6 August 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under extreme pressure, with the Hormuz Index state composite holding in the extreme band, flat over the past 24 hours, driven primarily by physical transit deviation. PortWatch recorded 2 transits on 2026-08-02, against a pre-crisis baseline of 73 per day; that figure is now four days old, reflecting PortWatch's weekly Tuesday publication cycle. Separately, port arrivals across the Hormuz-area ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides reached 351 vessels in the most recent 24 hours, a distinct methodology not comparable to the PortWatch transit count. At 14:53 UTC, 305 vessels were holding position away from berth, excluding ships within 25 km of a working port. Brent stood at $80.93, up 1.77% over 24 hours as of that same snapshot. On the diplomatic track, Iran says it has reached an agreement in principle with Oman on proposed shipping lanes, per gCaptain relaying an Iranian claim; that claim has not been independently corroborated, and multiple unverified reports indicate US agreement is still required before any arrangement is implemented. The Escalation Forecast composite sits in the elevated band and has been easing over 24 hours, with Polymarket escalation contracts as the top contributor, diverging from the unchanged extreme state reading. Twenty-six events were indexed in the past 24 hours, including an unconfirmed Houthi claim of a ballistic missile strike on a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden.

Recorded