4 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under severe operational stress, with transit deviation now the single largest contributor to a Crisis Pressure reading of 94 (extreme) on the Hormuz Index composite. The 30-day Escalation Forecast sits at 62 (high), a figure driven primarily by Polymarket closure odds; the gap between a present-conditions rating of 94 and a forward-looking reading of 62 signals that markets and forecasters are pricing in some probability of de-escalation even as current conditions remain near-critical. On transits, the most recent IMF PortWatch published day (2026-05-31) recorded only 10 vessels, against a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day; scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports reached 129 vessels, a figure reflecting a different methodology and scope that should not be read as contradicting PortWatch. Reports that two-thirds of tankers are going dark to pass through the strait, combined with 273 vessels anchored or stopped, underscore the depth of commercial disruption. Brent's 2.15% decline to $95.32 suggests traders are discounting some near-term resolution, though Iran's insistence on linking any ceasefire to Lebanon and Hezbollah's rejection of US-brokered terms complicate that read. A 15-nation mine-clearance coalition crystallizing around British and French naval assets represents the most concrete multilateral response to date.