29 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains a choke point under severe operational stress: PortWatch's most recently published daily count, for 2026-05-24, recorded just 4 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day, while scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports registered 59 vessels using a distinct methodology that captures different traffic segments. These figures are not directly comparable, but together they confirm dramatically suppressed throughput. Some 345 vessels remain anchored or stopped in the wider Gulf area, and Chevron's CEO publicly confirmed ship attacks in the strait this week. The Hormuz Index state composite sits at 94 (extreme), unchanged over the past 24 hours, with physical transit deviation the top contributor; the separate 30-day escalation forecast reads 62 (high), driven primarily by Polymarket closure odds. The divergence between these two figures reflects real analytical uncertainty: current conditions are extreme, yet markets are not pricing in a near-certain path to further deterioration. Brent crude eased 0.70% over the past 24 hours to $91.59, with WTI at $87.76, suggesting traders are partially discounting diplomatic signals. Pakistan-sourced reports cite an Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding in progress, and a 60-day ceasefire extension has been floated, but U.S. naval warnings that non-compliant commercial vessels may be treated as hostile targets continue to cloud any near-term reopening scenario.