7 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central operational flashpoint in the broader Iran conflict, now past its 100-day mark. Iranian forces launched multiple drones toward the strait within the last six hours; US Central Command intercepted four and has previously struck Iranian radar sites in the area, marking a pattern of direct kinetic exchange that is compressing commercial shipping options. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite stands at 94, in the extreme band, unchanged over the past 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the primary driver. That figure reflects conditions on the ground: PortWatch's most recently published day (2026-05-31) recorded only 10 transits through the strait, compared with a pre-crisis baseline of 95 per day. Scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports registered 184 vessels, a separate methodology that captures regional port calls rather than strait transits and should not be read as equivalent. The 30-day Escalation Forecast sits at 62 (high), with Polymarket closure odds its top contributor; the gap between a present-conditions extreme rating and a forward-looking high rating suggests markets are pricing some probability of stabilization without yet acting on it. Brent crude is at $98.29, unchanged over 24 hours (+0.00%), consistent with a market that has already absorbed the crisis premium. Iran's confirmation of a formal tolling scheme, charging ships up to $2 million per transit, adds a structural revenue dimension to what began as a security disruption.