26 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains the center of acute operational disruption, with 514 vessels currently anchored or stopped in the region and scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports registering 77, far below the pre-crisis baseline of 95 transits per day. The most recent PortWatch published transit count, covering 2026-05-17, recorded just 2 vessels, underscoring how severely throughput has collapsed, though that figure carries a multi-day lag by design. Brent crude climbed +2.01% to $96.36 in the past 24 hours as fresh U.S. strikes near the strait shattered a nascent ceasefire; Iran has formally accused Washington of violations while U.S. Secretary of State Rubio indicated a deal could take days. The IRGC Navy separately announced that 25 commercial vessels transited under its coordination, a figure that, if sustained, would represent a fraction of normal traffic. Piper Sandler warned the strait could remain effectively closed for months, while Oman continues independent diplomatic engagement with Tehran. The Hormuz Index state composite sits at 94 (extreme), unchanged in 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as its top contributor; separately, the 30-day escalation forecast composite has jumped to 62 (high), up 25 points, driven by Polymarket closure odds. Those two readings measure different things: current operational stress is already extreme, and forward-looking probability of further escalation is rising sharply.