14 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains severely constricted, with transit volume at roughly 10% of its pre-conflict baseline and eleven vessels anchored or stopped in the approaches — conditions consistent with the largest supply disruption in recorded oil-market history. Brent's 6.50% single-session drop to $106.49 reflects not a resolution but a marginal softening of the supply shock: a handful of supertankers carrying unsanctioned crude have exited in recent days, and Iran has formally permitted a number of Chinese vessels to transit under what Tehran is framing as an Iranian naval management protocol. Two Japan-linked crude and LPG carriers also cleared the strait, following diplomatic engagement by Tokyo. The pattern points toward a tiered access regime rather than a reopening: vessels from states maintaining working relationships with Iran — China, Japan, India — are securing passage while the broader market remains locked out. Iran's foreign minister continues to characterize the disruption as a consequence of a U.S. blockade rather than Iranian restrictions, a framing that complicates diplomatic off-ramps. A UKMTO alert reporting an unauthorized boarding northeast of Fujairah and new attacks on vessels underline that physical risk remains acute. Trump-Xi discussions in Beijing on Thursday addressed the conflict but produced no public breakthrough on maritime access.