30 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained operationally. The IRGC Navy reported coordinating passage for approximately two dozen ships in the past 24 hours, a figure consistent with two separate IRGC statements; scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports reached 75 vessels, though that count uses a different methodology and scope than IMF PortWatch data and should not be treated as equivalent. PortWatch's most recent published figure, for 2026-05-24, recorded just 4 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day, underscoring the structural depth of the disruption. The Hormuz Index state composite sits at 94 (extreme), unchanged over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor; the 30-day escalation forecast composite stands at 62 (high), driven by Polymarket closure odds. The divergence between those two readings matters: current physical conditions are extreme, while the forward probability of further escalation is elevated but not catastrophic, suggesting markets are pricing some diplomatic off-ramp. Brent fell -1.32% to $91.12 in the past 24 hours, a move likely reflecting Turkey's foreign minister stating a US-Iran agreement is closer than ever. Against that cautious optimism, US forces disabled at least one commercial vessel allegedly attempting to breach the blockade, India is evacuating 13 ships from the area, and 24 indexed events were recorded across the past 24 hours, keeping insurance and routing decisions highly pressured.