10 August 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial transit, with PortWatch recording just 2 transits on 2026-08-02, against a pre-crisis baseline of 73 per day; that figure is PortWatch's most recently published day and carries the multi-day lag typical of its weekly Tuesday release. Port arrivals across Hormuz-area ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides reached 415 vessels in the most recent 24 hours, reflecting coastal and near-port activity rather than through-strait transit, and should not be read alongside the PortWatch figure as a single measure. At 23:53 UTC, Brent stood at $87.62, up 3.92% over the prior 24 hours; 322 vessels were holding position away from berth at that moment, a count that excludes ships within 25 kilometers of a working port. The Hormuz Crisis Pressure index sits in the extreme band, flat over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as its top driver; the Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band and is rising, with Polymarket escalation contracts as the lead contributor. The two composites diverge: conditions on the water are steady at an extreme reading while the forward outlook is worsening. On the diplomatic track, Iran and Oman are continuing negotiations on a safe-navigation mechanism, per Iranian state media, which should be treated as a claim. Separately, gCaptain reports, without yet independent confirmation, that President Trump demanded Iran pay compensation for deaths he attributes to it, a development that has further clouded prospects for a near-term reopening deal. A sanctioned tanker carrying Russian crude ran aground off Oman, producing an oil slick of approximately 390 square kilometers, per gCaptain.

Recorded