7 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to US naval power following Thursday evening's large-scale IRGC operation, in which a combination of ballistic missiles, drones, and fast-attack speedboats struck or forced the withdrawal of three American destroyers — a result confirmed by US Central Command and claimed by Iranian officials as disabling four vessels in total. Commercial throughput reflects the severity: only 8 vessels are currently transiting against a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 60, while 25 ships remain anchored or stationary in surrounding waters, accumulating demurrage and insurance exposure by the hour. Brent crude dropped sharply to $103.49, a 9.13% single-session decline driven by the collapse of Trump's 'Project Freedom' initiative — the White House announced a pause in reopening efforts — and an IRGC statement promising 'safe, stable' transit once what it calls aggressor threats are neutralized, a formulation that implies conditional, Iran-administered passage rather than freedom of navigation. A French carrier strike group has transited Suez toward the Red Sea as part of a UK-French multinational mission, though its operational role in the strait remains undefined. Energy majors warn that even a negotiated settlement will leave supply chains depleted for weeks, as stored inventories continue drawing down and tanker repositioning lags any diplomatic timeline.