Gas prices
What the strait costs at the pump.
US regular-grade gasoline averages, refreshed hourly. Pump prices typically lag Brent crude moves by one to two weeks: long enough to see the move forming, short enough that a sustained Hormuz disruption shows up at consumers before any national policy response.
Average of state prices · live
$4.45
regular grade · /gallon · 50 states + DC
straits.live average of AAA state data, not AAA’s own national figure
Brent today
$103.28/bbl
Based on recent pass-through behavior, every $10 move in Brent translates to roughly $0.24 per gallon at the US pump over one to two weeks. The pass-through is asymmetric: increases tend to arrive faster than decreases, a phenomenon refiners and retailers know as "rockets and feathers."
If Hormuz fully closes
A full closure puts US gas near $5.13 a gallon.
$5.13/gallon
Range $4.82–$5.44, depending on the size of the crude spike.
Scenario, not a forecast
- Today's national average$4.45
- Added at the pump (mid case)+$0.68 /gal
- Assumed Brent spike15–40%
- Brent today$103.28 /bbl
- Pass-through rule$0.024 /gal per $1/bbl
We take today’s national average and add the pump pass-through of a 15–40% Brent spike, the range a credible sustained closure has produced in the first week. Actual prices depend on how long a closure holds, SPR releases, and refinery runs. The pass-through is asymmetric: increases arrive faster than decreases.
Highest five states
- California$6.39+$0.19 7d
- Hawaii$5.60+$0.04 7d
- Nevada$5.51+$0.15 7d
- Washington$5.51$-0.04 7d
- Oregon$5.06$-0.04 7d
Lowest five states
- Indiana$3.83$-0.15 7d
- Texas$3.93$-0.03 7d
- Mississippi$3.98$-0.01 7d
- Louisiana$3.99$-0.04 7d
- Tennessee$4.00$-0.07 7d
How a Hormuz closure reaches the pump
Three steps, two to four weeks.
01
Crude shock at the global benchmark.
Brent is the world price. Historical precedent suggests a credible Hormuz closure typically produces a 15–40% Brent spike within the first week, regardless of the buyer's geography. Even the United States (functionally self-sufficient on crude) prices its products against Brent.
02
Refining and freight tighten.
Cape-route freight rates spike because tanker supply is fixed. Bunker fuel rises. Refining margins compress on Hormuz-specific grades. US Gulf Coast refiners configured for medium-sour crude switch to substitutes at operational cost.
03
Pump prices move.
Pass-through to retail gasoline lands within two to four weeks. The asymmetry (faster up than down) is well documented. SPR drawdowns can blunt the upside, but a sustained closure exceeds the SPR's daily release capacity within weeks.