28 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under extreme operational stress even as diplomatic signals flash cautiously positive. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-05-24, recorded just 4 transits through the strait, against a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day; that figure carries a multi-day lag by design, reflecting PortWatch's weekly Tuesday release cycle. Separately, an independent scraper tracking Gulf-port arrivals recorded 121 vessel arrivals in the most recent 24-hour window, a distinct methodology that cannot be directly compared to the PortWatch corridor count. The divergence between the two metrics underscores how fractured and hard-to-read traffic flows have become. With 403 vessels anchored or stopped across the region and six indexed incidents logged in the past 24 hours, the Hormuz Index state composite stands at 94 (extreme), with physical transit deviation as its top contributor. The 30-day escalation forecast sits at 62 (high), anchored in part by Polymarket closure odds; the gap between a present-state reading of extreme and a forecast reading of high reflects genuine uncertainty rather than comfort. On the policy front, Reuters reported Wednesday that Washington and Tehran have reached an outline ceasefire agreement pending approval, while the Royal Navy's RFA Lyme Bay departed Gibraltar for a potential multinational minehunting mission in the strait. Brent shed 1.37% over 24 hours to $92.48, a modest relief trade on the ceasefire headline, though the physical picture argues against complacency.