Strait of Hormuz · Daily brief · UTC
13 July 2026.
- 01
U.S. military will begin enforcing a new maritime blockade of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz at 4pm Tuesday, per Axios and Reuters.
- 02
Brent crude surged +9.75% in 24 hours to $83.42 as markets priced the blockade announcement.
- 03
The Crisis Pressure index hit 90 (extreme), while the 30-day Escalation Forecast stands at 62 (high), a divergence driven by event pressure versus longer-term Polymarket closure odds.
Situation
The Strait of Hormuz is moving toward a formal U.S.-enforced interdiction regime. Reuters and gCaptain report that the United States will resume its maritime blockade of Iran beginning Tuesday, with enforcement set for 4pm; Trump separately stated that Washington will charge ships 20% on all cargo shipped through the strait, per Yahoo Finance UK. The operational picture on the water is already stressed: 537 vessels are anchored or stopped in the region, and scraper-derived 24h arrivals at Gulf ports reached 348 in the most recent period. PortWatch's most recent published count, covering 2026-07-05, logged 34 transits through the strait, a fraction of the pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day. Brent responded immediately, climbing +9.75% to $83.42, with WTI settling at $78.16. The site's Crisis Pressure index registers 90 (extreme), up 4 points in 24 hours, with event pressure as the top contributor. That reading diverges meaningfully from the 30-day Escalation Forecast of 62 (high), which is driven primarily by Polymarket closure odds; current conditions are far more acute than the forward composite suggests. The UN Secretary-General has urged direct U.S.-Iran talks, per Jurist.org, but no negotiating framework is in place ahead of Tuesday's enforcement deadline. Forty indexed events in the past 24 hours reflect the pace of escalation.
Cite as
Straits, “Hormuz daily brief”, 13 Jul 2026.
straits.live/briefs/2026-07-13