25 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under acute operational stress, with the Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite in the extreme band and the Escalation Forecast in the high band; both composites are easing over the past 24 hours, though they diverge in character: current-state pressure is driven primarily by physical transit deviation, while the forward-looking forecast is shaped chiefly by prediction-market signals. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-07-19, recorded 15 transits through the strait against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day; a separate methodology covering five ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides logged 451 port arrivals in the most recent 24-hour window. At 23:52 UTC, 531 vessels were anchored or stopped in the region, and 18 indexed events were recorded in the preceding 24 hours. Brent settled at $96.78, off 0.90% over 24 hours, as markets absorbed conflicting signals. The IRGC, per Iranian state media, claims its forces destroyed 11 US aircraft over 15 days of combat; CENTCOM has issued no confirmation and the claim is not independently verified. Separately, unverified single-source reporting cites a UKMTO maritime incident in the Gulf of Oman involving an oil tanker and military forces, and Iranian state media alleges US strikes on Iranian search-and-rescue vessels constituted a war crime, a charge the US government has not acknowledged. Saudi-Houthi exchange of strikes continues, per multiple unverified single-source outlets, adding a secondary pressure vector on regional shipping confidence.