9 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively paralyzed: PortWatch's most recently published data, covering 2026-07-05, logged only 34 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day, and gCaptain reports tanker traffic has fallen to a near standstill as mutual US-Iran strikes on maritime infrastructure intensify. Scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports registered 644 vessels, a figure reflecting a different methodology and scope than PortWatch's strait-specific count and not directly comparable to it. Brent settled at $76.14, down -3.56% over the past 24 hours, with the price decline reflecting demand destruction fears and voyage cancellations rather than any easing of supply risk. The operational picture is dire: London marine insurers are fielding fewer inquiries and raising war-risk premiums, per gCaptain, while the IRGC has warned that foreigners have no stake in the strait and that shipping will resume only under Iranian arrangements, per Iranian state media. The Hormuz Crisis Pressure index stands at 89 (extreme), driven primarily by event pressure, with 31 indexed events in the last 24 hours. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite sits at 61 (high), three points lower than the prior reading, a divergence worth noting: present conditions are extreme while the forward outlook, weighted heavily by Polymarket closure odds, edges slightly less dire. The gap between those two numbers is the key uncertainty traders should price.

Recorded