10 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz presents a sharply split operational picture this morning. Lloyd's List Intelligence data cited by USNI News shows commercial transits through the strait more than doubled between May and June, reaching at least 576 in June versus 233 in May, suggesting some operators are willing to run the route even under fire. Against that, INTERTANKO warns that tanker transits via the southern route have fallen to single digits following renewed fighting, per gCaptain. The physical transit picture is actively contested: Iranian state media and the IRGC have re-declared the strait closed and, per Mehr News, the IRGC chief commander has reiterated that avenging recent US-Israeli strikes is a firm and legitimate demand. The US and CENTCOM, however, report vessels continuing to move and see no evidence of an enforced closure. IMF PortWatch recorded 34 transits on 2026-07-05 (its most recent published day, now five days old, against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day); scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports reached 622 vessels in the latest window, though that figure uses a different methodology and scope and cannot be directly compared to PortWatch counts. The Hormuz Index state composite sits at 87, firmly in the extreme band, with war-risk insurance premiums the top pressure driver. The 30-day escalation forecast reads 61, in the high band, unchanged over 24 hours, with Polymarket closure odds the leading contributor. That divergence between an extreme present-state reading and a high but stable forward forecast suggests traders and underwriters are pricing sustained disruption rather than imminent resolution. Brent held near flat at $76.00, up just 0.03% on the day, indicating markets are not yet repricing for a worst-case closure scenario.