24 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic, with PortWatch's most recently published day (2026-07-19) recording 15 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day; that figure carries a multi-day lag, as PortWatch publishes weekly on Tuesdays. Port arrivals across the Hormuz-area ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides totalled 462 vessels in the most recent 24 hours, a separate methodology that reflects port-side congestion rather than strait throughput. At 13:19 UTC, 324 vessels were anchored or stopped in the region, and Brent crude stood at $97.61, down 1.55% over the prior 24 hours, a softening that reflects competing pressures: supply disruption risk pulling prices up, demand-destruction fears pulling them down. The Crisis Pressure index sits in the extreme band and is rising, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor; the Escalation Forecast sits in the high band and is also rising, driven primarily by Polymarket escalation contract pricing. Those two indices measure different things and their divergence warrants attention: elevated but not yet matched state and forecast readings suggest the market is pricing sustained disruption rather than an imminent acute escalation. Diplomatically, Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal relayed through the Iraqi prime minister, per International Business Times (unverified, single-source), while drone strikes on Irbil and reported CENTCOM strikes on Iranian military sites, per India Today and Crypto Briefing respectively (both unverified, single-source), signal continued widening of the conflict footprint. Kpler's Matt Smith told CNBC the strait is unlikely to reopen before next year.