11 August 2026.

Situation

The Strait of Hormuz remains under severe restriction. PortWatch's most recent published day, 2026-08-08, recorded 8 transits against a pre-crisis baseline of 73 per day. Separately, port arrivals across Hormuz-area ports on both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman sides reached 802 vessels in the most recent 24 hours; that figure uses a different methodology and must not be read alongside the PortWatch transit count. As of 23:53 UTC, 389 vessels were holding position away from berth, excluding ships within 25 km of a working port. Brent stood at $89.25, up 1.69% over 24 hours, as of 23:53 UTC. The sharpest contested development in the past nine hours: The Hill reports the US military disabled a Panama-flagged tanker defying the blockade, while Dailynewsegypt, an unverified single source, frames the same episode as a US Navy strike on a commercial vessel. The two accounts have not been independently corroborated, and the claim is disputed. Per Iranian state media, not independently confirmed, Iran's SNSC chief states the strait will reopen only when the United States accepts Iran's conditions; optimism around any Iran-US deal is described as fading by a single unverified source at WDRB. The site's Crisis Pressure index sits in the extreme band, easing over 24 hours, with physical transit deviation as the top driver. The Escalation Forecast sits in the elevated band and is rising, driven by prediction-market escalation contracts. That divergence, a moderating state reading alongside a rising forecast, warrants close attention from traders and shipping professionals.

Recorded