11 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally blockaded: six vessels in transit against a baseline of roughly sixty, eleven ships anchored or stopped in place, and nineteen discrete incidents logged in the past twenty-four hours alone. That operational paralysis drove Brent down 8.36% to $104.37 — a sharp single-session drop that reflects not optimism but demand destruction anxiety and liquidation by traders unwilling to hold exposure through an unresolved diplomatic standoff. WTI settled at $98.38, compressing the spread as Atlantic-basin supply anxiety eases relative to Gulf flow risk. On the diplomatic track, President Trump publicly declared the Iran ceasefire framework on 'life support,' even as Pakistan-mediated back-channel contacts continue between Tehran and Washington, with Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi briefing Saudi and Egyptian counterparts on the process. The Trump administration simultaneously escalated pressure, unveiling a new sanctions package targeting the IRGC's global oil network — a move Beijing directly rejected, vowing to shield Chinese firms from what it termed illegal unilateral measures. Downstream, the FAO warned that fertilizer scarcity stemming from the disruption will reduce harvests and tighten food supplies globally. Aramco's East-West pipeline is now running at maximum rated capacity, underlining both the strategic value and the finite relief that overland bypass infrastructure can provide.