18 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz entered a new operational phase after U.S. Central Command announced the formal lifting of its naval blockade of Iran, following a 60-day memorandum of understanding signed by Washington and Tehran, per USNI News and gCaptain. The immediate price signal was sharp: Brent shed -6.21% over 24 hours to $79.12, with WTI settling at $75.25. Yet the physical picture at the strait remains deeply stressed. The Hormuz Index crisis pressure composite holds at 92, rated extreme, with physical transit deviation still the top contributor. PortWatch recorded 0 transits on 2026-06-14, its most recent published day, against a pre-crisis baseline of 94 per day; scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports reached 251, though that figure uses a different methodology and cannot be equated with the PortWatch count. Some 419 vessels remain anchored or stopped. The 30-day escalation forecast stands at 52, rated elevated, one point lower than yesterday, with Polymarket closure odds now the top driver of that forward estimate. The gap between the two index readings is significant: present-conditions stress is extreme while the forward view is merely elevated, a divergence that reflects genuine uncertainty about execution. Maritime organizations are pressing the Trump administration for safe-transit guidance as mine risks persist, per gCaptain, and Maersk has kept shipping restrictions in place despite the ceasefire deal, per Business Insurance. Qatar's return of an empty LNG tanker through the strait, reported by gCaptain, offers a tentative first proof-of-concept, but the industry has signaled a long road ahead before normal operations resume.

Recorded