Gas prices
What the strait costs at the pump.
US regular-grade gasoline averages, refreshed hourly. Pump prices start to follow a Brent move within days. A 1% move in crude lifts them about 0.5% within four weeks, close to the full long-run effect (Dallas Fed). That’s long enough to see the move forming, short enough that a sustained Hormuz disruption shows up at consumers before any national policy response.
Average of state prices · live
$4.39
regular grade · /gallon · 50 states + DC
straits.live average of AAA state data, not AAA’s own national figure
Brent today
$104.03/bbl
At full pass-through, a $10 move in Brent is about $0.24 a gallon, because a barrel is 42 gallons. Pump prices usually move by less at first: they start to respond within days, and Dallas Fed research finds a 1% move in crude lifts pump prices about 0.5% within four weeks, close to the full long-run effect. The pass-through is asymmetric: increases tend to arrive faster than decreases, a phenomenon refiners and retailers know as "rockets and feathers."
If Brent spikes again
A further crude spike puts US gas near $5.07 a gallon.
$5.07/gallon
Range $4.76–$5.38, depending on the size of the crude spike.
Scenario, not a forecast
- Today's average of state prices$4.39
- Added at the pump (mid case)+$0.69 /gal
- Assumed Brent spike15–40%
- Brent today$104.03 /bbl
- Pass-through rule$0.024 /gal per $1/bbl
We take today’s national average and add the pump pass-through of a 15–40% Brent spike, the range a credible sustained closure has produced in the first week. Actual prices depend on how long a closure holds, SPR releases, and refinery runs. The pass-through is asymmetric: increases arrive faster than decreases.
Highest five states
- California$6.31-$0.08 7d
- Hawaii$5.64+$0.02 7d
- Washington$5.45-$0.03 7d
- Nevada$5.44-$0.04 7d
- Alaska$5.02-$0.01 7d
Lowest five states
- Georgia$3.81-$0.04 7d
- Texas$3.82-$0.09 7d
- Ohio$3.89+$0.01 7d
- Indiana$3.92+$0.18 7d
- Mississippi$3.93-$0.01 7d
How a Hormuz closure reaches the pump
Three steps, about a month.
01
Crude shock at the global benchmark.
Brent is the world price. Historical precedent suggests a credible Hormuz closure typically produces a 15–40% Brent spike within the first week, regardless of the buyer's geography. Even the United States (functionally self-sufficient on crude) prices its products against Brent.
02
Refining and freight tighten.
Cape-route freight rates spike because tanker supply is fixed. Bunker fuel rises. Refining margins compress on Hormuz-specific grades. US Gulf Coast refiners configured for medium-sour crude switch to substitutes at operational cost.
03
Pump prices move.
Pump prices start to move within days, and a 1% move in crude lifts them about 0.5% within four weeks, close to the full long-run effect (Dallas Fed). The asymmetry (faster up than down) is well documented. SPR drawdowns can blunt the upside, but a sustained closure exceeds the SPR's daily release capacity within weeks.