Strait of Hormuz update: 05 JUN 2026 · 2331Z
Closed.
Carriers are still rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, but commercial convoys are moving through the Strait of Hormuz under naval escort as Brent rises 3.1% in 24 hours, though the latest official PortWatch count is from May 31 as the Goreh-Jask Pipeline bypass runs partial with crisis pressure at 94 (extreme) and escalation probability at 62 (high).
Auto-composed from the live figures · not hand-written
Contestedconvoys under escort · ~75 Gulf arrivals/24h · 10 via PortWatch (May 31)
vs pre-crisis ~$72 +36.5%
Futures continuous · ~15 min delay
Hormuz Indexv0.3.3
How this is computed →On MAY 31, IMF PortWatch's most recent published day, commercial transit through the Strait reached 11% of pre-crisis volume: 10 vessels against a typical 95 per day. War-risk insurance for tankers now prices at 8.0× pre-crisis, with 6 P&I clubs withdrawing cover. Brent has moved +3.12% in the past twenty-four hours.
Commercial transits
MAY 31 · vs typical 95/day
10
−85 vs pre-crisis
Throughput
% of pre-crisis typical
11%
−89pp vs pre-crisis
War-risk insurance
VLCC ≈ $2.5M
8.0×est.
+700% vs pre-crisis
- 01
Renewable-energy analysts warn the Hormuz crisis accelerates sovereign investment in solar and wind as oil-supply weaponization reaches its strategic limits.
- 02
Brent crude climbed +3.13% in 24 hours to $98.29, with the Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure holding at 94 (extreme) and 317 vessels anchored or stopped in the region.
- 03
PortWatch recorded just 10 transits on 2026-05-31, versus a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day, while a separate scraper counted 95 scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports under a different methodology.
Situation
The Strait of Hormuz remains the epicenter of a severe supply disruption, with the Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure index at 94 (extreme), driven primarily by physical transit deviation. The divergence between that state reading and the 30-day Escalation Forecast of 62 (high) is significant: present conditions are more dangerous than the forward outlook implies, suggesting markets are pricing in some probability of diplomatic resolution even as the operational reality stays dire. Brent crude rose +3.13% in 24 hours to $98.29, reflecting tightening physical supply, with 317 vessels currently anchored or stopped in the region. PortWatch's most recently published data, for 2026-05-31, recorded just 10 transits through the strait; the pre-crisis baseline stands at 95 per day. Separately, scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports reached 95 vessels, though that figure uses a different methodology and cannot be equated to PortWatch throughput. Against that backdrop, a newly prominent strand of analysis argues that the crisis is hastening the strategic case for renewables: solar and wind capacity cannot be blockaded, a point increasingly cited by energy-security planners. Meanwhile, Mercuria's government-brokered passage deals, U.S. naval interdictions in the Indian Ocean, and Iranian warnings that prompted U.S. destroyer withdrawals toward the Indian Ocean all underscore that the corridor remains contested, commercially fragile, and diplomatically unresolved across 35 indexed events in the past 24 hours.
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I.
At sea.
Live vessel mix, dark tankers, the carriers who have suspended Hormuz transits, and a seven-day reading of stranded-vessel pressure.
Transits by type.
Vessel mixCurrently transiting vessels grouped by AIS type. The headline transit count above conflates traffic that energy desks read differently — a Capesize bulker and a VLCC are not the same signal. 60 vessels are currently in transit, broken down here.
Tankers
Crude, products, LNG and chemical carriers (AIS ship_type 80–89).
5
00h23hCargo
Container, bulk and general cargo (AIS ship_type 70–79).
9
00h23hOther
Passenger, fishing, tugs and unclassified traffic.
46
00h23hMilitary
Naval and law-enforcement vessels (AIS ship_type 35 / 55).
0
00h23h
Sample mix · by port
| Port | Tankers | Cargo | Military | Other | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandar Abbas | 4 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 31 |
| Jebel Ali | 12 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 33 |
| Khor Fakkan | 9 | 11 | 0 | 20 | 40 |
| Fujairah | 5 | 12 | 0 | 17 | 34 |
| Sohar | 16 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 40 |
Recent arrivals + departures sampled at each port. Used to estimate the type mix transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Tankers gone dark.
Dark-tanker count13
tankers · last 24h▲ vs 7d baseline 9.1
Tankers that were broadcasting actively on inside the strait core area and have stopped transmitting for between 3 and 24 hours. Tracked over 2,240 vessels in the bbox.
Baseline averages the count over the last 168 hourly samples.
Vessel list (JSON) →Match methodology →
AIS-derived · 25m agoSurface effects
Container carriers.
CarriersThe nine largest container carriers by global TEU capacity, with their declared posture for Strait of Hormuz transit and the surcharge applied to twenty-foot equivalent units rerouted via the Cape. The surcharge and stranded-vessel figures are indicative editorial estimates, not contracted rates or confirmed tallies; each row links to the carrier’s own advisory.
Suspended
0
Rerouting
8
Stranded
41
204K TEU
- 01
MSC
Mediterranean Shipping Company is routing all Asia–Europe vessels via the Cape of Good Hope; Gulf calls limited to escorted convoys.
MSC · Newsroom →Rerouting$1.2k/TEUsince MAR 415 stranded109K TEU - 02
Maersk
A.P. Moller–Maersk has suspended new Strait of Hormuz transits and is rerouting Gulf-bound cargo via Jebel Ali transhipment with Cape diversions for Asia–Europe.
Maersk · Customer advisories →Rerouting$1.0k/TEUsince MAR 214 stranded70K TEU - 03
CMA CGM
CMA CGM has activated Cape of Good Hope routing for all Asia–Europe services; spot rates up roughly 60% on affected lanes.
CMA CGM · News →Rerouting$950/TEUsince MAR 51 stranded - 04
COSCO
COSCO Shipping continues selective Gulf transits under convoy escort but has suspended bookings to Bandar Abbas; Cape rerouting in effect for Europe-bound.
COSCO Shipping Lines · Notices →Limited$600/TEUsince MAR 155 stranded - 05
Hapag-Lloyd
Hapag-Lloyd has suspended Hormuz transits and is rerouting via the Cape; surcharges layered on top of existing Red Sea contingency adders.
Hapag-Lloyd · Customer information →Rerouting$1.1k/TEUsince MAR 36 stranded25K TEU - 06
ONE
Ocean Network Express is routing Asia–Europe via the Cape; Gulf service suspended pending convoy availability.
ONE · News →Rerouting$900/TEUsince MAR 6 - 07
Evergreen
Evergreen Marine is diverting Asia–Europe loops via the Cape and has paused new Gulf bookings.
Evergreen Marine · News →Rerouting$850/TEUsince MAR 8 - 08
HMM
HMM has implemented Cape rerouting for Asia–Europe and is operating limited Gulf service through alliance partners.
HMM · Notices →Rerouting$800/TEUsince MAR 9 - 09
Yang Ming
Yang Ming Marine Transport has shifted Asia–Europe services to the Cape route in coordination with THE Alliance partners.
Yang Ming · Customer notices →Rerouting$750/TEUsince MAR 12
AIS pulse.
AIS pulseStranded vessels · 7d
268
anchored + stopped7d range 205–394▼ 68 vs 7d ago
Per-port pressure across 4 bypass ports — counts, tanker mix, congestion scores — at the ports page →
Per-port pressure across Gulf and bypass ports is at the ports page; sanctioned-tanker cross-referencing at the sanctioned-vessels page; pipeline bypass capacity at the pipelines page; LNG cargo exposure and the country-level demand at risk at the LNG-supply page; the Cape of Good Hope reroute mix at the reroute page; and peer-chokepoint comparison at the chokepoints page.
II.
Markets.
Prediction-market odds on duration and probability of a wider regional war, and Iran's open-market currency under pressure.
What the market expects.
Prediction marketsImplied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket — public, dollar-weighted markets where traders price contracts on Hormuz, Iran, and broader Middle East outcomes. Forward-looking where the rest of the page is backward-looking.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket$34.0M volcloses 31 Dec 2026
17%
market price
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Polymarket$15.0M volcloses 7 Jun 2026
2%
market price
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Polymarket$12.4M volcloses 15 Jun 2026
10%
market price
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Polymarket$11.4M volcloses 31 Dec 2026
6%
market price
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket$6.8M volcloses 31 Dec 2026
72%
market price
- Netanyahu out by June 30?
Polymarket$5.8M volcloses 30 Jun 2026
2%
market price
Currency pressure
Tehran open-market rate.
Iranian rial749,000
Toman per USD · Tehran open market
24h +1.01%7d +7.54%
The black-market USD rate Tehran’s trading houses quote when transacting. The Central Bank’s posted rate (42,000 Toman) has been frozen for years and is no longer a market price — the figure above is the rate Iranians actually pay.
Watch this number when headlines break. The rial tends to move ahead of Brent on Iran escalation — capital flight into hard currency is faster than the oil futures re-pricing the same risk.
Downstream trade-diversion impact — share of world oil and LNG rerouted, average extra voyage days, and the countries most exposed — at the Cape reroute page. War-risk insurance dynamics — how the JWC listing translates into premium multiples and lay-up clauses — at the war-risk insurance page; and how a Brent spike propagates to retail gasoline, diesel, and container freight at the oil-price impact page.
III.
Events.
The indexed chronology of strikes, maritime incidents, formal closures, and diplomatic activity that defines this crisis.
Recent events.
Chronology- 01
Military
US forces intercept drones launched by Iran toward Strait of Hormuz: CENTCOM
US forces intercept drones launched by Iran toward Strait of Hormuz: CENTCOM Anadolu Ajansı
- 02
Military
US shoots down Iranian drones launched toward Strait of Hormuz after Trump said 'we're straightening out a little unfinished business'
US shoots down Iranian drones launched toward Strait of Hormuz after Trump said 'we're straightening out a little unfinished business' New York Post
- 03
Military
US military says it shot down Iranian drones launched toward Strait of Hormuz, then struck surveillance radar sites
US military says it shot down Iranian drones launched toward Strait of Hormuz, then struck surveillance radar sites news8000.com
- 04
Military
US Says It Downed Four Iranian Drones Bound for Strait of Hormuz, Hit Radar Sites
US Says It Downed Four Iranian Drones Bound for Strait of Hormuz, Hit Radar Sites bloomingbit
- 05
Military
US-Iran Ceasefire Stalemate: Oil Prices, Strait of Hormuz, and Missile Capacity in Focus - News and Statistics
US-Iran Ceasefire Stalemate: Oil Prices, Strait of Hormuz, and Missile Capacity in Focus - News and Statistics IndexBox
- 06
Military
US military shot down Iranian drones launched toward Strait of Hormuz
US military shot down Iranian drones launched toward Strait of Hormuz yourvalley.net
- 07
Military
U.S. Shoots Down Iranian Drones Launched At Strait Of Hormuz: Official
U.S. Shoots Down Iranian Drones Launched At Strait Of Hormuz: Official The War Zone
- 08
Military
Iran Launches Drones Near Strait Of Hormuz, US Shoots Them Down
Iran Launches Drones Near Strait Of Hormuz, US Shoots Them Down News18
Active negotiation tracks, mediators, and back-channel work at the peace-talks page.
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