25 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of a contested and escalating crisis. Iranian state media and IRGC officials assert the capability and willingness to close the strait, with a top IRGC general quoted by JNS.org declaring closure is achievable on demand; US and CENTCOM positions, as reflected in reported vessel transit activity, dispute that any effective closure is in force, and the physical picture remains unresolved. This site's posture is a cautious closed on carrier routing, but the transit picture is genuinely contested. PortWatch data for 2026-07-19, the most recent published day, recorded 15 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day, a figure reflecting methodology limited to strait transits; separately, port arrivals across the Hormuz-area ports in the most recent 24 hours reached 582 vessels, covering both Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides, under a different counting method that should not be equated with the PortWatch number. At 11:52 UTC, 405 vessels were anchored or stopped in the region. Brent was trading at $96.78, off 0.90% over 24 hours, with the modest decline suggesting markets are pricing in sustained disruption rather than acute shock. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top contributor; the Escalation Forecast sits in the high band, also flat, led by Polymarket escalation contract pricing. The two indices diverge in band, reflecting a gap between current physical conditions and forward risk expectations. UKMTO has reported a maritime incident in the Gulf of Oman involving an oil tanker and military forces, per Mehr News, a Tehran state media outlet whose claim has not been independently confirmed.