22 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz is now in its eleventh consecutive night of direct U.S.-Iran exchanges, with no sign of operational pause on either side. Al Jazeera confirms the eleventh U.S. airstrike cycle; Marine Insight reports a fresh Iranian tanker attack in the strait, though both sets of claims remain single-source and the full damage picture is unconfirmed. IRGC state media claims its forces destroyed radar installations near Kuwait's Ali Al Salem air base as part of Operation Nasr-2, a claim not independently confirmed by U.S. or Kuwaiti sources. The physical pressure on throughput is severe: PortWatch recorded just 15 transits on 2026-07-19 (its most recent published day, with the standard multi-day lag), against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day. Separately, port arrivals across the Hormuz-area ports totaled 259 vessels in the most recent 24 hours, a different measure covering five ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides. At 11:52 UTC, 446 vessels were anchored or stopped in the region. Markets are pricing the disruption sharply: Brent climbed +9.79% over 24 hours. The site's Hormuz Index reads Crisis Pressure at extreme, flat over the period, with physical transit deviation as the primary driver. The Escalation Forecast sits at elevated but is easing, led by Polymarket contract pricing. The two composites diverge, reflecting a market that is hedging toward de-escalation even as physical conditions remain at their worst recorded band. Secretary Rubio signaled continued U.S. willingness to negotiate, per The Express Tribune, while simultaneously warning Iran against strait control, per News Mobile.