20 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is under acute operational stress following a cluster of strikes that forced the abandonment of a burning tanker, per UKMTO and gCaptain. Greek tanker manager Dynacom, previously the largest non-Iranian commercial operator still transiting the strait after the conflict began, confirmed two of its managed vessels were struck by projectiles of unknown origin off the coast of Oman, Reuters reports. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-07-12, recorded 10 transits through the strait, against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day; that data carries a multi-day lag consistent with PortWatch's weekly Tuesday publication cycle. Independently, a scraper-derived 24h arrivals count at Gulf ports recorded 330 vessel movements, though that figure reflects a different geographic scope and methodology and cannot be directly compared to the PortWatch strait count. At the time of writing, 349 vessels were anchored or stopped in the region. Brent was trading at $89.00, having shed 2.34% over the prior 24 hours, a drop consistent with demand-destruction fears outweighing supply-disruption risk at this moment. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top driver; the 30-day Escalation Forecast composite sits in the elevated band, also flat, with Polymarket closure odds as the primary input. The divergence between an extreme present-state reading and an elevated forecast band suggests markets are not yet pricing a sustained closure as the base case.