21 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is operating at roughly 2% of its pre-crisis throughput: 2 vessels completed transit in the past 24 hours against a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day, and the site's Hormuz Crisis Pressure index stands at 92—rated extreme—with physical transit deviation cited as its top contributor. Brent crude has responded accordingly, adding +2.43% in the past 24 hours to close at $116.73, with WTI at $112.25. The gap between that extreme present-state reading and the 30-day Hormuz Escalation Probability forecast of 18—rated calm—reflects a market structure in which traders are pricing severe current disruption while prediction markets lean toward diplomatic resolution within the month. The diplomatic track is active: President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi both met Pakistani officials in Tehran to review indirect Iran-US negotiations, signaling that back-channel pressure remains engaged. On the operational side, Iran's IRGC Navy announced it coordinated passage for 31 commercial vessels over the past 24 hours—a figure that stands in sharp tension with the site's independently tracked transit count of 2, and points to a gap between IRGC-defined 'coordinated' movement and vessels fully clearing the strait. Iran's self-declared Persian Gulf Strait Authority has now published a formal geographic boundary for its oversight zone, institutionalizing checkpoint and fee arrangements that shipping and insurance desks must treat as a new baseline compliance layer.