7 August 2026.

Situation

Negotiations between Iran and Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain active but unresolved, with CBS News carrying two independent reports confirming talks are continuing. The Trump administration has described a deal as imminent and CBS News separately reports that US officials expect an agreement soon, though Iran has publicly stated the discussions do not constitute a reopening, per WUSA9's relay of an Iranian claim. That gap between Washington's framing and Tehran's leaves the operational status of the strait unchanged for now. On the physical picture: port arrivals across the Hormuz-area ports, covering both Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides, reached 466 vessels in the most recent 24 hours. Separately, our AIS tracking recorded 311 vessels holding position away from berth as of 23:53 UTC, a figure that excludes vessels within 25 km of a working port. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-08-02, recorded 2 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 73 per day; that count is now five days old, consistent with PortWatch's weekly Tuesday publication cycle. The Hormuz Index state composite sits in the extreme band and is rising, with physical transit deviation as the top driver. The forecast composite sits in the elevated band but is easing, led by Polymarket escalation contracts. The two composites are pointing in different directions, a divergence worth watching as deal talks either crystallize or stall. Brent was at $82.27, down 0.54% over the prior 24 hours, as of 23:53 UTC; futures markets are closed and that figure is a carried-forward pre-close reading, not a live signal.

Recorded