13 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz has entered direct-combat conditions. Reuters reports the United States has launched new strikes targeting Iranian capabilities related to the strait, while the UAE confirmed to Reuters that Iranian cruise missiles struck two tankers, killing one crew member. The US has also reinstated a formal blockade, a move that, per ABC News, eliminates the last remaining concession offered to Iran in preliminary nuclear talks. Against that backdrop, President Trump announced a 20% levy on all vessels transiting the strait, a fee the New York Times calculates could double total shipping costs. Brent crude has responded with a +7.62% gain over 24 hours, settling at $84.31, a move that reflects both supply-risk premium and the unquantified cost of the proposed transit charge. Operationally, 483 vessels are currently anchored or stopped in the region, and scraper-derived 24-hour arrivals at Gulf ports stand at 336, a figure using different methodology than PortWatch and not directly comparable to it. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-07-05, recorded 34 transits through the strait, against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day. The Hormuz Crisis Pressure index stands at 90 (extreme), driven primarily by event pressure; the separate 30-day Escalation Forecast sits at 62 (high), with Polymarket closure odds as its top contributor. The gap between those two readings suggests markets are pricing acute stress while structured forecasts have not fully caught up.