5 August 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under acute operational stress even as diplomatic signals intensify. Two independent outlets report that both Iran and the United States say a deal on the strait is close; separately, per Iranian state media (not independently confirmed), Iran and Oman have finalized or are near finalizing a shipping route agreement, with Iran claiming supervisory control over inbound vessels under its terms. Those are distinct negotiating tracks and should not be read as a single unified settlement. The Australian Financial Review, citing unverified reporting, notes Iran would gain control of inbound ships under the proposed Oman arrangement. Shipping industry groups are contesting transit fees tied to the crisis, per Briefs Finance. On the throughput picture: PortWatch recorded 2 transits on 2026-08-02, against a pre-crisis baseline of 73 per day; that count is the most recent published day and carries a multi-day lag by design. Port arrivals across Hormuz-area ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides reached 656 vessels in the most recent 24 hours, a separate methodology that cannot be compared directly to the PortWatch transit figure. The Crisis Pressure index sits in the extreme band, rising, with physical transit deviation as its lead contributor. The Escalation Forecast index sits in the elevated band, also rising, driven chiefly by Polymarket escalation contracts. The two indices diverge in their top signals, a gap worth watching as negotiators close in. Brent stood at $79.36 as of 23:52 UTC.