1 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains in active closure, with operational data pointing to near-total suppression of through-traffic: PortWatch's most recent published day (2026-05-24) logged just 4 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day. Separately, scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports registered 101 vessels, a figure reflecting a different methodology and geographic scope and not directly comparable to the PortWatch number. The 219 vessels currently anchored or stopped underscore the backlog accumulating in regional waters. Brent crude responded with a 24-hour gain of +3.11% to $95.41, with WTI at $91.98, as 40 indexed events in the past 24 hours kept market sentiment on edge. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits at 94 (extreme), with physical transit deviation as its top contributor, reflecting conditions on the ground. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite stands at 62 (high), driven primarily by Polymarket closure odds; that figure is a forward-looking probability assessment, not a measure of present intensity, and the gap between the two scores signals that markets see some path toward de-escalation even as current conditions remain severe. Diplomatic signals are contradictory: Iran has threatened a full blockade and quit talks, while President Trump has publicly forecast a deal to reopen the strait within a week, and separate negotiation threads on a broader ceasefire continue.