15 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is the site of a direct and contested standoff: Iran has declared the waterway closed until the United States accepts its terms (Anadolu Ajansı), while the US, having reimposed a naval blockade following attacks on ships in the strait (AP News), reports evidence of continued transits and disputes the closure claim. The physical picture is ambiguous. PortWatch's most recent published figure, for 2026-07-12, recorded 10 transits, against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day. Separately, an independent scraper of Gulf-port arrivals logged 368 vessels in the most recent 24 hours, a figure derived from a different methodology and not directly comparable to the PortWatch count. The IRGC shot down a US Lucas drone over Bandar Abbas, per Iranian state media (IRNA), and the US launched additional strikes on Iran, per The Japan Times and Transport Topics. Reuters reports some commercial operators are refusing US military-escorted transits following recent attacks. Against this backdrop, Brent crude traded at $85.38, down just 0.07% over 24 hours, a muted reaction that analysts may read as either market exhaustion or confidence in alternative supply routes. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite stands at 91 (extreme), driven chiefly by physical transit deviation, while the 30-day Escalation Forecast sits at 64 (high), one point lower, with Polymarket closure odds its leading input. The divergence between these two readings reflects genuine uncertainty: conditions on the water are extreme, but longer-horizon positioning has marginally softened.