13 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed to commercial shipping, with only 6 vessels transiting against a pre-crisis baseline of approximately 60 and 11 ships anchored or stopped in surrounding waters — figures that reflect near-total disruption to a chokepoint normally carrying roughly 20% of global oil supply. Brent crude settled at $105.65, down 7.24% over the past 24 hours, a move that traders are attributing to diplomatic momentum rather than any restoration of physical passage: the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a 'sustainable' ceasefire framework, and Washington and Bahrain have tabled a draft UN Security Council resolution demanding Iran reopen the strait. The price signal, in other words, is running ahead of the operational reality. On the water, China-linked vessels — including a supertanker carrying two million barrels of Iraqi crude — have made rare transits through an Iranian-designated safe corridor, a development that coincided with the Trump-Xi summit and signals Beijing's ability to negotiate preferential access. Iran, meanwhile, is actively routing hydrocarbon exports via Caspian Sea connections and overland rail into China, partially insulating its revenue from the U.S.-enforced blockade. The United Kingdom has pledged a destroyer, Typhoon aircraft, autonomous mine-hunting systems, and unmanned surface vessels to a freedom-of-navigation mission contingent on a durable ceasefire. With 30 indexed events in the past 24 hours, the information environment remains dense and fast-moving; physical throughput has not yet confirmed the diplomatic optimism priced into crude markets.