14 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is heading toward a negotiated reopening after the United States and Iran announced a peace deal, with formal signing expected next Friday according to Reuters, Politico, CBS News, and multiple corroborating outlets. Trump has stated the agreement covers the strait and nuclear weapons but not regime change, per VOI.id. Brent crude fell -3.87% to $83.95 on the news, though the EIA cautioned via LiveNOW from FOX that consumer gas prices will not drop immediately. Physical conditions at the strait remain severely stressed: the Crisis Pressure index stands at 94 (extreme), with physical transit deviation as its top contributor, and 500 vessels remain anchored or stopped in the region. The divergence between that state reading and the 30-day Escalation Forecast of 68 (high), driven primarily by Kalshi forward contracts, reflects market participants pricing in resolution while operational disruption persists on the water. PortWatch recorded 2 transits on 2026-06-07, its most recently published day, against a pre-crisis baseline of 94 per day; scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports reached 187 vessels, a figure using different methodology that cannot be directly compared to the PortWatch count. Forty indexed events were recorded in the past 24 hours. The deal remains unsigned, and physical normalization at the strait will lag any diplomatic ceremony.

Recorded