10 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut to normal commercial traffic. PortWatch's most recently published daily count, for 2026-06-07, recorded just 2 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 94 per day, a collapse of more than 97 percent. Scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports show 155 vessels in the most recent period, a figure reflecting a different methodology and scope than the PortWatch strait-transit count; 278 vessels remain anchored or stopped across the region. Against that backdrop, Brent crude rose +3.23% in 24 hours to $95.43, with WTI at $92.76. The Hormuz Crisis Pressure composite sits at 94 (extreme), unchanged over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top driver. The 30-day Escalation Forecast composite stands at 68 (high), also unchanged, led by Polymarket closure-probability pricing; that the present-conditions index and the forward-looking forecast diverge by 26 points is worth noting for position holders. The human cost is escalating: per gCaptain, two crew members are missing and one injured after a suspected U.S. strike on a tanker off Oman. The IRGC, per Iranian state media, claims it struck the Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet with drones and hit U.S. targets at al-Azraq Airbase in Jordan with long-range missiles. Tehran's Foreign Ministry is now publicly reassessing the diplomatic track, per IRNA, citing repeated ceasefire violations.

Recorded