30 July 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under severe operational stress, with the Hormuz Index Crisis Pressure composite holding in the extreme band, driven primarily by physical transit deviation. Port arrivals across Hormuz-area ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides totaled 658 vessels in the most recent 24 hours. For context on throughput trends, PortWatch recorded 10 transits on 2026-07-23, the most recent date in its weekly Tuesday publication cycle, against a pre-crisis baseline of 88 transits per day. At 17:52 UTC, 1,255 vessels were anchored or stopped in the region, and 22 indexed events were recorded in the preceding 24 hours. The Escalation Forecast composite sits in the elevated band, with Polymarket escalation contracts the top contributor; that reading diverges from the state composite, which reflects current physical disruption rather than forward probability. The most consequential claim circulating is Iranian state media's assertion that IRGC ballistic missiles destroyed three US F-35 fighter jets and killed military personnel at Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan, said to be in retaliation for US strikes on Qeshm Island; the claim originates with IRNA and Mehr News and has not been confirmed by US or CENTCOM sources. Separately, a drone strike near the Suez Canal damaged two gas vessels at Damietta, according to unverified single-source reporting. Brent stood at $89.26, down 1.19% over 24 hours, as of 17:52 UTC. One positive signal: Qatar moved its first LNG cargo through the strait in three weeks, per gCaptain.

Recorded