5 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is operating under severe operational stress following a direct drone-intercept exchange: CENTCOM confirmed US forces shot down 4 Iranian drones launched toward the strait, then struck Iranian radar installations in a follow-on action linked to Trump's public remarks about unfinished business with Iran. Physical throughput data reinforces the severity. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-05-31, recorded only 10 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day; scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports register 75 vessels, a figure derived from a different methodology and not directly comparable to PortWatch counts. A total of 308 vessels remain anchored or stopped across the region, and 40 events were indexed in the past 24 hours. Markets are pricing the escalation: Brent settled at $98.29, up +3.12% over 24 hours, with WTI at $95.96. The Hormuz Crisis Pressure composite stands at 94, in the extreme band, unchanged over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the primary driver. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite reads 62, in the high band, also flat over 24 hours, with Polymarket closure odds as its top contributor. The divergence between those two figures, a current-conditions extreme against a forward forecast that remains merely high, reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the drone exchange represents a ceiling or a floor.