazeera reported no breakthrough. The attacks on shipping did not stop for the pause: the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile off Oman's Musandam peninsula, its engine room damaged and the vessel left not under command, and a second tanker reporting a large explosion in the water close by, with no casualties and nobody named as responsible. Iran's Fars news agency, which is tied to the Revolutionary Guard, said ships were stuck in the northern corridor over the weekend. Brent fell about seven dollars across the two days, from $90 on August 1 to the low $80s, its steepest fall since the fighting resumed in July.

In the first days of August the diplomacy moved, though only on the Iran and Oman side. Tehran says its talks with Muscat are in the final stage of drafting: the two countries have agreed the geographic coordinates of a transit route running partly through Iranian and partly through Omani waters, entry and exit points included, and a joint statement is being drafted. Iran's deputy foreign minister said understanding had been reached on almost all issues, Al Jazeera reports the route would run for roughly two to four months with the existing temporary corridors closing, and President Trump said a deal could be announced within the week. The unresolved part is Washington. Iran says the strait will not open until the United States ends its blockade; the United States has ruled out any arrangement that cements Iranian control of the strait; and reports citing unnamed sources say the draft would require Gulf-bound ships to coordinate with Tehran, which is the kind of control Washington rejects. Shipping industry groups warned against any transit fee regime that might come with the deal. So a deal is close on paper, and each side still needs the other to back down. US Central Command says its blockade of Iran's navy has so far redirected 48 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded two. The second front kept burning: Yemen's Houthis claimed their eighth attack on a Saudi tanker on August 5 and said they struck another with a ballistic missile in the Gulf of Aden a day later. Brent kept falling on the deal hopes and slipped below $80 on August 6, per our own feed.

On August 8 the United Arab Emirates said Iran had hit one of its ADNOC tankers with a missile inside the strait and accused Tehran of piracy. Nobody was hurt, Egypt condemned the attack, and Iran has not admitted to it. A day later a Liberian-flagged crude tanker, the Mt France C, was struck in the strait with five Indian crew aboard. While ships were being hit, Iran put a price on reopening: it set out a list of conditions and passed them to Washington through foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, with outlets differing on whether there are five or six. The Revolutionary Guard said the strait stays shut until the United States meets every one. Iran's foreign minister added that the deal with Oman, which both sides still call close, does not by itself reopen the waterway, and Tehran says no talks with Washington are under way. So the week ends with a deal near on paper, further off in practice, and tankers still being struck while it is argued over. Brent gave back its fall, trading near $83.55 on August 9 after slipping below $80 three days earlier, per our own feed. The Guardian reported crews who have been stuck in the Gulf since February.

On August 10 and 11 the price of reopening became the whole story, and the two sides told it differently. Iran's foreign ministry said the strait will not reopen while the United States keeps its naval blockade in place, and Reuters reported that Iran's security council had confirmed the closure holds until Washington meets Iran's conditions. Iranian officials set those conditions out publicly for the first time, and reporting puts sanctions relief and war reparations among them. Al Jazeera said both governments arrived at the Hormuz talks with new conditions. Against that, one outlet reported the two sides were nearing a deal, and Pakistan said they were close to some form of agreement, an account carried by Iranian state media; neither is confirmed, and the market read the day the other way, with traders calling the reopening hopes faded. The shooting did not pause for the argument. The Wall Street Journal reported that US forces fired on a Panama-flagged ship that tried to cross the blockade of Iranian ports. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre logged an incident involving a container ship and military forces in the Gulf of Oman on August 11, and a separate report of a vessel hit by a missile in the same waters rests on one Indian outlet and is not confirmed. Four crew were killed in a Houthi attack on a ship at Bab el-Mandeb, keeping the second chokepoint in the war. Traffic stayed near its floor: news counts put six or seven vessels in the strait, and the last complete day IMF PortWatch has published, August 8, holds 8 crossings against a pre-crisis 73. Barrels are still moving around the closure rather than through it, with Bloomberg counting about a dozen ships transferring oil ship to ship outside the strait. Brent rose back above $89 as the deal hopes faded, trading near $88.60 on August 11, about five dollars above where it sat two days earlier, per our own feed. Uniper's chief executive told Reuters gas prices stay high for as long as the strait is shut.

A durable reopening now depends first on the hostilities stopping for good, then on a workable transit settlement. Two tracks are open at once and they do not agree with each other: Washington says a direct US-Iran round resumed on August 3, Tehran says it is not negotiating with Washington at all, and the Oman-mediated corridor talks in Muscat continue either way.

What we index here are the public-facing signals: announced negotiation rounds, leaks of position papers, mediator press conferences, and ceasefire declarations. We do not speculate on private channels.