12 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed to normal commercial traffic, with only 6 vessels transiting against a baseline of roughly 60 and 11 ships halted or anchored in the approaches. That operational paralysis drove Brent crude down 5.74% over the past 24 hours to $107.35, a move that reflects both demand destruction fears and the market pricing in a longer disruption horizon — the EIA now models the closure extending through late May. Thirty indexed events in the past 24 hours underscore an accelerating diplomatic and military tempo. The IRGC Navy has formally declared a 500-kilometer operational crescent stretching from Jask and Sirik to beyond Greater Tunb Island, effectively codifying Iranian jurisdiction over a vastly enlarged maritime zone. The UK is leading a 40-nation defensive coalition and has committed drones, fixed-wing aircraft, and a warship; the US claims operational control of the strait while simultaneously pushing a UN Security Council resolution that Russia and China have publicly opposed. Iran has dismissed both the UN initiative and renewed EU sanctions threats. Downstream consequences are widening: the FAO warns that fertilizer supply disruptions will depress harvests globally, and 13 Indian merchant vessels remain staged and waiting for a safe-passage window.