31 May 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed to normal commercial traffic. PortWatch's most recently published day, 2026-05-24, recorded just 4 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day; scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports reached 126, a figure that reflects a different methodology and should not be read as contradicting the PortWatch count but rather as capturing shorter-haul or rerouted port activity. Some 300 vessels are currently anchored or stopped in the region, and 40 events were indexed in the past 24 hours. The Hormuz Index places current Crisis Pressure at 94 (extreme), unchanged over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor; separately, the 30-day Escalation Probability forecast stands at 62 (high), also unchanged, with Polymarket closure odds as its primary driver. The divergence between the two figures reflects that present conditions are already severe while markets see meaningful but not dominant probability of further escalation over the coming month. Brent crude held at $92.89, gaining +0.39% over the past 24 hours, as price action tracks diplomatic uncertainty rather than any relief. The New York Times reports the US military has guided roughly 70 vessels through the strait over three weeks; the IRGC separately claimed 28 ships transited in one recent 24-hour window. Iran publicly contradicts US claims that the blockade has been lifted, and an Omani warning of a suspected floating mine adds fresh navigational risk for insurers and operators.