28 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz crisis entered a sharper regional frame after Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles while the United States and Saudi Arabia conducted strikes against militias in Iraq, per AP News. That sequence now dominates the operational and diplomatic picture. Separately, The Defense Post and a single Arabic-language outlet report that Iranian Revolutionary Guards halted three oil tankers in the strait; the claim is unverified and no independent corroboration has been published. Iran has also reportedly rejected a Hormuz deal, enraging mediators, per Israel National News, while Iran and Japan held diplomatic talks on strait security, per Tasnim. Brent crude stood at $87.99, a gain of 1.88% over the prior 24 hours, as of 10:42 UTC. Port arrivals across the Hormuz-area ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides reached 715 in the most recent 24-hour window; that figure uses a different methodology from IMF PortWatch data and the two cannot be directly compared. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-07-23, logged 10 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 per day. The Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite sits in the extreme band, easing over the past 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top driver. The Escalation Forecast composite sits in the elevated band, also easing, with Polymarket escalation contracts leading; the two composites diverge and measure distinct things.