28 June 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains in an extreme operational posture even as diplomatic signals flash cautiously positive: U.S. and Iranian officials have agreed to halt strikes and resume talks in Doha, according to Ynetnews and Middle East Eye, though Al Jazeera reports both sides were still trading attacks as the ceasefire faltered. The Crisis Pressure index stands at 90, rated extreme, with physical transit deviation the top contributor; this is a measure of present conditions and diverges meaningfully from the 30-day Escalation Forecast of 68, rated high, which reflects where the situation is projected to move rather than where it stands now. On throughput, PortWatch's most recently published data, for 2026-06-21, recorded 5 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 93 per day; separately, an independent scraper of Gulf-port arrivals counted 345 vessel arrivals in the most recent 24-hour window, a figure that uses different methodology and cannot be directly compared to the PortWatch number. Zero vessels are currently anchored or stopped in the strait. Iran's foreign minister Araghchi stated publicly, per Taghrib News, that responsibility for managing and reopening the strait rests solely with the Islamic Republic. Brent at $73.14 reflects a modest risk-on bid of +0.74% as traders weigh a fragile ceasefire against structural disruption that one major shipping firm has described as a new normal.

Recorded