15 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is operating under a contested closure: Iranian state media and the IRGC declare the strait shut following what Tehran describes as a US violation of a prior ceasefire framework, while Washington and CENTCOM dispute that characterization, citing continued transits. PortWatch's most recent published data, for 2026-07-12, recorded 10 vessel transits through the strait, against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day. Separately, an independent scraper of Gulf-port arrivals logged 371 vessel arrivals across all Gulf ports in the most recent 24-hour window; the two figures use different methodologies and should not be compared directly. Physical transit deviation remains the top contributor to the Hormuz Crisis Pressure index, which reached 91 (extreme) overnight, up 2 points over 24 hours. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite sits at 65 (high), unchanged over 24 hours, with Polymarket closure odds as its lead driver; the divergence between the present-state reading and the forward-looking forecast reflects uncertainty about whether current intensity is sustained or peaks near-term. Brent fell 1.92% to $85.38, a counterintuitive move that traders are attributing to demand-side pressure and route-deviation hedging rather than complacency about supply risk. Trump separately announced Gulf investment deals in place of a proposed cargo fee, per Talk 99.5, though a renewed US blockade on Iranian ports was simultaneously reported by Reuters.