25 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally restricted but under active diplomatic management: Iran selectively allowed 32 ships through in a reported gesture tied to ongoing negotiations, while Gulf-port scraper data shows 111 vessel arrivals in the most recent 24 hours across broader Gulf destinations — a figure derived from an independent methodology that cannot be directly compared to PortWatch transit counts. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-05-17, recorded just 2 transits through the strait itself, against a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day, illustrating the scale of the physical chokepoint disruption. Brent crude reflects that disruption, adding +2.43% in 24 hours to close at $116.73, with WTI at $112.25. The Crisis Pressure index stands at 94 — extreme — unchanged over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation remaining the dominant contributor. That reading contrasts with the 30-day Escalation Probability forecast of 37, in the watchful band, which is anchored partly to Polymarket closure odds; the gap between an extreme present-state reading and a watchful forward probability captures the market's bet that diplomacy holds. On the policy track, Iran says indirect US talks center on ending the broader war, not nuclear issues; a senior Khamenei advisor simultaneously warned Iran would exit the NPT and break any naval blockade if attacked again. Iran also downed a drone near the strait using an indigenous interceptor, signaling it maintains active air-defense posture throughout negotiations.