15 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under a U.S. naval blockade pending the formal signing of an Iran-U.S. agreement, which USNI News reports is scheduled for Friday. Until that document is executed, vessels attempting to reach Iranian ports are directed to comply with U.S. naval orders, leaving the strait functionally restricted for another trading session at minimum. Scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports registered 93 vessels, a figure that uses different methodology than IMF PortWatch and should not be read against PortWatch's published count of 2 transits on 2026-06-07, when the waterway was operating well below its pre-crisis baseline of 94 vessels per day. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits at 93 (extreme), with physical transit deviation as the top contributor; the 30-day Escalation Forecast stands at 63 (high), down five points, reflecting improving closure-odds on Polymarket. Those two readings diverge meaningfully: current physical conditions remain extreme even as forward-looking market sentiment moderates. Brent eased 0.97% to $83.68, consistent with cautious optimism about the deal framework. Diplomatically, China and Japan have welcomed the first-phase memorandum, per state media, while Iranian state media reports that Article One's Hormuz provision was the last sticking point in negotiations. Israel's continued operations in Lebanon, also reported by Iranian state media, add a residual complication to the broader ceasefire architecture.